TRIANGLE MASTERCLASS - a thread.

what's the simplest, most effective method of trading a market that trends as hard as cryptocurrencies?

trendlines.

one trendline on its own is strong, but when you put two together you quickly realize just how powerful this simple tool can be.

i've been using triangles for as long as i can remember.

it seems dumb, and almost counter-intuitive to approach such a complex game like trading with such a simple approach like shapes...but maybe when markets start acting stupid its okay to dumb down our approach.

look, not all triangles are the same.

anybody can draw some lines on a chart any way they'd like. sometimes, we let our bias affect our charts rather than the other way around.

i personally have done this more times than i can count.

you see...triangles (and analysis as a whole) is not necessarily intended to make trading easier as much as it is to make trading simple.

you want a fluid bias that can change easily, rather than one relying on 10 steps of conflicting confirmation before entering a new trade

trendlines enable us to maintain a fluid bias.

i mean, how much simpler can it be than "above this line bullish, below this line bearish" ? 😂

one trendline on its own can be enough to make a good trade, but when you put two together it can turn a good trade into a great one.

Go to 1-4 hour chart.

Use the following EMAs.
13,21,50,180.

Look for a period of consolidation and
13>21>50>180.

Wait for a pull back to 13EMA.
If bounce occurs with volume, Enter.

Exit on bearish cross with 21>13.

0/ Predictions for 2021:
(This is not investment advice, or any other type of advice. DYOR)

1/ #ETH hits new ATH(s).

2/ #Bitcoin breaks $55K; but BTC YE2021 close is < $30K.
wins!

3/ > 3 billion-dollar crypto IPOs successfully occur (eg CoinBase, BlockFi, et al).

4/ @SBF_Alameda’s ‘off-chain BTC folding’ strategy goes unnoticed; whole crypto ecosystem wins!

The most effective meme I’ve found for Ethereum is “Digital Economy”

From there it’s easy to layout how Ethereum is the foundation for a variety of digital institutions (protocols) built upon the same principles of decentralization as Bitcoin.

1/

With “Bitcoin : Digital Gold :: Ethereum : Digital Economy” as the framing its then much easier to describe what a bet on ETH is.

I first explain DeFi (the new Wall Street), NFTs, Web3, and all the other mind blowing projects built on Ethereum...

...then illuminate how ETH is at the center of all it.

If BTC is like gold - an asset that people store value in but don’t use as money.

Then ETH is like money - the most liquid asset in Ethereum’s on-chain economy that is demanded for a wide range of economic uses.

If I get pressed on the semantics of “money” I explain how ETH is used as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account...

...but also eventually as the ultimate source of security for the Ethereum blockchain, stretching the idea of what money is.

A lot these ideas are what we attempted to express and put numbers behind in our latest ETH 2.0

Options used to be close to irrelevant for bitcoin's price.

Until now.

At current price levels, hedging large option notionals has a major impact on price.

Here's a quick thread on options 👇

Let's start with the meaning of delta.

Delta is the rate of change of an option's price relative to a change in the price of its underlying.

For example, the price of a 50 delta option will move 50% as much as the underlying.

For practical purposes, think of it as how much of the underlying you have:

- if long 50 delta call on 1 BTC => long 0.5 BTC
- if long 50 delta put on 1 BTC => short 0.5 BTC
- if short 50 delta call on 1 BTC => short 0.5 BTC
- if short 50 delta put on 1 BTC => long 0.5 BTC

An option where the option's strike (i.e. exercise price) is equal to current spot price is known as an at-the-money option (ATM). ATM options have a delta of 50, while deep in the money options have a delta of close to 100.

Can also think of delta as probability. A 50 delta option has a 50% chance of expiring in the money.

For a call, the higher price goes => the more in the money the call => the higher the delta.

Once delta gets close to 100, odds are ~100% the option will expire in the money.

We're in the phase of the market where there's a lot of retail inbounds but not enough education about the Ethereum ecosystem and DeFi.

So, let's break down the basics of some of the top protocols.

First on deck: Aave (@AaveAave), an Ethereum-based money market protocol.

A 🧵

TL;DR: Aave is a protocol through which any user anywhere in the world can take decentralized loans by collateralizing their assets.

Aave also allows those will idle assets to earn a relatively safe return on capital from lenders, whose rates are determined by a curve.

1/ For years, most crypto assets had no indirect or direct utility.

Users would hold BTC, ETH, and other assets (including many ERC-20 tokens) with no expectation of a native yield or dividends.

ETH, for instance, was long just an asset for transaction fees, as was Bitcoin.

2/ If users wanted to borrow against their assets, they were relegated to centralized platforms—which were few and far between years ago.

3/ Aave, formerly ETHLend, is a protocol allowing users the ability to lend and borrow on-chain, without KYC and untransparent fees.

Users can deposit a variety of assets as collateral, then use that collateral as ammo to borrow other assets to be used in DeFi or beyond.

1 - Over the years I've learnt a lot of new things that I wish I knew when I first started so I want to make this thread for all the new traders out there who wants to turn their trading into a profitable career 🔥

Will be adding to this thread over time.

