If you want to win an argument, don't make these mistakes:

First things first: The best way to win an argument is to not enter one in the first place.

However, we don't always have that luxury and can sometimes find ourselves needing to defend a point of view.

If this happens, here are 15 logical fallacies to avoid:

Anecdotal (vs. Empirical Evidence)

Using a personal experience or an isolated example to try and prove a point instead of empirical or more compelling evidence.

Humans tend to believe and relate to stories, but don't fall into this trap.

What's true for you isn't always true.

Likely or Plausible Fallacy

Likely: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is possible means that it is likely.

Plausible: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is plausible means that it is true.

Begging The Question

Involves presenting a circular argument where the conclusion is included in the premise.

Examples:

1/ "Of course smoking causes cancer. The smoke from cigarettes is a carcinogen."

2/ "Circular reasoning is bad mostly because it's not very good."

Most people suck at decision-making.

Let's change that.

Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found 🧵

The Inside-Outside View

We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.

To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.

Ladder of Inference

Describes the thinking process we go through—often subconsciously—to get from a fact to a decision or action.

To make better decisions, we should move slowly and deliberately from the bottom of the ladder to the top of the ladder.

h/t (image) - @amrancz

Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality

The more confidence you have in the importance of a problem and your understanding of its solution, the more you should focus on quality.

However, if you need to learn more, move fast and break things.

h/t - @BrandonMChu

@BrandonMChu Devil’s Advocate Position

The antidote to confirmation bias.

It involves forcing yourself to view a decision from the opposite viewpoint or finding people who disagree with you.

It forces you to create a more compelling argument.

Don't take my word for it: