To say "the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is 440 GtCO₂" [add favorite number] is highly misleading

Taking a narrow 67–33% range, the value is 230–670 GtCO₂, but full range (left) could be −1000 - 2000 GtCO₂... (yes, could be negative or huge)

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https://t.co/T9GvpoH0l8

When I wrote "studies ranging from −100 to about 800 GtCO₂" back in 2018 I was being very conservative (there were no full uncertainty analyses then) https://t.co/KhyA1rYpDJ

Good to see papers (now) being much more explicit about the uncertainty & range...

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I have problems with the remaining carbon budgets presented as a single number, instead of a range. Is there any other climate variable presented as a one-sided probability? The ECS, eg, is presented as a range.
https://t.co/KhyA1rYpDJ

Good to see the authors use ranges!

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The uncertainties on remaining carbon budgets are huge. Let that sink in.

There is a decent chance the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is negative... (ie, too late)

[The uncertainties here are 33-66%, IPCC would usually take "likely" which is more like 16-84%]

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Many of these issues were discussed by me https://t.co/KhyA1rYpDJ & @Oliver_Geden https://t.co/Kj7heJTALN

Back in 2016 I raised many of the same issues: https://t.co/bjOnjQWOqc

[I guess I should publish articles & not commentaries, as perhaps people would read them...]

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Here is a blog where I discuss many of these issues, including the uncertainties & the existence of negative remaining carbon budgets for 1.5°C [coincidentally from the model that gave the small budget for 1.5°C in AR5, oh, wonder why...]
https://t.co/6H4k5GTHf6

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॥ॐ॥
अस्य श्री गायत्री ध्यान श्लोक:
(gAyatri dhyAna shlOka)
• This shloka to meditate personified form of वेदमाता गायत्री was given by Bhagwaan Brahma to Sage yAgnavalkya (याज्ञवल्क्य).

• 14th shloka of गायत्री कवचम् which is taken from वशिष्ठ संहिता, goes as follows..


• मुक्ता-विद्रुम-हेम-नील धवलच्छायैर्मुखस्त्रीक्षणै:।
muktA vidruma hEma nIla dhavalachhAyaiH mukhaistrlkShaNaiH.

• युक्तामिन्दुकला-निबद्धमुकुटां तत्वार्थवर्णात्मिकाम्॥
yuktAmindukalA nibaddha makutAm tatvArtha varNAtmikam.

• गायत्रीं वरदाभयाङ्कुश कशां शुभ्रं कपालं गदाम्।
gAyatrIm vardAbhayANkusha kashAm shubhram kapAlam gadAm.

• शंखं चक्रमथारविन्दयुगलं हस्तैर्वहन्ती भजै॥
shankham chakramathArvinda yugalam hastairvahantIm bhajE.

This shloka describes the form of वेदमाता गायत्री.

• It says, "She has five faces which shine with the colours of a Pearl 'मुक्ता', Coral 'विद्रुम', Gold 'हेम्', Sapphire 'नील्', & a Diamond 'धवलम्'.

• These five faces are symbolic of the five primordial elements called पञ्चमहाभूत:' which makes up the entire existence.

• These are the elements of SPACE, FIRE, WIND, EARTH & WATER.

• All these five faces shine with three eyes 'त्रिक्षणै:'.

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