BC WISE INVESTING
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

Depends on your style, of course, but absolutely correct.

More from Leading Nowhere

Leading Nowhere
Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere
Paying 50-100x earnings for 'blue ocean' sectors has become normalized with promise of changing trends and immense future opportunity. Stock markets look forward, if the future opportunity is great, in most cases that 100x valuation already factors a 30x valuation in 3 years.

For investors, the question of where the buck stops is difficult to answer, because the goal post keeps changing. 30x is reasonable for one business, for another 70x is acceptable. So why not everything in between too?

Not every business captures the opportunity available. There is many a slip between the cup and the lip, as my English teacher used to say. When investors have seen valuations creep from 20x to 100x in a matter of a year or two, it is easy to to keep dancing to the same music.

But like we used to play musical chairs in childhood, someone will be left standing too. And here the rules aren't that 1 person gets eliminated at a time, hundreds get crushed at the same time. In childhood, we had a 1/X chance of being caught standing when the music stopped.

The margin of safety was high till you got down to the last 3-4 people playing the game. Similarly, your margin of safety reduces dramatically when valuation becomes irrelevant. A few months of underperformance and suddenly things don't look so rosy any more.
VALUATION
Leading Nowhere
Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere
@Dinesh_Sairam @a_basumallick @ashwinidamani Questions that are only answered with time haha.

@a_basumallick @ashwinidamani Just to add - sustainable FCF is a faraway concept for most till (if) they gain scale or innovate/add value. Till then, it's generally always a struggle to manage WC and capacity addition. Wouldn't expect that to change for a while.
VALUATION , ACCOUNTING
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Leading Nowhere
Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere
Insolvency resolutions suck for creditors, but this one takes the cake.

Listed company gave loan to related party, defaulted along with other dues. Related party creditor acquired the listed entity via insolvency.

Only losers are operational creditors w/ 88% haircut.


Company name is Covidh Technologies Ltd - really old bankrupt company. Not a significant event, just an observation.

Correction: Listed company *took* a loan from related party (in first tweet)
FINANCIAL SHENANIGANS
Leading Nowhere
Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere
The anatomy of Private Equity (PE) funding in a public listed company.

A thread 👇 (1/n)

PG Electroplast Limited, a contract manufacturer of various kinds of electrical goods and appliances, recently announced an 80 crore fund-raise through preferential allotment of equity shares and compulsorily convertible debentures (CCD) to Baring PE and family funds. (2/n)


Such transactions are a great way to understand Private Equity deals in a public setting. Because of disclosure norms for listed companies, everything related to a fund infusion in a listed company is made available to the public. (3/n)

From a retail investor’s perspective, it is easy to focus only on WHO is investing. In this thread, I will try to look at such a transaction from the perspective of all stakeholders – the company, the PE investors, and the public shareholders. (4/n)

PG Electroplast sees an opportunity in the Productivity-Linked Incentives (PLI) by GoI. Under this scheme, companies making incremental investments into manufacturing facilities receive up to 6% of the incremental sales generated from such investment as an “incentive”. (5/n)
PRIVATE EQUITY
Leading Nowhere
Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere
Every annual report tells a story.

In small companies, you can read between the lines to get a feel of the management style and business economics.

I take Fredun Pharmaceuticals Ltd (FPL) to illustrate how to go about this (it's not pretty).

Let's go 👇 (1/n)

Please note that the main objective of this review is to get a preliminary understanding without doing a thesis.

It is oriented towards a "quick and dirty" review to decide if you want to dig deeper.

Review financials on a screener website before reading further. (2/n)


Now, you can already guess Fredun Pharmaceuticals is named after Fredun Medhora. His mother, Dr Daulat Medhora and his father, Nariman Medhora, are the original promoters of the company. Interestingly, Nariman Medhora has stepped down from active involvement in June 2021. (3/n)


Then we have Dr Daulat Medhora, who seems to have the qualifications and a decent background in the pharma industry. However, she is 76 years old and unlikely to be actively involved for much longer. (4/n)


That leaves Fredun Medhora, who does not have a technical or scientific background and his primary qualification is an MBA.

The biography provided in the AR describes the CV of an MBA student, nothing on the contribution or role in the company. (5/n)
FREDUN

More from Wise investing

Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
Out of 17 stocks that I own, I am allowed to go wrong in 2-3 of them. Not going wrong shows that you are not taking enough risks or operating on the edge. Learning from mistakes is the number 1 way to improve as an investor. An excerpt from the annual letter :)
WISE INVESTING
Lyall Taylor
Lyall Taylor
@LT3000Lyall
@Namajapa In my experience value stocks are the ones with undervalued optionality - the possibility things get unexpectedly better. Expensive story stocks by contrast anticipate and price in all manner of good future outcomes long before they are actually delivered/deliverable.
WISE INVESTING , VALUATION
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Investment Wisdom
Investment Wisdom
@InvestingCanons
“You do things when the opportunities come along. I’ve had periods in my life when I’ve had a bundle of ideas come along, and I’ve had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I’ll do something. If not, I won’t do a damn thing.”

