Will Trump play the #PenceCard December 23 (today)?
Thread: Absolutely not. The assertion that he will hurts our credibility and the cause because people who trust some accounts pushing it will be demoralized when it doesn’t happen. Let me explain:
More from Trump
Picking up on @henryfarrell's comments here, one implication of my work on democratic breakdown is that the US should harshly punish GOP leaders who attempted to keep Trump in power despite losing the election and fomented insurrection to advance that effort. 1/n
I wrote a book a decade ago that used game theory to explore the ways democracies die and what that tells us about how and why they sometimes survive. 2/n
One implication of the formal model in that book is that normative commitments to democracy may matter less than expectations about the benefits and costs of trying to subvert democracy. 3/n
It's great when all the major players (ruling party, opposition party, and military) believe democracy is good in itself. If they don't, tho, then what matters most are their beliefs about how easily they can seize power and how costly it would be to try and fail. 4/n
I think it's pretty clear that many key players in the GOP don't see democracy as a good in itself ("we're a republic, not a democracy"). So that shifts their attention to their ability to usurp power and the costs of trying and failing. 5/n
1. Short thread - on the various claims we're seeing from Republican politicians over the last few days that the Democratic push for accountability is "divisive." Damn right it's divisive - that is what it has to be.
— Henry Farrell (@henryfarrell) January 10, 2021
I wrote a book a decade ago that used game theory to explore the ways democracies die and what that tells us about how and why they sometimes survive. 2/n
One implication of the formal model in that book is that normative commitments to democracy may matter less than expectations about the benefits and costs of trying to subvert democracy. 3/n
It's great when all the major players (ruling party, opposition party, and military) believe democracy is good in itself. If they don't, tho, then what matters most are their beliefs about how easily they can seize power and how costly it would be to try and fail. 4/n
I think it's pretty clear that many key players in the GOP don't see democracy as a good in itself ("we're a republic, not a democracy"). So that shifts their attention to their ability to usurp power and the costs of trying and failing. 5/n
I missed that DOJ has posted the individual certificates listing what offenses Trump pardoned for each person listed in his January 19 master clemency warrant, which had names but didn't spell out the covered crimes. https://t.co/oL44VoCVbr
Here's Steve Bannon's, for example.
Here's Elliot Broidy, a Trump fund-raiser who admitted to a role in a covert campaign to influence the administration on behalf of Chinese and Malaysian interests.
https://t.co/tvpHORLrps
Here's Ken Kurson, a former Giuliani speechwriter and former editor of a newspaper Jared Kushner owned, who had been charged with cyberstalking
https://t.co/HxcexSK4Sc
Here's Aviem Sella, an Israeli who had been a fugitive from 1987 esionage and subversive activities charges related to recruiting a spy against the United States, Jonathan Pollard. (He was never extradited and pardoning him was a favor toNetanyahu.)
https://t.co/neHjN57ok3
Here's Dwayne Michael Carter a/k/a Lil Wayne, who had pleaded guilty to firearm offenses
https://t.co/yixm1fTR2b
Here's Steve Bannon's, for example.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuXYxcrXYAkU7GW.png)
Here's Elliot Broidy, a Trump fund-raiser who admitted to a role in a covert campaign to influence the administration on behalf of Chinese and Malaysian interests.
https://t.co/tvpHORLrps
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuXaMHuWQAMCrGE.png)
Here's Ken Kurson, a former Giuliani speechwriter and former editor of a newspaper Jared Kushner owned, who had been charged with cyberstalking
https://t.co/HxcexSK4Sc
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuXbLc8XEAMaTTL.png)
Here's Aviem Sella, an Israeli who had been a fugitive from 1987 esionage and subversive activities charges related to recruiting a spy against the United States, Jonathan Pollard. (He was never extradited and pardoning him was a favor toNetanyahu.)
https://t.co/neHjN57ok3
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuXbz8EXYAE-glq.png)
Here's Dwayne Michael Carter a/k/a Lil Wayne, who had pleaded guilty to firearm offenses
https://t.co/yixm1fTR2b
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuXcvH0XcAUROja.png)