BC SOCIETY
Saved by @Alex1Powell

global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.

 above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.
clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.
this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.
this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

everyone got the same R curve

https://t.co/5iPbLaBGZd
lockdowns were a panic response.

they came LONG after disease growth curves had rolled over and had no effect overall.

it's clear when you plot google mobility data vs disease curves.

(this is from may)
r2 was ~0. this was all proven by may and strongly argued by april.

this data is literally overwhelming. there is just no evidence that lockdowns work.
spain and netherlands had radically different responses

https://t.co/drxx2RqJtA
but got R curves that were all but indistinguishable.

this issue crops up everywhere.

mitigation has zero effect.
similarly, there is no evidence that opening again had any effect either.
and this was all known. every set of longstanding pandemic guidelines contra-indicated lockdowns.

https://t.co/sFdUYqPoZy
it's 50 year old pseudoscience and the clarity with which NPI was dismissed by everyone until this year when we suddenly abandoned 100 years of science and started making stuff up and moralizing about it as though it were canon is stunning.
the same is true of masks.

just last year the WHO surveyed this and found that community masking does not work.

nothing has changed.

https://t.co/viMzUEfWTH
the "studies" trotted out this year are so awful as to beggar belief. they are either nonsensical lab bench presumption devoid of clinical or social outcome, or they are contrived cherry picks lacking controls.

the CDC used this one. it's risible.

https://t.co/IBVypITIr8
CDC and gottlieb later pushed this study which is outright fraud.

https://t.co/qY66ZavM3N
and you can see piles of data from the swiss policy research institute here:

https://t.co/Vyqmmo0wIx
there is no sound evidence that community masking has any effect. the evidence they work as "source control" is entirely speculative and made up.

the fact that they increase, not decrease post op infection in surgical theaters is pretty damning.

https://t.co/Ivb7FxPtYj
and now that it's becoming clear that asymptotic spread is vanishingly rare, we can really put the final nail in the NPI coffin.

this is the vector these interventions mean to head off.

but it was never a serious source of infection.

https://t.co/aMRCAF7g9E
the simple fact is this: nothing we have done has made any meaningful difference

covid is seasonal and regional. when your season comes, it comes

NPI is not why california and peru and eastern europe did not get hit in the spring

it was just regional

https://t.co/NZYN1v9vsa
then your season comes and everyone moves together.

we've been mistaking baby oil for suncreeen in places where it was still night time.

then, noon came and it was revealed for what it really was.

https://t.co/Aq5WEWzR5L
this means that all this moralizing about "you just want grandma to die" and the censorship of evidence counter to this "big lie" that lockdowns work has been at best a disastrous mistake and at worst, a cynical ploy to wreak havoc and cover past errors.
politicians are now doubling and trebling down on lockdowns and masks because to do otherwise is to admit that they bought us $10 trillion of sugar water as medicine and wrecked our lives and livelihoods for no sound reason.

they will never do that.
this is why they have shifted the debate to morality and censorship: to mask the fact that the science and the data calls them liars.

repeat "i'm on the side of science" enough and scare people endlessly and you can generate social belief.

but it's pure propaganda.
these mitigations do not work to stop covid or to reduce overall deaths.

this is the most expensive peace time policy debacle in human history and they all want to do it again.

say no. stand up.

this is not medicine, it's poison.

this does not save lives, it wrecks them.
it's easy to sell false hope to scared people. there are whole industries that prey on the desperation of parents with sick kids.

but sometimes, there is just not much you can do however much you want control and want to "do something".

this is one of those times.
and we need to accept that.

many times, the best way to "do something" is to do nothing.

"something" in this case has been a absolute disaster.

we panicked into unprecedented global self-harm.

it's time to stop. this is just making it worse

stay brave. stay free. stay safe.
apparently, the link i used for the asymptomatic spread study is down (crashed from so much traffic).

this is the article it cites.

https://t.co/dfPSqmTr20
also:

this is the methodology for policy stringency.

we can obviously debate weighting and values, but i checked it against the google mobility data i have used and it lined up quite well. the output looks reasonable to me.

https://t.co/OnAwKjhBVU

More from el gato malo

el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
google censorship of great barrington declaration: update.

this morning, there was no link to it in a direct google search.

now, there is.

could this be because certain internet felines noticed this and @chiproytx and @tedcruz helped call them out on this?

we may never know.


but i'd like to think so.

the google page is still a mess. it's still mostly fringe publication hit pieces and conspiracy theories.

when "mother jones" is your top media result for a science search, well, that says it all, doesn't it?

yikes.

i mean, why would we trust THESE people instead of a reporter at one of the most partisan rags on earth? oh, wait..

they are not being censored for being wrong. they're being censored for being right and being credible

they're censored because the other side cannot rebut them


and that is simply not a thing we can or should tolerate, especially not in a search engine.

so remember this. look for it in the future. demand primary sources.

use other search engines.

bing seems to be seeking to inform, not to inflame and mislead.


if you missed it, the original thread was here:

(and yes, lots of people duplicated my finding this morning)

i'd be curious to see what they are all seeing
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el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
anyone currently shocked by the fact that the politicians in power recant and reverse the views they held when they were in opposition (and vice versa) has simply not paid any attention to history.

that's 100% to be expected.

where you stand depends up where you sit.

always.


this latest biden refusal to commit to a view on packing SCOTUS until after the election is just this same phenomenon.

if he wins, he's for packing it. if he loses, he'll be against it.