— Warren Buffett
WISE INVESTING
D.Muthukrishnan
D.Muthukrishnan
@dmuthuk
Sustainable wealth is not made by chasing cryptos or overhyped IPOs.
WISE INVESTING
Mungerisms \u2022 Charlie Munger Bot
Mungerisms • Charlie M...
@CharlieBot
But people get long runs when they're right on the edge of the wave,

whether it's Microsoft or Intel or all kinds of people,

including National Cash Register in the early days.

The cash register was one of the great contributions to civilization.
WISE INVESTING

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Panic! in the Discord
Panic! in the Discord
@discord__panic
Neo-nazi group #PatriotFront held a photo op in #Chicago last weekend & is currently marching around #DC so it's as good time as any to compile a list of their identified members for folks to watch for

Who are these chuds?

Patriot Front broke away from white nationalist org Vanguard America following #unitetheright in #charlottesville after James Alex Fields was seen with a VA shield before driving his car into a crowd, murdering Heather Heyer & injuring dozens of others

Syed Robbie Javid a.k.a. Sayed Robbie Javid or Robbie Javid of Alexandria,


Antoine Bernard Renard (a.k.a. “Charlemagne MD” on Discord) from Rockville, MD.

https://t.co/ykEjdZFDi6


Brandon Troy Higgs, 25, from Reisterstown,
EXTREMISM
Michael King \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8
Michael King 🇺🇸...
@8MichaelKing
Ever notice how the top niches are centered around health, wealth, and relationships?

There's a deep-rooted psychological (and biological) reason why.

And today, I'm gonna to explain all of it so you can start profiting off of this knowledge 💰💰

*Now, this thread is going to be long and in depth. Make sure to favorite the top tweet now so you can come back to it later.

So. Down to the very core of every living being (humans, dolphins, bacteria, aliens), there are only two drivers:
1. To survive
2. To reproduce

Right off the bat, we know that sex is a primary driver to human behavior.

This would also mean that each gender has its own insecurities regarding sex.

Men have a subconscious fear that their woman will leave them for someone more successful

Women have a fear that their man will leave them for someone younger & better-looking

We can conclude that men are attracted to looks, and women are attracted to status.

This is human nature down to its very core.

Crazy, blue-haired feminists will try to argue and say otherwise.

But, 50 years of feminism DOES NOT OVERRIDE millions of years of evolutionary biology.

Here's a quick visualization exercise so you can see how true all this is...
STARTUPS
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James Clear
James Clear
@JamesClear
My top 10 tweets of the year

A thread 👇

https://t.co/xj4js6shhy


https://t.co/b81zoW6u1d


https://t.co/1147it02zs


https://t.co/A7XCU5fC2m
BUSINESS , ALL
\uff2c\uff41\uff44\uff59 \uff22\uff4c\uff41\uff5a\uff45\uff53
Ｌａｄｙ Ｂｌａｚｅｓ...
@Lady_Blazes
Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
GOVERNMENT
Mike DiCenzo
Mike DiCenzo
@mikedicenzo
"How the Avengers would respond to the Capitol riot" (a thread)

CAPTAIN AMERICA - tells Falcon, "I fought Nazis once before. They're extremely dangerous." They then see the guy scaling the Capitol wall fall into the shrubs. Falcon: "You sure these are the same Nazis?"

IRON MAN - lands by the guy carrying the podium. Says, "Mind if I borrow this?" then tosses it to Hulk, who swings it like a bat at the mob. Guy: "Hey, that's MY podium!" Iron Man: "Actually it's the Speaker's. And technically, it's a lectern." Then punches him through a wall.

BLACK WIDOW - enters hotel room where Jack Dorsey is tied up. Rips duct tape off his mouth. Jack: "I'll do anything you want!" BW: "Disable POTUS's Twitter. NOW!" Jack fumbles with his phone. "Done. Anything else?" BW: "Yeah. Trim your beard for God's sake." *tosses him clippers*

HULK - grabs a selfie stick from one of the guys and beats him over the head with it. Deeming it too small, he grabs another guy's Confederate flag and takes out a whole swath of rioters. He then tosses the flag to Cap, who uses it as a javelin to impale a fleeing Ted Cruz.

HAWKEYE - hears Iron Man in his earpiece say, "Looks like Orange Julius is tweeting from another account." Hawkeye: "On it." He locks in on Trump through the White House window and fires an arrow, knocking the phone out of Trump's hands. Hawkeye: "Damn that felt good."
GOVERNMENT