Trend Ratio suggests major long positions has been built into Nifty and BNF over the weekend. If tomorrow we trade above the upper levels, stay bullish. Break of the Balance levels will mean these longs are trapped and can lead to fast downsides

Will not be in markets tomorrow due to some personal work, hence posted this today.

Nifty short covering on Friday given the strong move in Nifty fut is obvious. But what's interesting is the huge short covering on BNF with only 0.5% upmove in price. Morning should be bullish, then watch out how the OI behaves

Lastly, all the calculations for Upper/Lower/Balance/Trend Ratio are my own development and I won't share the formula or process. So request stop asking me about those. Thanks.

Working on two quantitative logic to analyze intraday trend and volatility. Nifty fut and BN fut charts attached.
Intraday Trend :: Blue = Uptrend , Red = Downtrend , Yellow = No Trend

Intraday Volatility :: Red = Volatile , Yellow = Normal , Gray =Quiet

A few observations after 1.5 months of launching the "Decoding Volume & OI" course. I will be speaking bluntly as usual. General observations, so kindly do not take it personally

Almost zero questions or discussions about historical high OIs, depressed OIs, volume blowoffs or the volume oscillator
Majority looking at the VolXplosion list and expecting magical trades

Ma and @gautam_icma have spent 10+ years with these concepts. So unless one understands, assimilates and watches the concepts on the charts on a regular basis, it would be IMPOSSIBLE for anyone to predict direction or quantum of move

As a result, one will get disheartened after a few months and move on to something new, looking for the proverbial next "holy grail"

THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL IN THE MARKETS

Trading is not simple as 2+2 =4.

We have taught the concepts to the best of our abilities, we did not hold anything back. Now it's upon the user how much he practices the concepts and improves

Things are getting increasingly interesting. Now NIFTY fut in VolXplosion. As usual, I have marked the last few times this signal came, you can check how Nifty behaved after that

Let me show something else on Nifty fut. This is the " extreme top bottom" marker. A play on MFI, code is open for Quantifying Breakout students. This is suggesting a probable top in place . The pic shows signals over last one year. Right in green tick, wrong in red cross

In short, Nifty is extremely overheated. Does not mean it cannot go up, but one should be very very cautious here. Still no divergences on charts from momentum oscillators

I will risk making a forecast here. Trend is still strongly up, so keep dancing till the music is playing.. but stay close to the door. If Nifty fut closes below 15660, that would be the time to go short with the ATH as stoploss

Sharing one of my contra views. Adani Ent fut has had massive rise in cumulative OI and there has been a price brkout outside the range today. This means bears are trapped. Longs, whoever they are , are so strong that Adani has not sold off in this market mayhem (1/n)

If Nifty today sells off at SGX , bears will get more confidence to short tomorrow morning or will wait, they will not sqoff. I am expecting Adani to propel upto 160 very fast (2/n)

I will be using my day-trading system and my option strategies ( already in butterfly at 160) to trade this view. This stock is massively volatile with large bid-ask spreads and moves in jerks. Trading Adani requires skill, not for the faint hearted or slow traders (3/n)

I will be trading a major part thru options, continuously adjusting my positions as new data comes in, will be using my systems. Will use V_scalper to scalp futures. How you trade this is your issue, I WILL NOT provide any followup(4/n)

Forced to issue the last disclaimer because I seriously get affected by DMs from traders who cannot handle options positions or futures. Asking me about this in market hours will lead to immediate block . Best of luck (n/n)

The BNF OI puzzle, what I think happened. This is post mortem analysis 😀

COi was going up like crazy since early March, positions were being created in far month ( go thru my previous tweets)

OI = net shorts = net longs. So informed traders were taking a huge position expecting a parabolic move ( we did not know whether up or down). As of now, my guess is that the whole position was a long position. Someone had the info of the rate cut

You can see that the positions were cut hugely on 1st April. What happened on 1st April ?

This happened 👇👇

If the rollback did not happen ( due to whatever reason), BNF would have gapped up by 1000-1500 points and the shorts would have been killed, and longs would have been laughing all the way to the bank. See the cut on 1st April

But since the rollback did happen, what we now had were trapped longs. that's why we are seeing any upmove getting sold as longs get rid of their positions. COI now is down to normal levels as you can see

Received quite a few messages from traders who lost big in yesterday's BankNifty expiry . This includes both buyers and sellers .

The common refrain is " It's operators / big players who screwed the retail , BankNifty should not move like this , SEBI should investigate "

Are you fucking kidding me ?

The volatility yesterday was minimal , max 1% upmove dowmove . If you or your strategy cannot handle this , you should not be in this game

Let me give an example :
In order to play cricket , you go thru net practice by practising batting against slow medium pace bowlers . You do this for a few days

Then you arrive for a match on a fast bouncy pitch with some tearaway quicks in the opposition. Your lack of technique and experience is brutally exposed , obviously .

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