BC SOCIETY
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1/14 How do e-cigarettes (ECs) affect cigarette smoking among youth? My new paper with @FloeFoxon simulates each scenario and finds out which one best matches actual trends... https://t.co/dBB7kcnTls @jgitchell @mikepesko @SwitchFinder @jkelovuori @TobPolicy @Clive_Bates

 2/14 First, let's talk about why this question is so difficult to answer: COUNTERFACTUALS. We can't know the alternate-reality answers, like which smokers would have never started in a world without ECs, and which nonsmokers would now be smoking without ECs as an option.
3/14 So, the best we can do is use fancy/sophisticated methodologies to estimate what would have happened to youth smoking rates in the absence of ECs. In our case, simulation modeling
4/14 First, we look at the declining smoking trends *that were already happening* before ECs came (~2010), and project them into the present. This is our BASE-CASE SCENARIO about what smoking trends would be if ECs were never invented. Actual trends were LOWER than this base-case
5/14 Side note about terminology: We use the term “catalyst” instead of “gateway,” because “catalyst” is more precise about the claim we are modeling (that ECs are used first, and then causally lead to smoking). Whereas "gateway" can include other mechanisms like renormalization.
6/14 Starting from the base-case scenario, we "switch on" a catalyst effect, where EC users also start smoking. We assume a worst-case scenario, where ALL dual users have gotten there because of a catalyst effect -- this FURTHER overpredicts actual trends.
7/14 So... gateway doesn't fit reality (at the population level)
8/14 Then, starting again from the base-case scenario, we "switch on" a diversion effect, where EC users are prevented from ever becoming smokers. This is closer to the actual trends, but still overpredicts -- meaning a stronger diversion effect is needed to explain reality!
9/14 So, we optimized the simulation model to find *how large a diversion effect would have to be*, to match real-world trends: exponential decay constant of 55.4% of EC users/year are prevented from ever smoking!
10/14 What’s an exponential decay constant? It’s related to the concept of half-life. # of EC users is assumed to decay exponentially if left alone – a standard modeling assumption. 55.4% describes how fast this decline occurs – higher means more EC users prevented from smoking.
11/14 Finally, we "switched on" both effects -- figuring that ECs may act as a catalyst for some, and a diversion for others. Even in the presence of an opposing catalyst effect, *a net diversion effect is necessary* to explain actual trends (of 65.4% EC users/year).
12/14 All together, real data are MUCH more consistent with a diversion effect (and a rather strong one at that!), than a null effect or catalyst/gateway effect.
13/14 Caveats: This doesn’t conclusively prove a diversion effect, but it does show that population-level trends are much better explained by a *net* diversion effect, and are wildly inconsistent with a net catalyst effect. https://t.co/pTYbsCl1hd
14/14 Disclosures: I now work for PinneyAssociates, which consults for JUUL Labs on tobacco harm reduction. However, this study was completed and submitted BEFORE these activities began, in a purely academic position. In fact, my line of research is why I joined Pinney!

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s. e. smith
s. e. smith
@sesmith
Oh are we talking about Sheryl Sandberg again? Well, your reminder that disabled feminists, LGBQT feminists, and feminists of color criticised her ‘lean in’ deal from day one. Don’t let anyone retcon that out of existence.

Like, a pretty narrow slice of feminists actually endorse and support corporate feminism, they’re just white, nondisabled, straight, cis, and noisy so their voices have a bigger reach.

So if your impression is that ‘feminism’ gave her a ‘free pass’ maybe you should question your overall impression of feminism rather than continuing to centre a handful of people as ‘thought leaders’ or whatever.

Critics within feminism have been doing this work for a long time and have been getting shat on it for about as long and I'm tired of seeing them erased. But what do I know — I am, after all, not a feminist.

But I WILL say, from my not-a-feminist perspective, that people who aren’t feminists who are criticising feminism should maybe understand the movement more deeply beyond a handful of high profile celebrity feminists.
TECH , SOCIETY
(((TJ Johnston)))
(((TJ Johnston)))
@TJJohnston415
#2020yearinreview
My coverage and commentary of San Francisco homelessness in the past year.

