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This is mostly right but strikes me as it needing said that I don't think the left or the intelligentsia have the slightest idea how low institutional trust in anything coming from a left mouthpiece is now. Except in-network, the best heuristic is "the opposite of what they said"


If you look at the situation from a predictive models perspective instead of the more rigorous and appropriate (under normal circumstances) "prove your case or gtfo" perspective, trusting the opposite of whatever the left side says has an AMAZING track record, as we know it.

Literally, the best heuristic most people have right now, in terms of how often it gets things right versus *completely* wrong, is "whatever CNN, the NYT, public health officials, and the Democrats said... yeah, the opposite." That is, they're wrong WAY outside of statistics.

They're also not just wrong. They're *completely* wrong, backwards, often transparently covering something up that they don't want known or refuse to believe. This isn't just a legitimation crisis because there's a heuristic: whatever the official left narrative is, is wrong.

There are a few reasons why such a heuristic would be more predictive than not. One of those is conspiracy, and another is mass hysteria with ideological capture. We know at least one of those is happening and have rather strong evidence both are. That makes conspiracy reasonable
Iran's nuke program is more advanced than 4 years ago. Trump let Iran out of nuclear restrictions for no good reason, and damaged the Western alliance in the process.
Iran is also more powerful in the region, not less.
Utter failure, foreseen by many whose warnings were ignored.


With the Trump administration on the way out, here's a look back at what I wrote about their Iran strategy. When I say the failure of that strategy was easy to foresee, I mean I called it from the beginning (as did others).
Jan 6, before Trump took office.
https://t.co/sdrJUJoh8C


June 5, 2017: The Saudis and some Israelis want the US to go hard against Iran "in the vain hope Iran will capitulate," but capitulation won't happen so throwing away gains in pursuit of it would be a

July 20, 2017: Trump botched the Qatar crisis.
"Trump sees the situation as good guys (Saudis) vs. bad guys (Iran). But — and I can’t believe I have to write this — the Middle East is complicated."
The result: Qatar closer to Iran, Iran stronger in

Oct 5, 2017: The "Madman Theory" won't work on Iran
https://t.co/StayQYRUU6
Oct 8, '17: Scrapping the Iran deal will hurt the Western alliance
https://t.co/bcaMOkOT6m
Oct 14, '17: Trump's speech scrapping JCPOA misguidedly ignores Iran's domestic
Some anons have notices "the" and "dam" and "the" vs. "to"...

Their posts included here as a thread...

https://t.co/OT6Z7ZAERH


https://t.co/d3Ct3UDKQd


https://t.co/yzMXiCBIXA


https://t.co/wpxloyHycj