14 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

A Man Isolated, Does He Have The Power?

It's Thursday morning and we're not in a globalized war with China, far as I can tell. I was happy to give Simon, Charlie, and Danielle their time from Tuesday to Wednesday. Where to now?

3 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #RedoTheElection

When You Catch A Thief

The sleeping giant of America sleeps no more. We have awakened. We're nothing more than the same Common Sense Americans we were in 1776. We're feisty. Independent and self-sufficient. Hard working.

15 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

The Burden Of Command, Or If I Were Trump Right Now

I'll get a few more hours sleep after posting this early morning's thread. It's just after 3:30 AM, EST. The dream for America that I dreamed awakened me, and so here I am.

20 January 2021 #MAGAanalysis

The Day After

Here's the link to soon-to-be former President Trump's Farewell Speech. It's not easy watching, I can tell you that. But we boldly do what we must,

25 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis Christmas Edition

The Great Reawakening - A Renewed Dream Of America

@GenFlynn tells me the JOY of the MAGA Movement has returned. Our Xmas gift is A Renewed Dream For America. In case you didn't know, it's his birthday too, he's a Christmas baby!

29 December 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

Comments On @OptimisticCon Article:

The key supporting effort appears to be underway on Trump’s operational timeline

As we emphasized yesterday, J.E. Dyer commands us: "But do hold the line."

Bellingcat and its investigative partners have established that Russian politician, Vladimir Kara Murza, was followed by a specialist FSB team prior to his suspected poisonings in 2015 and 2017.

Members of the same FSB team, some of whom have medical and chemical weapons backgrounds, tailed Alexey Navalny before he was poisoned with a Novichok substance in August 2020.

Kara-Murza is a well-known Russian politician, film-maker and an outspoken critic of Russian president Vladimir Putin. The circumstances around his suspected poisonings have long remained a mystery.

Travel details of FSB team members show they followed Kara-Murza on a campaign trip outside Moscow that ended less than 48 hours before his first poisoning incident in May 2015.

Kara-Murza recovered in the US before returning to Russia. Yet the same team began tailing him again just five months after he came back. He was poisoned for the second time in February 2017.

/thread/ It has been almost 2 months since the end of the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war and after observing it from the start and talking about it with (or listening to) some really smart people, here are IMO important lessons (new or old) from that conflict:

1. Even in smaller conflicts, U(C)AVs are making achieving air superiority, or at least denying it to the opponent, a lot more important than it used to be.

2. Effective distribution of real-time data from U(C)AVs (and loitering munitions, which can be launched to perform recon when other assets are not available) can significantly increase the effectiveness of even relatively old artillery systems.

3. While airpower is getting incredibly deadly and can quickly inflict massive material damage, you still need units on the ground with a strong will to fight despite taking casualties (and political will to accept that in serious modern wars, significant losses are inevitable).

4. Soldiers need to be aware that on a modern battlefield there are not really any "safe areas" and TTPs (tactics techniques procedures) need to be changed to reflect this.

Could Turkish drones be the silver bullet in Nigeria's decade long war against insurgency. Turkey has in recent years become a major player when it comes to the world of drones. Weve seen what Turkish drones did in Syria.

In Libya, in what can be described as the largest drone war in the world we saw how the LNA's goal of seizing the capital Tripoli abruptly ended after Turkeys intervention with its Bayraktar drones. There is no doubt these drones will be of immense value to the Nigerian military

The relatively flat featureless terrain of the northeast means that ground units are easily spotted, with few natural barriers to hide. The Alpha jets and L-30ZA are valuable yet limited by numbers. Besides they antiquated platforms.

While manned fighter aircraft have been used for most part of the war the NAF needs to start considering the employment of unmanned aerial vehicles on a strategic level. UAVs are useful for several reasons. Not only do they provide valuable information about the enemy

..that can be spotted from standoff distances, they are able to attack targets immediately with a far higher rate of success. In the event a drone is shot down...BIG DEAL !..the pilot is safe, back at base and able to pilot the next drone that takes off.

Why should we be careful when talking about a “jobs bounce-back” in South Africa? - A THREAD.

You don’t get better labour market economists in South Africa than the @NIDS_CRAM team, but the main finding of an “employment bounce-back” seems counterintuitive. What’s going on? 1/n

NIDS-CRAM does NOT show a rebound to pre-COVID employment levels. They report 700,000 job lost between Feb and Oct 2020, this is massive = 3.85% fall (broad definition). The authors of the employment paper say this could be as high as 5.3% or 960,000 jobs.

The authors @joshbudlender @ihsaanbassier (+ Rocco) also show that Oct employment is normally higher than Feb employment, super roughly Oct is plausibly around 102% of Feb. This means it’s plausible 360,000 jobs would have been gained between Feb-Oct *anyway*.

This would mean - within the study parameters - it’s possible COVID has caused up to (an outer outer limit) of 1.32 million job losses when comparing Oct 2020 with what we would have expected it to be in normal times. This is a total disaster in the context of the SA economy.

This is roughly what we should expect from the StatsSA QLFS. This showed 2.2 million jobs lost in first half of 2020, and 543,000 regained in Q3, meaning a loss of just under 1.7 million jobs in first 9 months. We’d definitely expect some more jobs regained in Oct-Dec.

1️⃣ How the Yemeni Civil War (2014–present) is portrayed in the main stream media

2️⃣ This one is a little different, it hits close to home in many different ways, the Yemeni Civil War is a unique phenomenon in moder warfare, the majority of people don't even know what's really going on and who's fighting who.

3️⃣ The combatants :
Iranian backed Supreme Political Council (Houthis)
  International recognized Government (Hadi-led government)
  South Yemen Nationalists Southern Transitional Council

4️⃣ The (allegedly Turkish and Qatari backed) Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Yemen Province (ISIL-YP)
 The (allegedly Iranian and Qatari backed) Ansar al-Sharia and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

5️⃣The so called Supreme political council of Yemen is a Mish mash of bad guys and misfits, Iran supplies the Houthis with arms, drones and ballistic missiles, Hezbollah delivers these arms through shell corporations and Hezbollah operators man the missiles