1/ @mjmauboussin's book Expectations Investing is a masterclass in valuation & strategy
His framework uses price-implied expectations to assess companies, an elegant way to invert valuation
https://t.co/kESplMN3nW
To practice these concepts, I wrote a case study on Chipotle⤵️
2/ Chipotle is the leading fast casual restaurant chain across the US, with almost 3,000 owned & operated locations
They benefit from strong unit economics and a trusted brand
We'll discuss consensus estimates, competitive landscape, and expected
3/ We must first identify the price-implied expectations based on key value drivers
After finding the consensus estimates, investors can seek opportunities in the expectations - looking for a divergence from the market's assumptions
Let's start with Chipotle's sales growth
4/ Chipotle has grown revenues from $3.9B to $7.55B over the past 5 years, at a 5 year CAGR of 14.1%
Analysts estimate a 13.7% consensus growth rate based on 5-7% same store sales growth, 8% additional store openings per year, and steady digital sales contribution
5/ Next is operating profit margin, which measures profitability from core operations
Chipotle has slowly been growing its margin, now at 10.67%
Analysts expect high margins of 15.75%, with incremental profits from digital orders and unit-level margin growth contributing
