This time around, it is still hiking rates and doing QT!
Recession seems inevitable and highly likely the stock market is about to get a wake up call.
This cycle is quite similar to the 2000-2002 TMT bust...
Lots of sharp bear market rallies, tech underperformance and similar to the TMT bust, very high odds that recession will land about a year after the start of the bear market in stocks.
Earnings declines are not priced in!
This time around, it is still hiking rates and doing QT!
Recession seems inevitable and highly likely the stock market is about to get a wake up call.
$SPX consensus EPS estimate for '23 is still flat vs. '22 and most money managers are anchored off this unrealistic number.
$SPX earnings likely to decline materially during '23 + this is likely to be the final shoe to drop.
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The best morning routine?
Starts the night before.
9 evening habits that make all the difference:
1. Write down tomorrow's 3:3:3 plan
• 3 hours on your most important project
• 3 shorter tasks
• 3 maintenance activities
Defining a "productive day" is crucial.
Or else you'll never be at peace (even with excellent output).
Learn more
2. End the workday with a shutdown ritual
Create a short shutdown ritual (hat-tip to Cal Newport). Close your laptop, plug in the charger, spend 2 minutes tidying your desk. Then say, "shutdown."
Separating your life and work is key.
3. Journal 1 beautiful life moment
Delicious tacos, presentation you crushed, a moment of inner peace. Write it down.
Gratitude programs a mindset of abundance.
4. Lay out clothes
Get exercise clothes ready for tomorrow. Upon waking up, jump rope for 2 mins. It will activate your mind + body.
Starts the night before.
9 evening habits that make all the difference:
1. Write down tomorrow's 3:3:3 plan
• 3 hours on your most important project
• 3 shorter tasks
• 3 maintenance activities
Defining a "productive day" is crucial.
Or else you'll never be at peace (even with excellent output).
Learn more
How to be 5x more productive.
— Ben Meer (@SystemSunday) August 1, 2022
A best-selling author\u2019s 3-3-3 Method:
2. End the workday with a shutdown ritual
Create a short shutdown ritual (hat-tip to Cal Newport). Close your laptop, plug in the charger, spend 2 minutes tidying your desk. Then say, "shutdown."
Separating your life and work is key.
3. Journal 1 beautiful life moment
Delicious tacos, presentation you crushed, a moment of inner peace. Write it down.
Gratitude programs a mindset of abundance.
4. Lay out clothes
Get exercise clothes ready for tomorrow. Upon waking up, jump rope for 2 mins. It will activate your mind + body.
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I think a plausible explanation is that whatever Corbyn says or does, his critics will denounce - no matter how much hypocrisy it necessitates.
Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel
He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:
He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:
He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party
One of the oddest features of the Labour tax row is how raising allowances, which the media allowed the LDs to describe as progressive (in spite of evidence to contrary) through the coalition years, is now seen by everyone as very right wing
— Tom Clark (@prospect_clark) November 2, 2018
Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel
He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:
He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:
He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party
1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
I'm increasingly interested in the idea of "personal moats" in the context of careers.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
Moats should be:
- Hard to learn and hard to do (but perhaps easier for you)
- Skills that are rare and valuable
- Legible
- Compounding over time
- Unique to your own talents & interests https://t.co/bB3k1YcH5b
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
People talk about \u201cpassive income\u201d a lot but not about \u201cpassive social capital\u201d or \u201cpassive networking\u201d or \u201cpassive knowledge gaining\u201d but that\u2019s what you can architect if you have a thing and it grows over time without intensive constant effort to sustain it
— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) November 22, 2018
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
Things that look like moats but likely aren\u2019t or may fade:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
- Proprietary networks
- Being something other than one of the best at any tournament style-game
- Many "awards"
- Twitter followers or general reach without "respect"
- Anything that depends on information asymmetry https://t.co/abjxesVIh9
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.
