BC SOCIETY
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So what happens now?

Let me try to peer into a crystal ball here in 2021 so we can drag this thread up & laugh at me and/or praise my vision in 2024

This is not what I WANT, it’s just what I think is likely to unfold over the next four years

Chime in if I forget your pet issue

 First, there’s still a split Senate & a bare majority in the House, they can’t just ram through everything Nancy has put in the docket since 2018 on Day One unless Manchin & Sinema play ball.

Which I don’t think they will on everything. No packed court, no nuked filibuster.
We will see a second stimulus & possibly a third.

Vaccine distribution will normalize & by the end of summer we’ll be in a rocky recovery.

There will be a big fight for a public option that the Dems will probably lose unless they win big in 2022 because again Manchin.
Marijuana will be rescheduled & decriminalized but likely not federally legalized unless some GOP cross the aisle. Biden will be blamed because people don’t know how the system works.

But more & more states will legalize until it doesn’t really matter.
Trump’s tax cuts will be repealed, funding will be restored to gutted departments, but the brain drain will take a long time to heal, & no one will understand why everything doesn’t go back to normal like killing the head vampire so all the other vampires just vanish.
Biden will not go after Trump. (Not his job.)

The DOJ won’t either, but I think they may go after his kids. Ivanka & Jared at least.

SDNY will take Trump on, the cases will drag out for years & likely plead out with no jail time.

The civil lawsuits will bring the real hurt.
Voter protections of some kind will get through Congress but it won’t be enough to make up for the loss of the VRA.

Election Day will be made a holiday through EO.

But mail in voting is here to stay, which will help a lot.

2024 will be super weird due to all the WFH migration.
Trump himself will never, ever be banned from Twitter. At best every tweet will get flagged.

All the GOP will learn from #Georgia is that they need the crazies to win & will pander to them exclusively until & unless they lose bigger than that margin.

Trump will play kingmaker.
However, Trump sucks at everything he does so he will be a garbage kingmaker, mainly just trying to punish those who didn’t do his coup for him rather than build a sustained movement. He’ll mostly step in when it involves someone from his hate journal, not everyday races.
I don’t think Trump will try to defect to Russia or anything—but he will probably spend a lot of time abroad dumping on America

His kids will likely sell some state secrets he didn’t bother to read

He’ll start his network but lose 10-15% of his base once the winner sheen is off
There will be Russian sanctions, but not so severe that war looks like a better choice to them than playing nicely.

Putin will technically retire but actually still pull every string.
Most of Biden & Harris’ time will be spent just uncovering damage & putting things back in order, which will take WAY longer than the public has patience for & infighting between party wings will present a very difficult road to 2022.

I expect one Big Bill, hopefully on voting
Right wing media is about to get way, way worse.

I don’t think there is any danger at all of the GOP actually splitting—they’re more practical than that. No civil war either, they cried real tears on camera when they couldn’t get haircuts.

But a lot more domestic terrorism.
There will be a path for Dreamers & immigration will loosen up again, police won’t be defunded anywhere but will be reformed in blue states somewhat, climate change will worsen but at a slower rate barring a technological breakthrough
Harris will be the new devil incarnated for the right & some parts of the left, which will make 24/28 a real rough gig for her

I honestly don’t know if she can win with the kind of hate they can drum up in four years. Everything won’t be perfect so her record won’t be hot either
Trump won’t run in 2024, but Don Jr or Ivanka absolutely will.

They won’t win, but not because we will be better then.

Because the ambition of Cruz, Hawley, Cotton, & the rest won’t take a back seat again.
None of this will be enough for anyone.

Not big enough changes for the left, not enough capitulation for the right, everyone will be mad all the time.

Dems will keep the Senate in 2022 but lose the House unless Democratic voters realy have learned a lesson.
The cultural changes from COVID will be so vast this country won’t even look like a distant cousin of the one we live in now. Idaho will go blue sooner than people think. Everyone will be looking to WFH somewhere cheaper.

These aren’t necessarily bold predictions, I know
Basically Dems will do their best to move us forward, hampered by the system they actually respect, no one will appreciate that at all, and Republicans will go completely off the farm and never come back

But they’ll still win a lot until they’re not allowed to lie & call it news

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Summarizing:

1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.

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This is a piece I've been thinking about for a long time. One of the most dominant policy ideas in Washington is that policy should, always and everywhere, move parents into paid labor. But what if that's wrong?

My reporting here convinced me that there's no large effect in either direction on labor force participation from child allowances. Canada has a bigger one than either Romney or Biden are considering, and more labor force participation among women.

But what if that wasn't true?

Forcing parents into low-wage, often exploitative, jobs by threatening them and their children with poverty may be counted as a success by some policymakers, but it’s a sign of a society that doesn’t value the most essential forms of labor.

The problem is in the very language we use. If I left my job as a New York Times columnist to care for my 2-year-old son, I’d be described as leaving the labor force. But as much as I adore him, there is no doubt I’d be working harder. I wouldn't have stopped working!

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Recently heard the podcast by @sikhyaent on Saravana Bhavan founder P Rajagopal, who stalked the young daughter of an employee & had her husband killed. Observations: the podcast's title ('Dosa King') glorifies PR, the script trivialises his crime, calling it a mere "scandal"

It refers to the whole stalking and murder episode as something that led to Rajagopal's "fall" - i.e a story of crime against a woman is turned into a story about the impact of the said crime on its perpetrator, not its victim.

It refers to the stalking victim as a fit antagonist for the protagonist Rajagopal, as Rajagopal's nemesis. But the point is, she set out to be neither. She didn't make him part of her life story. He forcibly, violently disrupted her life.

The podcast ends by telling us how Rajagopal's employees and friends and many others abuse the woman he stalked, for pursuing the case of her husband's murder and bringing Rajagopal to justice. It also tells us that some admire her. And it "asks us to decide" where we stand

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