To make it more interesting, I'm interspersing quotes throughout this thread ⬇️

‘The letters or cards that I had… they could never be replaced. It just meant more to me than a zillion dollars.’ -- Derrick, who lost his tent, ID and letters from his mother to sweeps by

'We’re essentially under arrest. On an equally interesting note, I haven’t had any medical examination since my arrival — a bit strange considering what I’m here for.' -- Ken, shelter client who was tested positive for

'The shelter in place has given us permission to be out here, otherwise it was just cat and mouse' -- Toro, whose tent camp in Castro District was temporarily reprieved from police

'It’s scary coming here, especially for people using on the street and with mental health issues, there’s a lot of paranoia. I didn’t know if I was being taken to a black site.' -- Joshua Owens, on his initial trepidation about entering a SIP hotel
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\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 SheNerd the Deplorable \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
🇺🇸 SheNerd the Deplora...
@shnerdly
For those traveling to DC on Jan. 6th, I'm a native to the area and I would like to share with you what I will be doing this time and what I have done for the last two rallies...1/
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Indian Rwanda Radio
Indian Rwanda Radio
@IND_RwandaRadio
Nearly a year ago, the Tablighi Jamaat controversy took over India’s media. Around 3,500 foreign nationals had visited India to attend the Tablighi Jamaat event at the Nizamuddin Markaz Mosque in Delhi.

With the lockdown being announced on March 24, 2020, several attendees had moved to different parts of the country to attend smaller gatherings in local mosques.

Around 960 foreign nationals were held at quarantine and in states like UP, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Karnataka, etc. were sent straight to prison.

There was an outpour of Anti-Muslim bigotry in much of Indian news media with this event where it ramped up its demonisation of the community.

For weeks, the attendees of the Tablighi Jamaat event were named the “super-spreaders” of COVID and in several cases, Maulana Mohammad Saad was called a terrorist and “the maulana of death”.
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Paul P.H. Wilson\u269b
Paul P.H. Wilson⚛
@gonuke
It is simply not correct to point fingers at wind & solar energy as we try to understand the situation in TX. The system (almost) had a plan for weather (almost) like this. 1/x


It relied on very little wind energy - that was the plan. It relied on a lot of natural gas - that was the plan. It relied on all of its nuclear energy - that was the plan. 2/x

There was enough natural gas, coal and nuclear capacity installed to survive this event - it was NOT "forced out" by the wind energy expansion. It was there. 3/x

Wind, natural gas, coal and nuclear plants all failed to deliver on their expectations for long periods of time. The biggest gap was in natural gas! The generators were there, but they were not able to deliver. 4/x

It may be fair to ask why there is so much wind energy in ERCOT if we do NOT expect it to deliver during weather events like this, but that is an entirely different question - and one with a lot of great answers!! 5/x
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Warrior Axom
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I am a student of DHSK college, Dibrugarh. I belong to 1 st Sem , History Department. And my generic subject is Political Science. Our history professor Mr Abhijit Baruah on our first day said
1) You Hindus don't have any history
2) If you want to study real history contd...

then study Islamic& European history.
3) He is a hardcore communist ( urban naxal I must say )

4) He says you hindu people don't have any history coz you people were busy writing about your imaginary Gods.

5 ) He says us to read history books of Romilla Thapar ( hindu hater)

He is brainwashing students since 80s. Another professor Mr Biraj Dutta says "we need revolution. Ami Delhi r sorkar uforai pelabo lgibo " Another Comrade professor Mr Sun Gogoi of Pol Sc. Dept says Urban Naxal is a derogatory term used by fascist Hindutva goons to defame (3)

Students of JNU and overall all the student community. He says Lala Lajpat Rai & all the nationalist politicians of that time were casteist including former President of India Mr Rajendra Prasad.

Now the historic DHSK college & all the college's of Assam may doing this from (4)

a long time. Now what should I do ? Should I stand against them. Should I oppose them ? My inner Hindu does not allow me to tolerate anymore.
Should I complain ? But to whom ? Anyone can be an Urban Naxal . Whom to believe? Should I think about my career & keep quite (5)
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Max Fagin
Max Fagin
@MaxFagin
November is here, and that means a massive shift is coming. And by "massive" I am of course referring to the redefinition of the kilogram unit of mass that the world has been building up to for more than 100 years. Let me explain:


1/ I've had an unhealthy fascination with metrology (the study of measurement) ever since my 2nd year as a physics major when I took a class devoted to duplicating historic physics experiments, so please indulge me for going into heavy detail (get it?) about the kilogram.

