BC TRADING
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

1/12 Valuing a Disruptive Businesses: Naked Wines ($WINE) Case Study. In my intro last week, I promised examples of using ROIIC & reinvestment rate to value disruptors. $WINE is an eComm D2C wine model with SaaS-like outcomes. EXCELLENT DISCLOSURE makes it a good case study

 It began as an online wine retailer with many SKUs/low loyalty, but then pivoted at a pivotal moment when a top exec realized a cohort of consumers were super loyal – those that enjoyed supporting independent winemakers. @_inpractise Feast your eyes on this glorious disclosure:
Naked Wines is forecast to report approximately zero EBIT this year. As we will see, the company is not worth zero, nor does it mean Value Investors are allowed to cavalierly toss it in the “too hard” pile. Here’s a way to value Naked Wines with discipline:
Variable (1): $WINE discloses Standstill EBIT, boosted by COVID. Loyalty of $WINE’s “angels” makes EBIT stickier than some other eComms. Astute SaaS observers will note revenue retention (I assume ~78% on avg) is below B2B SaaS (95-130%). My standstill NPV implies 6.3x EV/EBIT.
Variable (2): A disclosure triumph. If slides could talk, “we reject simpleton requests to under-invest & produce 123% IRR for shareholders that truly like value creation.” Value investors, note what the V stands for in LTV. PV it. I assume payback holds 5 yrs, then slow decay
Variable (3): Do they have a chart for fixed costs along with a medium-term guidance that seems logical? Yes…yes, they do! They target fixed cost growth to be half of revenue growth.
Variable (4): As for the full maturity stub, be very careful with double-counting the value already within your high IRR CAC spend valuation in (2), but this is the smallest component in my appraisal of $WINE’s value, so let’s use our time wisely.
My output: (1)+(2)-(3)+(4) = 303m + 486m - 130m + 53m = 713m EV. This implies a warranted multiple of 6.3x EV/GP on current year. If you tend to viscerally avoid researching zero EBIT companies, consider that the high IRR CAC spending program (2) is largest part of my value!
123% IRR (2016 cohort actual) AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE PLEASE. Even insufferably holier-than-thou value investors wielding “doesn’t make any money” gibberish (I’m guilty) might agree that $WINE chooses to spend. Or would we rather they under-invest to make our models simpler?
“So, great, one scaling small cap gives you enough detail to value it. Congratulations, champ. Wake me when you’ve found a way to replicate this on other names,” says Mr. Dinosaur Value Guy, irritated after a call with a decade-long client asking for a $200m redemption.
Cheer up, Dino, and WAKE UP, we can replicate this on many names. Your valuation discipline is rightfully non-negotiable. See that meteor in the sky that looks like a @blackrock hellbent on creative destruction? Let’s do something about it: https://t.co/Wyr7F0EQK7
12/Upcoming research: Value Investors, I write provocatively to rattle some cages that need it, including my own. But a simple cheap stock can still be attractive in this market, especially with catalysts. Next is a cheap global #1 with 40-50% market share w/ 2 catalysts. /end
@Greenbackd @Symmetry_Invest @modestproposal1 @mjmauboussin @mario_cibelli @SuperMugatu @Post_Market @aaronvalue @goodinvestingc @marketplunger1 @MarcRuby @CCM_Ryan @ruth_proactive @proactive_UK
@IPafbahia @pommelhorse9 @jesperhenrikson @still_ill______ @antoniofbahia @NorthmanTrader @trailmakercap @Lawbitrage

More from Trading

Jig's Patel
Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988
Thread on Short straddle with adjustments:

Short straddle is non-directional strategy

Selling same strike price CALL/PUT option same underlying with same expiry.

Nifty Spot at 14353, So you can sell 14350 CE as well 14350 PE of 14 Jan. Expiry.

(1/n)

*RETWEET for max response

Bullish short straddle: Selling 14400 CE and 14400 PE of same expiry.

Bearish short straddle: Selling 14250 CE and 14250 PE of same expiry.

