So, this is going to be a longish thread on the NIFTY.

In my last analysis, had mentioned that there wasn't enough data to analyze the NIFTY yet. In 2 weeks we now have more data to analyze.

Weekly Charts first:
1. The NIFTY rebounded in March - Spril from > -3SD & has now tagged and exceeded the +2SD for Six Consecutive weeks.

2. There have been 12 prior instances since 1998 when it has tagged or exceeded the +2SD for >= 5 weeks.

3. 11 prior instances. This is the 12th. 4 streaks ended @ 5 weeks, 3 streaks at 6 weeks, 2 streaks at 7 weeks, 1 at 8 weeks and the last one @ 12 weeks.

We have already done 6 cons. weeks this rally. That means good chance we stop tagging the +2SD in the next couple of weeks.

4. There is an outside chance - say 10% - we do a blowout, but we'll come back to that.

5. What happens when the NIFTY stops tagging the +2SD? Either a mild consolidation to + 1 SD [currently @1263 and rising] or a pretty decent correction. Mild Correction happened 4/11 times.

6. The pretty decent correction happened to either of
-2SD 5/11 times [currently @ 10500] Or to
- 20WSMA 2/11 times [ currently @ 11800]

7. Why am I not sure of the timing? RSI can go up another 2 - 3 points. Weekly RSI tends to reverse from 76 - 77 or higher levels. BUT