2/ So what actually *defines* a unit of measurement? If you're American, you probably know a mile is 5280 feet and a foot is 12 inches and an inch is 2.54 centimeters etc. But where does this chain of definitions end? Is it turtles all the way down?

3/ It's actually not! For all units (even the imperial units used in America) the answers all end with the Système International (SI) unit definitions established and maintained for over 100 years by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIMP) in France.

4/ At the base of this tower are the SI base units. Just 7 SI base units define every other unit in existence. They are:

Kilogram, kg (mass)
Meter, m (distance)
Second, s (time)
Kelvin, K (temp)
Ampere, A (electric current)
Candela, cd (luminous intensity)
Mole, mol (quantity)
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Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Importance of Famous Payyannur Pavithra Mothiram or Ring

Payyanur Sri Subramanya Swami Temple 🚩
Kerala

Temple, constructed by Parasurama is known as the 'Pazhani' of Kerala.The place got its name from 'Payyante Ooru' where Payyan is another name by which Subramanya was called.


There are references about this temple in Brahmanda purana. Muni Garga mentions this temple and the place to  the Pandavas when they were in Vanavasa. Temple was destroyed two times, once due to fire and then during the attack of Tipu Sultan.


Important tradition here is wearing of Pavithram by the temple priest. Pavithram is a sort of  ring worn during performing Vedic rituals or during the "pithrubali". Usually worn while performing Tarpana or Shradham. The traditional Pavitram is usually made of Dharbha grass
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
राम-रावण युद्ध समाप्त हो चुका था। जगत को त्रास देने वाला रावण अपने कुटुम्ब सहित नष्ट हो चुका था।श्रीराम का राज्याभिषेक हुआ और अयोध्या नरेश श्री राम के नेतृत्व में चारों दिशाओं में शन्ति थी।
अंगद को विदा करते समय राम रो पड़े थे ।हनुमान को विदा करने की शक्ति तो राम में थी ही नहीं ।


माता सीता भी हनुमान को पुत्रवत मानती थी। अत: हनुमान अयोध्या में ही रह गए ।राम दिनभर दरबार में, शासन व्यवस्था में व्यस्त रहते थे। संध्या को जब शासकीय कार्यों में छूट मिलती तो गुरु और माताओं का कुशल-मंगल पूछ अपने कक्ष में जाते थे। परंतु हनुमान जी हमेशा उनके पीछे-पीछे ही रहते थे ।


उनकी उपस्थिति में ही सारा परिवार बहुत देर तक जी भर बातें करता ।फिर भरत को ध्यान आया कि भैया-भाभी को भी एकांत मिलना चाहिए ।उर्मिला को देख भी उनके मन में हूक उठती थी कि इस पतिव्रता को भी अपने पति का सानिध्य चाहिए ।

एक दिन भरत ने हनुमान जी से कहा,"हे पवनपुत्र! सीता भाभी को राम भैया के साथ एकांत में रहने का भी अधिकार प्राप्त है ।क्या आपको उनके माथे पर सिन्दूर नहीं दिखता?इसलिए संध्या पश्चात आप राम भैया को कृप्या अकेला छोड़ दिया करें "।
ये सुनकर हनुमान आश्चर्यचकित रह गए और सीता माता के पास गए ।


माता से हनुमान ने पूछा,"माता आप अपने माथे पर सिन्दूर क्यों लगाती हैं।" यह सुनकर सीता माता बोलीं,"स्त्री अपने माथे पर सिन्दूर लगाती है तो उसके पति की आयु में वृद्धि होती है और वह स्वस्थ रहते हैं "। फिर हनुमान जी प्रभु राम के पास गए ।
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Formula 1
Formula 1
@F1
After 17 years and more than 300 races, it could be @alo_oficial's last F1 race on Sunday 😭 He's given us a lot over the years... including some superb GIFs!

Here we have a rare example of a GIF you can actually hear. TOMA. 💪


The Spanish Samurai


Never give up. 💪 #GraciasFernando


Winning is everything. #GraciasFernando
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