this is because almost none of these people stand on any principles.

they just seek power.


this is why it's so hard to trust any of them.

and why shouldn't they act this way?

it's what we reward. we all accept their lies even when we KNOW they are lies. we elect them anyway.

we accept that all we ever get is the lesser of evils.

will biden pay any price? nope.


it's behavioralism 101

the fault lies not w/ these narcissistic liars & sociopaths, it lies with us

we're the ones electing them & putting up with monstrous & dishonest behavior because "it's not as bad as what the other guy would do."

those are the railroad tracks to tyranny.


it demands a question:

if the outcome of an election is so impactful that it can make or ruin your life or save or lose the republic (as many claim it is) is that not proof positive that the government is FAR too powerful?

do you really want to gamble for such stakes?
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el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
from the "make orwell fiction again" files:

google has memory holed the great barrington declaration

not only have they wiped it from the top results, they have salted it with false claims about "climate denial"

it's pure, simple propaganda

here's bing (who plays it straight)


simple, right? here's the declaration, here's the wiki page.

you can see the authors, kulldorf, gupta, bhattacharya's names and know this this was written by medical professors at harvard, stanford, and oxford.

there's no slant, not editorializing, it's primary source info.

now let's have a look at google.

pretty different looking results, huh? not only do they not lead with the declaration itself or its authors, they lead with dishonest hit pieces.

they try to tie it to climate denial and fake science.

um, no. this is "fake search."


the google results for "great barrington declaration" are simply not search results at all.

it's a propagandistic hit piece ducking the science, ignoring the credentials of the authors, failing to show the declaration, and spinning it as some kind of fringe cabal of "deniers."


it's staggeringly blatant once you see it, but will anyone?

or will they be fooled by this because it's subtle and you think google is a search engine, not a radicalized editorial column.

and it's now EVERYWHERE.

reddit will not allow users to see
SOCIETY
el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
this simple, counter narrative fact keeps cropping up all over the world.

hospital and ICU utilization has been and remains low this year.

it's terribly curious that so few of these monitoring tools provide historical baselines.

getting them is like pulling teeth.


we might think of this as an oversight until you see stuff like this:

this woman was arrested for filming and sharing the fact that their are empty hospitals in the UK.

that's full blown soviet. what possible honest purpose does that

this is the action of a police state and a propaganda ministry, not a well intentioned government and a public heath agency.

"we cannot let people see the truth for fear they might base their actions on real facts" is not much of a mantra for just governance.


90% full ICU sounds scary until you realize that 90-100% full is normal in flu season.

staffed ICU beds are expensive to leave empty. it's like flying with 15% of the plane empty. hospitals don't do that.

and all US hospitals are mandated to be able to flex to 120% ICU.

the US is currently at historically low ICU utilization for this time of year.

61% is "you're all going to go out of business" territory as is 66% full hospital use.

can you blame them for mining CARES act money? they'll die without it.
HEALTH
el gato malo
el gato malo
@boriquagato
the US runs its covid testing at 40Ct.

this is 1024X the amplification level of this cutoff for finding live virus that is in any way clinically relevant.

but please, tell me again how demanding more such testing is "science" and not "flooding the data w/ meaningless positives"
PCR

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1/OK, I should really write another thread about university-centric regional development, because I think people often make some (very understandable) mistakes when thinking about this issue.

2/The biggest myth, I think, is that universities help regions by educating locals as undergraduates.

Skeptics of universities say: "But most of the people who graduate end up leaving."

3/In fact, most of what a university does for a regional economy is NOT about educating local kids.

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It's been a whole day since we tweeted Part 2 of this chapter, so let us remind you: #AdamSmith just said that the colonies got nothing that helped them succeed from the mother country. (IV.vii.c) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

So these two opening sentences are pretty heckin’ sarcastic:
Now we've seen the great advantages the colonies got (they got nothing!) (IV.vii.c.1)
So what have been the great advantages to Europe! (IV.vii.c.2)

Seems like there’s a...tone there. #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets


Europeans buy goods from America, and Americans buy European goods as well. Even countries that don’t trade directly with America have benefited. (IV.vii.c.3–8) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

The mother countries restrict colonial trade (esp the exclusive right to buy from or sell to their colonies). That's a dead weight on the increase of the wealth of nations. Everything is more expensive, everyone enjoys less of it. (IV.vii.c.9) #WealthOfTweets #SmithTweets

Maybe European countries get added security? In ancient times, empires expected military support and revenue from their colonies, and they got it.
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at some point we have to recognise that the financial anxiety young people are living through is not normal. monetising all your hobbies is not normal. hustle culture is not normal. glorifying precarious work is not normal. self-optimisation is not normal.

all these issues have a single root and guess what? it's the economic system we live under!! but we're too fucking exhausted to even see an alternative to capitalism because we're so broken and fatigued by it. it doesn't have to be this way, we can seek a different future.

As Mark Fisher argued, it's easier to imagine the end of the world than it is the end of capitalism. We've been utterly brainwashed by every part of our society to think that everything we're experiencing right now is extremely normal! But clearly, capitalism is failing us.

How about instead of “manifesting” money on TikTok, we work towards building a more equal society? Just a thought.

Incredible! People in the replies to this are like “people who hustle will be relaxing when they get wealthy”. That’s IF and not when and still, that’s not a given. The fact we don’t see having a regular full-time job as enough “hustling” or whatever is so scary to me.
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