@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
This year, for the first time, I started sharing my thoughts on various topics in Investing/Economics/Law.
Here’s a ‘Master Thread’ of my main write-ups this year.👇
@profplum99 @hkuppy @Convertbond @contrarian8888 @jam_croissant @pineconemacro @verdadcap @WayneHimelsein @LT3000Lyall @HFI_Research @SahilBloom @coloradotravis @SantiagoAuFund
9/19/2020 https://t.co/1RTLabcJh1
Why Inflation Will Kill the Ponzi Sector (and Catalyze the Long-Awaited Sector Rotation from Growth to Value)...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) September 19, 2020
A thread.
This topic was a black box to me a few weeks ago. I will try to crystallize what (I think) I now understand.
10/8/2020 https://t.co/LQuw7f3mqY
1- For the record, I\u2019m most convinced that the 2 primary drivers of this sector rotation will be i) fund flows and ii) the shift to fiscal stimulus. https://t.co/TQ2mUwHJhg
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 8, 2020
10/10/2020 https://t.co/TmrFKWd2VW
Why the Biggest Risk in Finance is Inflation (and a rising 10Y Treasury Yield).
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 10, 2020
A thread.
Hint: it has to do with the ubiquitous Risk Parity framework.
10/10/2020 https://t.co/sYYqVkAMsT
I\u2019m getting this question a lot. Where will inflation come from? What will cause it to rise?
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 11, 2020
I know the opinions on inflation are many and varied, but here\u2019s my take.
A thread. https://t.co/0Y5yaqiBH9
10/12/2020 https://t.co/xH6bTTbxgv
1- Great chart. Deflationary downdrafts will not be extinguished, but throughout history, inflation is quite consistent.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 12, 2020
Note also that each low on the chart is higher than the previous, and so is each high. https://t.co/lmzCtWIcBS pic.twitter.com/3fmiEstDXV
10/14/2020 https://t.co/es50d3kTy9
Why We\u2019re on the Precipice of Another Bitcoin Mania...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 14, 2020
A thread.
Note: it has nothing to do with Bitcoin replacing fiat money anytime soon.
10/22/2020 https://t.co/NY60UVpa7P
Time for a thread about US NatGas and why it will surprise to the upside...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 22, 2020
There\u2019s an exceptional opportunity setting up in the energy space, in particular for US NatGas and related equities.
I\u2019ll explain the setup in this thread and also reveal my top pick. \U0001f920
10/24/2020 https://t.co/GFS0NwzCCT
The progression of price inflation can be explained in 3 stages:
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 24, 2020
Stage 1: Low Inflation. Low inflation is when prices increase just a little. People don\u2019t much notice. Life goes on. https://t.co/G0G1covcsa
10/30/2020 https://t.co/tKQROIB4CT
This week was... interesting. The election turbulence that some were predicting finally materialized.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) October 30, 2020
The most notable day of the week, IMO, was Wednesday: stocks sold off by more than 3.5%, while Treasuries offered no protection.
Risk Parity continues to teeter.
A thread.
11/1/2020 https://t.co/xr1Z826pP8
I finally gave this episode a listen. Great and provocative interview as always from @ErikSTownsend.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 1, 2020
Below I\u2019ll share some general comments on MMT along with some thoughts that came to mind while listening to Erik\u2019s conversation with @StephanieKelton.
A thread. https://t.co/ORvjCZJyd8
11/09/2020 https://t.co/4XgQjlLeQt
Mega blowout in $QQQ / $IWN spread this morning.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 9, 2020
Energy complex on fire too. \U0001f525
Tech at incredibly stretched levels, with increasingly negative beta to C19.
Markets teaching us a lesson about fast & violent sector rotations. 1100bps this morning... Keep pushing till it snaps. pic.twitter.com/UHpFEJuZHu
11/10/2020 https://t.co/OON5foFBXd
Fantastic thread. Brief summary:
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 10, 2020
-Mkt cap of lower real rate beneficiaries (tech, bonds, etc.) is ~$24T, comprising largest share of $SPX + $RTY mkt cap (69%) in history.
-Equities are positioned for deflation/lower real rates, when higher rates are more likely over next 12mos. https://t.co/yga7ifdUnw
11/13/2020 https://t.co/3wJgEsGt0Z
What a week.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 13, 2020
Tech (QQQ) -1.32%
Small Value (IWN) +8.82%
Energy (XLE) +17.04%
Who\u2019s having fun? pic.twitter.com/tyubwjZmuG
11/16/2020 https://t.co/PU4V0u9Qox
What\u2019s up with bond yields?