You can sell straddle as per your market view.

If you are natural view sell CE and PE at ATM strike.

(2/n)

Short straddle has limited profit potential (only premium) and unlimited risk without adjustment.

In Example, Short straddle of 14350, Breakeven is (14131.0-14569.0), need 1.7Lac Margin to sell straddle.
Maximum profit: 16k and Loss: Unlimited, Winning probability: 50%

(3/n)


If market staying near at 14350 then win. Probability increase slowly. Rewards also increase slowly.

Volatility(IV) is also play important role in selling straddle, Like If IV increase so straddle premium increase and IV cool off so premium casually comes down.

(4/n)

Short straddle adjustment:
https://t.co/59Lr64kEtK way to limit the overnight risk.
Convert short straddle in Ironfly, its nothing we have to add long strangle in short straddle it become Ironfly. It gives the good Risk Rewards.

(5/n)
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped


@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual


@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , TRADING , ALL
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,


You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.


If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet
TRADING
Anon
Anon
@AnonTrader21
A thread on getting intraday (any timeframe) data to excel without any coding. Limited to only last 60 days. Fetches from zerodha chart.

👇

1. Open the chart on zerodha web in chrome. Right click and select 'Inspect'. Click 'Network' as shown in this pic.


2. Right click on the last entry on the table you see and click 'copy as cURL (bash)'


3. Go to website https://t.co/f8rhwoGLUc and paste on the left box and click 'Run'

4. The output below candles written on right of box is the ohlc, volume and oi data. Copy and paste to excel.
TRADING
Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
“In search of the holy grail”

A thread-


Holy grail- A strategy Which can make money all the time.

After going through two phases of a traders journey, the initial success phase, and Only why do i get loss phase, Traders enter the third phase -

THE SEARCH FOR THE HOLY GRAIL PHASE.

This phase has no limits, It can end in 1 month and it may not end till lifetime.

What exactly is this phase?

When a trader covers all the basics, they know how to lower their losses, they know the power of risk management.

And few of them may even develop their edges and systems over time.

But after some time, they feel that they are doing something wrong and there is more to trading than what they know.


THEN COMES THE HOLY GRAIL PART-

Few of them start to Read more books about trading,finding articles about “How to win 100% of the time” and listening to Youtube videos of few big traders who make big in trading.
ALL , TRADING

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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Met a Brazilian-American Lyft driver from San Diego who passionately attacked the racism of Republicans, then switched to passionately defending Bolsonaro.

If I were Thomas Friedman, I could tell you what this means.

Met a Haitian-American in a restaurant who said he'd always vote for Democrats because of the immigration issue, but that he has conservative beliefs too. "I don't want to pay for someone's abortion!", he declared.

Met a Latino Lyft driver from San Jose who said that while he was liberal, California was getting too liberal for him and he was considering moving to San Antonio.

Again, not being Tom Friedman, I am unable to offer any commentary on the political and policy implications of these conversations.

I guess my only thought is that political opinions are pretty complex and multidimensional, out there in the real world.

(end)
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Antonio Garc\xeda Mart\xednez
Antonio García Martíne...
@antoniogm
Observing the public conversation around FB, and the private ones happening among techies and ex-FBers, I think the mutual misunderstanding is worse than when I set out two years (and 500 pages) ago to (in a small way) bridge that gulf.

We're basically fucked.

The tech world has gotten so huge, self-reinforcing, and insulated from reality they can no longer even vaguely look at themselves (and their actions) as others do. They just live on a different planet than most people.

Conversely, the average tech consumer doesn't understand the technology that has slowly taken over their lives, and their designated emissaries to figure it out--politicians, pundits, regulators, journalists--understand it barely better than they do, and have their own agendas.

To say more than generalities for a moment, here's what I think is likely the core problem.

Techies take weird, improbable visions, and make them realities: some BS pitch deck to a VC, mixed with money and people, really does turn into some novel thing.

