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Thread on the recent report on the possible risk of increased death associated with the new UK variant (B117)- with a discussion of the evidence around this, and what this means.
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.
First, there is strong evidence to support increased transmissibility of B117 - current estimates of increased transmissibility range between 30-70% - from epidemiological evidence examining the differential rate of growth of B117 with respect to other variants & increase in R
There is also evidence from PHE contact studies that the risk of transmission from those carrying the B117 variant is ~50% greater than with other non-B117 variants.
Increased transmissibility, even if a variant has the same fatality rate can increase deaths substantially, because the rate of growth of cases is higher- & more cases means more deaths.
Increased fatality rates also increase deaths- but do so
How dangerous are the B.1.1.7 and 501Y.V2 hyper-transmissible strains?
— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 11, 2021
by @AdamJKucharski @CFR_orghttps://t.co/aycWMN3b5h
h/t @Karl_Lauterbach pic.twitter.com/JlaFzzP06t
So how was risk of death with the variant studied?
We don't routinely sequence all samples for the virus. We've found that the variant has a particular deletion which means that some PCR tests on samples with the variant give a different read-out when the variant is present.
THREAD: Here’s a round-up of corporations pulling out of donations/events because of last week and what that means.
While these companies are only temporarily halting contributions & still giving to Super PACs etc., it is very significant to see them take public action NOW.
More than anyone, corporations track public sentiment. Most also don’t like being tangled in politics.
Taking clear action against Republicans in the Senate who would not certify the election and very clear distancing themselves from President Trump shows they believe this is where America’s head is at TODAY (the shift since Election Day).
PGA official announcement terminating the agreement to play 2022 PGA at Trump Bedminster
Goldman Sachs: Pausing all PAC donations to Republicans and Democrats. Still formulating plans for giving to elected officials who fought to overturn 2020
While these companies are only temporarily halting contributions & still giving to Super PACs etc., it is very significant to see them take public action NOW.
More than anyone, corporations track public sentiment. Most also don’t like being tangled in politics.
Taking clear action against Republicans in the Senate who would not certify the election and very clear distancing themselves from President Trump shows they believe this is where America’s head is at TODAY (the shift since Election Day).
PGA official announcement terminating the agreement to play 2022 PGA at Trump Bedminster
"The PGA of America Board of Directors voted tonight to exercise the right to terminate the agreement to play the 2022 PGA Championship at Trump Bedminster." \u2014 Jim Richerson, PGA of America President
— PGA of America (@PGA) January 11, 2021
Goldman Sachs: Pausing all PAC donations to Republicans and Democrats. Still formulating plans for giving to elected officials who fought to overturn 2020