17 - Because trading is a game of numbers and probabilities, whenever you see a setup that fits your trading rules and aligns with your edge, you NEED to take the opportunity!

Don't pick and choose, just religiously follow your plan and rules!

How to Trade without Fear, Stress or Anxiety. 💯

Trading should bring wealth, happiness and peace.
Not stress and sleepless nights.

Here is how to trade without dying faster.

Please share to de-stress the world.

A Thread.

The reasons for feeling anxious and Stressed.

1. Too high Position Size.
2. No Exit Plan.
3. Almost no Entry strategy.

We will learn about them below and try to find a solution.

1. POSITION SIZE.
Position size should be equal to what you're willing to lose and not cry over.

Eg. If your position size is 10K, you should be able to lose 10K without it making you depressed.

It doesn't mean you throw away 10K as a random experiment.

If you're stressed? Reduce your Position size, Now!

But If I trade with such a small position size, it won't be much Profitable?

-Profits and wealth are built slowly, trade with small amounts, built your system, profits will accumulate.

Small Position size. Low Stress. Better life.

Remember, you don't need a lot to become big.

1% gain per day compounds to 3700% Return per year.

- If Stressed or anxious, reduce your position size.

Switch to smaller position which doesn't make you feel sleepless.

The Sovereign Individual (1999) is a guide for navigating the current transition from Industrial to Information Age.

Remarkably, it predicted the rise of 'digital gold'.

“If our deductions are correct, you stand at the threshold of the most sweeping revolution in history.”

A🧵

1/ "Widespread adoption of public-key/private-key encryption technologies will soon allow many economic activities to be completed anywhere you please."

"Many transactions in the Information Age will not need to be domiciled in any territorial sovereignty at all."

2/ From Monopoly to Competition

"This new economic dynamic directly contradicts the desire of government left over from the industrial era to impose monopoly pricing for its protection services."

3/ The Death of Seignorage

"In the past, megapolitical transitions have been associated with changes in the character of money."

"As cybercommerce begins, it will lead inevitably to cybermoney."

"..this new cybermoney will be denationalized."

4/ "Any individual or firm with access to cyberspace will be able to easily shift out of any currency that appears in danger of depreciation."

If you've been following DeFi or Ethereum over the past few months, you've likely heard the term "flash loan" mentioned again and again.

This new DeFi primitive has been at the core of a number of economic exploits and arbitrages.

A thread on the basics of flash loans - 👇

Most DeFi loans take place across days, weeks, or even months.

You can deposit Ethereum into Aave, then withdraw stablecoins for yield farming in Yearn, for instance.

On-chain loans have garnered much traction, with total debt outstanding moving toward $2.5 billion.

While popular, DeFi loans are not capital efficient: to account for custodial risk and volatility risk, you need to put up 130-150% of the value of your loan in collateral.

If your collateral slips below the threshold, you're liquidated, resulting in a fee anywhere from 5-13%.

Flash loans are much different than longer-term DeFi loans.

Flash loans are non-custodial, take place over the course of one block, and require no collateralization.

That's to say, the coins you borrow never appear in your wallet.

When taking a flash loan, you can direct the coins to any protocol and function, as long as you pay back the loan + interest fee within the same transaction.

So what the hell? What are flash loans used for?

More often than not, arbitrage.

I cannot believe this content is free.

My notes from @Arthur_0x and @zhusu's podcast. Great catch up on everything going on in DeFi.

PS - This is extremely niche so please feel free to skip if you're not interested in

TLDR:

1. Build for UI/UX; not solely for technology/economics. They’re more important than you’d expect. See Balancer.

2. Involve community. They’ll do more than you’d expect. See Sushi.

3. Creative governance solutions & long term orientation will win. See SNX

Part 1: Decentralized Exchanges

$UNI (Uniswap)

$SUSHI (Sushiswap)

$ZRX (0x)

1/ We often misunderstand new technologies because they don’t neatly fit into to our world…yet

They enable us to do things we previously couldn't.
They change our behaviour.

#Bitcoin is one such example.

And looking at how it’s currently used gives us a peek into our future.

2/ INFLATION HEDGE:

"Bitcoin’s ultra-orthodox monetary policy of targeting a fixed money supply, is the ideal hedge for fiat money printing."
- @pierre_rochard

3/ MONETIZATION OF STRANDED ENERGY:

“If your local energy cost is effectively zero but you cannot sell your energy anywhere, the existence of a global buyer for energy is a godsend.”
- @nic__carter

4/ UNCORRELATED ALPHA:

"One reason the interest in #bitcoin from Wall St as well as pensions and endowments is this is uncorrelated alpha, this is the holy grail of investing.”
- @Sonnenshein

5/ MICROPAYMENTS:

"Bitcoin uniquely has a native unit of account called a "sat" that currently represents 1/100 of a cent (while BTC is $10k). The brand of "sats" ...could already be the most recognizable global unit of account to represent value <1cent."
- @cuysheffield