Most people work inside a legacy industry that's evolved that way over time (usually for good reasons), and they think about the future via some analogy with their present (which is a function of a long-ago past). The interruption that tech will introduce is often hard to grasp.
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Most software founders, particularly in B2B, need to get radically better at sales. @Steli , who is the best person for explaining the scrappy stages in the beginning and then building out a team with scripts and processes, wrote a guide to:

For technical founders it is irrationally, obscenely hard to reverse years of programming (ba dum bum) that sales is a value-destroying activity. Sales is CLEARLY a value-creating activity, contingent on you have a value-creating product.

The world will not drop what they are doing to adopt your work. This is particularly true in B2B, where simply building a better mousetrap won't overcome the activation energy required to get people with additional non-mice problems to prioritize changing mousetraps today.

This is very non-obvious for founders because founders are not often people who *want* to be sold to. We often come from a background where trying out tools is a bit of a fun hobby. We like looking at all the options, making charts, and ripping out partially complete tests.

"This week I unsuccessfully trialed four software options for automating that thing that has been killing us. Our actual production process remains the same as last week. Don't worry; this was a great use of time." is not a thing you want to write in a progress report to manager.
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
THE MEANING, SIGNIFICANCE AND HISTORY OF SWASTIK

The Swastik is a geometrical figure and an ancient religious icon. Swastik has been Sanatan Dharma’s symbol of auspiciousness – mangalya since time immemorial.


The name swastika comes from Sanskrit (Devanagari: स्वस्तिक, pronounced: swastik) &denotes “conducive to wellbeing or auspicious”.
The word Swastik has a definite etymological origin in Sanskrit. It is derived from the roots su – meaning “well or auspicious” & as meaning “being”.


"सु अस्ति येन तत स्वस्तिकं"
Swastik is de symbol through which everything auspicios occurs

Scholars believe word’s origin in Vedas,known as Swasti mantra;

"🕉स्वस्ति ना इन्द्रो वृधश्रवाहा
स्वस्ति ना पूषा विश्ववेदाहा
स्वस्तिनास्तरक्ष्यो अरिश्तनेमिही
स्वस्तिनो बृहस्पतिर्दधातु"


It translates to," O famed Indra, redeem us. O Pusha, the beholder of all knowledge, redeem us. Redeem us O Garudji, of limitless speed and O Bruhaspati, redeem us".

SWASTIK’s COSMIC ORIGIN

The Swastika represents the living creation in the whole Cosmos.


Hindu astronomers divide the ecliptic circle of cosmos in 27 divisions called https://t.co/sLeuV1R2eQ this manner a cross forms in 4 directions in the celestial sky. At centre of this cross is Dhruva(Polestar). In a line from Dhruva, the stars known as Saptarishi can be observed.
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Anshul Pandey
Anshul Pandey
@Anshulspiritual
RISHI ASHTAVAKRA(DEVAL)

Those who are well versed in our ancient scriptures must definitely have come across the name of Ashtavakra Muni. Who was he and what is the story behind his body getting crooked from all sides.

Muni Asit was the son of Pracheta Rishi.


He was childless and this caused a lot of worry to him. But an Akashvani assured him that he should go to Shivji to get all his
worries nullified.

So he along with his wife go to Shivji and after paying him obeisance start singing Shivji's praises.

He describes Shiv as the one who is beyond any other thing, whose glory has no words to describe. After this the couple stands with folded hands in front of Rudradev. The strotras sung in praise of Shiv possess magical qualities even today.

Shiv gets satisfied by them soon and is ready to grant a boon.

Shiva told him that, he very well knew what the Muni desired. He then gives him the "Sansaar Vijay' mantra and asks him to keep reciting it. The Isht devi would come at an appropriate time and fulfill his wish.

Asit Muni kept reciting this mantra for hundred years. The Devi appeared and granted him the boon of a son as a Shivansh. A son was born and was named as Deval. He grew upto be a great scholar well versed and a handsome young man. Asit Muni got him married to Ratnamalavati.
RELIGION


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