For this next installment, we've got a lot of county data. These are big images and if you can't see them try to right-click them, open in a new tab. If you still can't see them you can zoom in and out of that image with +/- key and holding control.
Alternatively, you can just trust me and read these tweets. 🙃 (I make a point of going over the important stuff.) Anyway, off to the races! We'll start with the normal chart, and then we're going into the county extras. (It's big, and many people don't care.)
So, out the gate we've got Biden slightly ahead on his mean votes
@ 8235 per time interval to Trump's 6698. The election as recorded was:
(data downloaded just now)
Trump: 1,962,631
Biden: 2,413,144
Third: 84,750
Total: 4,460,525
Trump is losing by 450,513.0 votes.
While that vote total seems high for a loss, we'll get to that in a minute. Don't panic.
On our first chart we've got problems! The count starts
@ 7pm est, and it looks fairly decent for Trump out the gate. We have a unicorn pro-Trump 'shovel' here. (Usually used to hide vote
dumps between intervals. Our first Biden cheat triangle (>80% of vote incoming) starts at 8:30ish and then stop counting. Not once, four times. This counting break is broke up by another cheat triangle for Biden that combined land him an additional +139k votes.
@ 9:32p. 20 mins
later they just decide 'the hell with it' and dump ~ 370k votes
@ 9:56pm. They give around 66% (243k) to Biden, and give Trump the remainder. That wasn't enough so they decided Biden needed another 2 cheat triangles at 10:29p & 10:41pm. (60k more votes) Trump would be winning
this whole screen without the obvious vote dumps. Generally, what is a 'cheat triangle' in my parlance is any vote interval where one of the candidates is getting a ridiculously high share of the vote. Our big one on this screen doesn't fit the definition, but it's suspect in
relation to all of the others where we have barely 10-15% margins of lead. The stop-counts add more credibility to the number being fixed as well, as it's obvious this happens before the massive dumping begins. It used to be a practice in the past (often used in Dem regions)
to hold votes past the time of concession of the other candidate. The idea is you don't put them in until after the other candidate bows out so they don't matter. (But, you still eventually count them.) Long history of this in Chicago, in case you're wondering. Anyway, moving on.
So, we get to 10:54pm EST and they decide, you haven't seen enough crazy. Look at this chart, it's nearly unintelligible but I've done my best. Small game cheating and shoveling between the mega-peaks, and man are they mega. They drop about 1.15million votes here and 82.5%
go straight to Biden. But, look at the whack dive. Personally, I feel there is nothing natural about the movement in this chart. Those 'dips' that are off page are nearly the size of the peaks between them. They take votes away from Trump AND Biden, but redistribute them mostly
to Biden at that ratio. We could look at these big numbers on the peaks not in question, try to fuzzy math the cancellations (I did both), or just presume this whole block of data is manipulated and false. I leave that as an exercise to the reader. They're still busy (as usual)
fidgeting with the numbers over a week after the election. (as usual) You can see them blip further on.
Things finally calm down at the start of our chart (about a week after the election). There is some moving of small counts of votes around. There is an interesting pattern in
middle of the chart that I've never seen before. Due to it's nature, I really have nothing to say about it other than it's weird! 🙃
Verdict: Based on the evidence of cheat triangle dumps, stop counts, and the whole of the secondary chart our verdict for cheating will be: GUILTY! 🔨 Normal voting patterns do not follow these progressions at all. It's as plain as day...
Extra #1: Some county detail. Let's do it!
This is a lot of data, but basically this is a comparison to the increase in voter turn out in 2016 and 2020. We have a median line and a standard deviation below and above that line which should help us find the outliers.
(These lines should encapsulate 68%.5 of what is normal.) You'll probably need to put this on another tab to study it, but I'll give you my hot takes. The first thing that we should note is that our media turnout increase in 2016 (101.8%) increased to 111.2% in which is
91.5% higher than normal(1.8%). Unusual? Yes, insane. Motivated voters don't explain this as more people hate Hillary (on both sides) than anyone hates Trump. But, now we're going to have a look at the tops....
Culpepper, Fredrick, Gouchland, Loudoun, Orange, Spotsylvania, and Stafford at all posting
@ ~120% of turnout. With the exception of Gouchland & Orange Co.'s most of these were leading up in 2016 as well.
While these are large increases. (Especially Loudon.) We will have to take Fairfax in to consideration on it's own. In Fairfax and Fairfax City we have 109% and 112% respectively, which for these areas (a co. of millions) is huge. Fairfax had 104.1% in 2016, City
@ 103.4%
which represents a huge increase in turnout. See these number don't look so big until you figure out that Fairfax's is huge. These little increases are larger than anything else on the chart.
For completeness, I've included two charts for those interested that just show the %
of votes, and the actual votes counts per county actually cast. They're mostly here for completeness.
Enough info should be here for the curious. You can find any county in VA's increase + their vote percent and their 'share' of the totals. With 100+ counties, it's just impossible to go every single one in detail. But, I can do the hard work for you. 😀
