Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary
1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble:
Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble
A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -
Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary
Unfortunately, the quip "it's not a bubble if everyone says it is" just isn't true
Investors were comparing the internet sector to tulip mania as early as mid-98. Bernstein held an entire conference on it in June 99!
In truth, the hard part about the tech bubble wasn't noticing it. The hard part was timing it
Our equity strategist tried in January 99... he was off by 14 months (and another 30 point gap in value vs growth)
Nobody noticed in March 2000 when it finally popped. Our equity strategist (who bet his career on it!) didn't catch on until June
See the valuation table below, 1 year before the top
Yes, Microsoft traded at 70x earnings. But Coca Cola was 43x. Pfizer was 92x. Every stock here was a disaster over the next 10 years...
The internet stocks were a sideshow. In 2000, the software sector had a $1 trillion market cap, 20% net margins, 20% annual growth
The problem? It was trading at 16x sales
The bubble popped in Q1 2000. Fundamentals didn't decelerate until Q4 2000.
It was reflexivity at work. Lower stock prices = less capex spend = less revenue growth = lower stock prices. A vicious cycle
More from Trading
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
🧵 A Thread 🧵
𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
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🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
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🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
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🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
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𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 :
🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
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Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.
Characteristics of a personal moat below:
I'm increasingly interested in the idea of "personal moats" in the context of careers.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
Moats should be:
- Hard to learn and hard to do (but perhaps easier for you)
- Skills that are rare and valuable
- Legible
- Compounding over time
- Unique to your own talents & interests https://t.co/bB3k1YcH5b
2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.
As Andrew Chen noted:
People talk about \u201cpassive income\u201d a lot but not about \u201cpassive social capital\u201d or \u201cpassive networking\u201d or \u201cpassive knowledge gaining\u201d but that\u2019s what you can architect if you have a thing and it grows over time without intensive constant effort to sustain it
— Andrew Chen (@andrewchen) November 22, 2018
3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized
Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than
Things that look like moats but likely aren\u2019t or may fade:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) November 22, 2018
- Proprietary networks
- Being something other than one of the best at any tournament style-game
- Many "awards"
- Twitter followers or general reach without "respect"
- Anything that depends on information asymmetry https://t.co/abjxesVIh9
4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.
After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.
5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.
In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.