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So, this is going to be a longish thread on the NIFTY.

In my last analysis, had mentioned that there wasn't enough data to analyze the NIFTY yet. In 2 weeks we now have more data to analyze.

Weekly Charts first:
1. The NIFTY rebounded in March - Spril from > -3SD & has now tagged and exceeded the +2SD for Six Consecutive weeks.

2. There have been 12 prior instances since 1998 when it has tagged or exceeded the +2SD for >= 5 weeks.

3. 11 prior instances. This is the 12th. 4 streaks ended @ 5 weeks, 3 streaks at 6 weeks, 2 streaks at 7 weeks, 1 at 8 weeks and the last one @ 12 weeks.

We have already done 6 cons. weeks this rally. That means good chance we stop tagging the +2SD in the next couple of weeks.

4. There is an outside chance - say 10% - we do a blowout, but we'll come back to that.

5. What happens when the NIFTY stops tagging the +2SD? Either a mild consolidation to + 1 SD [currently @1263 and rising] or a pretty decent correction. Mild Correction happened 4/11 times.

6. The pretty decent correction happened to either of
-2SD 5/11 times [currently @ 10500] Or to
- 20WSMA 2/11 times [ currently @ 11800]

7. Why am I not sure of the timing? RSI can go up another 2 - 3 points. Weekly RSI tends to reverse from 76 - 77 or higher levels. BUT

What are dividend yield funds?

A thread 🧵👇

Bonus: Comments on HDFC Dividend Yield Fund (NFO)

1/ NFO: New Fund Offer is like an IPO of Mutual Fund Scheme. The scheme issues units to its subscribers at Face Value which is usually Rs. 10 per unit.

2/ The dividend yield is a financial metric that shows the amount paid by a company to its shareholders as a percentage of its stock price. Eg: A dividend of Rs. 10 on a stock of Rs. 200 would indicate a dividend yield of 5%.

3/ A dividend yield fund is a scheme that invests predominantly in companies having a track record of high dividend payouts along with occasional buybacks in order to return money to its shareholders.

4/ The fund bets on companies with stable cash flows along with predictable earnings. These are mature companies growing at a normal pace with lesser opportunities to reinvest their profits at a higher rate of return and hence chose to pay hefty dividends or consider buybacks.

1/n: In the new decade, the fin-services sector will look beyond the current open banking ‘phase’ and towards a future of fintech enabled marketplaces and complete financial automation, where the traditional banking model is turned on its head and requires a dramatic rethink,

2/n: emphasizing:
1) Experience over Products;
2) Data over Assets;
3) Partnering over the build or buy;
4) Shared access over ownership.

3/n: FinTechs are now increasingly global, and threatening traditional banks by ushering in product-stack changes- from ‘un-bundling to re-bundling’, from ‘mono-line to multi-line’.

4/n: Incumbent Banks will recognize the value of the financial-cloud and speed up their digital transformation efforts to meet customer expectations derived from fintechs with new operating and business models.

5/n: In the medium term, transactional banking (i.e. manufacture white-label versions of specific products and services) will gain traction. Distributed Ledger, API banking, and AI will become critical building blocks for both banks and financial services providers —

1) Single most important principle in the field of interpersonal relations is Empathic Communication, which means "Seek first to understand, then to be understood"

#Leadership #Communication #empathy

2) There are four forms of communication: Reading, Writing, Speaking and Listening. We spend most of our waking hours communicating. The ability to do it well is absolutely critical for human effectiveness

3) We spend years learning how to read, write and speak but how about listening? What education or training have we had that enables us to listen so that we can really deeply understand another human being.

4)  We typically seek first to be understood. Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply. They are either speaking or preparing to speak.

5) We are usually listening at 4 levels:
Ignoring - not listening at all
Pretending - "Yeah. Uh-huh. Right"
Selective Listening - hearing only selective parts
Attentive listening - paying attention and focusing on words
But we should practice the 5th level : Empathic Listening