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 16, 2020
The consensus scenario appears to be that yields stay pegged at zero forever and beyond. I just don\u2019t buy it.
Let\u2019s imagine why long term rates would rise (Part 1), and what would happen if they did, even if just a little (Part 2).
A thread. https://t.co/DfsG81HWbb
11/20/2020 https://t.co/HZdHgU3qae
The Next Bitcoin Mania is Here...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 20, 2020
The main thesis (explained in the thread below) has been that rising institutional demand coupled with an already-tiny float will catapult Bitcoin higher in the short to medium term.
Brief update.\U0001f447 https://t.co/es50d3kTy9
11/20/2020 https://t.co/eDhM1NzeZl
1- $GBTC makes it a lot easier for institutions and retirement accounts to own Bitcoin. So in a sense, it does increase demand, by increasing accessibility.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 20, 2020
Institutions that otherwise would not have been able to buy are now buying thanks to $GBTC (and other similar products). https://t.co/hekHzEVmEN
11/29/2020 https://t.co/gEg6cxZtRR
Why the Growth/Value Rotation is Likely Still in its Early Innings...
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) November 30, 2020
A thread.
Lots of talk about whether this \u201cvalue pop\u201d in Nov will prove to be short-lived or whether it has legs. https://t.co/1RTLabcJh1
12/10/2020 https://t.co/21tvf0JjJc
Brief note on the Growth/Value Rotation.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) December 10, 2020
I have been using the $QQQ / $IWN ratio to proxy the Large Growth and Small Value factors respectively.
Admittedly, these are imperfect proxies, as they conflate Growth/Value factors with Momentum/Anti-Momentum factors. https://t.co/gEg6cxZtRR
12/20/2020 https://t.co/GPu8lfZay0
The problem with listening to @Jkylebass is that he can convince me of almost anything.
— BVDDY (@BvddyCorleone) December 21, 2020
Great episode nonetheless with many interesting topics covered. Kyle made some points that I think are worth discussing.
Here are some highlights.\U0001f447\U0001f447 https://t.co/oJHQkmOa3q
More from Society
A thread exploring the Nashville bombing in the context of the 2020 Digital War (via SolarWinds) against the United States perpetrated by our enemies, likely China, Iran and/or Russia.
SolarWinds Hack
A digital "Pearl Harbor" moment for the United States, whoever was responsible had access to the keys to the kingdom for months during 2020, including sensitive military infrastructure. This is war!
SunGard + SolarWinds
SolarWinds software company is owned by same company that owns SunGard, which essentially provides data center services. A secure place to host internet servers with redundant power and "big pipe" data connections.
https://t.co/U3P3SrrkM1
SunGard Data Center
In Nashville, around the corner from their "big pipe" connection, AT&T. Like any data center, highly secure. Only authorized personnel can enter, and even fewer can access the actual server rooms. Backup generators are available in case of power failure.
If the SunGard hardware was being used to "host" critical command and control software related to SolarWinds, the US powers would be very interested in gaining special access keys that are stored on the hard-drives of specific servers.
Thread:
The immigration bill text is out!
— Nicole Narea (@nicolenarea) February 18, 2021
Senate version: https://t.co/aJUmtVW6Ir
House version: https://t.co/JMKjQaDi04
Excuse me while I go at this with a highlighter.
First the Bill makes a series of promises changes to the way we talk about immigrants and immigration law.
Gone would be the term "alien" and in its place is "noncitizen."
Also gone would be the term "alienage," replaced with "noncitizenship."
Now we get to the "earned path to citizenship" for all undocumented immigrants present in the United States on January 1, 2021.
Under this bill, anyone who satisfies the eligibility criteria for a new "lawful prospective immigrant status" can come out of the shadows.
So, what are the eligibility criteria for becoming a "lawful prospective immigrant status"? Those are in a new INA 245G and include:
- Payment of the appropriate fees
- Continuous presence after January 1, 2021
- Not having certain criminal record (but there's a waiver)
After a person has been in "lawful prospective immigrant status" for at least 5 years, they can apply for a green card, so long as they still pass background checks and have paid back any taxes they are required to do so by law.
However! Some groups don't have to wait 5 years.