Thread on @AnthropicAI's cool new paper on how large models are both predictable (scaling laws) and surprising (capability jumps).
1. That there’s a capability jump in 3-digit addition for GPT3 (left) is unsurprising. Good challenge to better predict when such jump will occur.

2. The MMLU capability jump (center) is very different b/c it’s many diverse knowledge questions with no simple algorithm like addition.
This jump is surprising and I’d like to understand better why it happens at all.
3. Program Synthesis jump (right) feels like it should be in between 1 and 2. Less diversity than 2 and we can also imagine models grokking certain concepts in programming leading to a jump.
I’d love to see more work on this topic of predictability and surprise and how they relate to forecasting alignment/risk.
Related work:
1. @gwern's list of capability jumps and classic article on scaling
https://t.co/C8qljJa13A
https://t.co/er791mhbjP
2. @JacobSteinhardt's insightful blog series. https://t.co/0ckLgOgBiV
3. Lukas Finnveden's post on GPT-n extrapolation /scaling on different task shttps://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2SNji3jXaLGhBeYP/extrapolating-gpt-n-performance

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॥ॐ॥
अस्य श्री गायत्री ध्यान श्लोक:
(gAyatri dhyAna shlOka)
• This shloka to meditate personified form of वेदमाता गायत्री was given by Bhagwaan Brahma to Sage yAgnavalkya (याज्ञवल्क्य).

• 14th shloka of गायत्री कवचम् which is taken from वशिष्ठ संहिता, goes as follows..


• मुक्ता-विद्रुम-हेम-नील धवलच्छायैर्मुखस्त्रीक्षणै:।
muktA vidruma hEma nIla dhavalachhAyaiH mukhaistrlkShaNaiH.

• युक्तामिन्दुकला-निबद्धमुकुटां तत्वार्थवर्णात्मिकाम्॥
yuktAmindukalA nibaddha makutAm tatvArtha varNAtmikam.

• गायत्रीं वरदाभयाङ्कुश कशां शुभ्रं कपालं गदाम्।
gAyatrIm vardAbhayANkusha kashAm shubhram kapAlam gadAm.

• शंखं चक्रमथारविन्दयुगलं हस्तैर्वहन्ती भजै॥
shankham chakramathArvinda yugalam hastairvahantIm bhajE.

This shloka describes the form of वेदमाता गायत्री.

• It says, "She has five faces which shine with the colours of a Pearl 'मुक्ता', Coral 'विद्रुम', Gold 'हेम्', Sapphire 'नील्', & a Diamond 'धवलम्'.

• These five faces are symbolic of the five primordial elements called पञ्चमहाभूत:' which makes up the entire existence.

• These are the elements of SPACE, FIRE, WIND, EARTH & WATER.

• All these five faces shine with three eyes 'त्रिक्षणै:'.

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