NEW: Freedom of Information request confirms half of all male prisoners who identify as trans have at least conviction for sexual offending

Legislators and policy makers must make evidenced-based decisions to ensure the impact on all affected groups is considered, understood and fairly balanced. This means they need information on the demographics of different groups in society, including for transwomen /2
Our evidence matters in two areas of law: Equality Act 2010 & GRA2004. It helps service providers evaluate whether their single-sex service is a "proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim". It also informs legislators on the impact of GRA reform on women in prison /3
What's new: Previously sex crime statistics were given for transgender prisoners as a whole. The information for transwomen and transmen was combined so there was some doubt expressed over which group was actually responsible for committing the sex crimes /4
We now have sex crime data from the MOJ according to the trans person's legal sex, their gender identity, or whether they are in a men's prison or a women's prison. This means we can draw conclusions regarding the cohort of male-born transgender prisoners specifically /5
Stats show transwomen exhibit a high propensity to commit sexual crime similar to that observed for men. They do not exhibit a low propensity to commit sexual crime like that observed for women /6
Identifying as a woman does not reduce the risk the male sex poses to others. If identifying as a women did reduce the risk to low female levels we would have expected to see just 3 or 4 of transwomen in prison with sex crime convictions. Instead we see up to 76. /7
Facts are not transphobic: Good policy making means policy makers need to understand why their specific women-only space is needed and whether this can be achieved with a policy based on gender identity or birth sex. /8
GRA reform would mean all 129 transwomen currently held on the men’s estate (including the 76 transwomen sex offenders) could obtain a GRC on demand. The prison system would then have to treat them differently and move them to the women's estate, including the sex offenders /9
High risk prisoners would go to the trans unit at Downview women’s prison. During the day some of these high-risk trans prisoners will “have access to the …. activities within the main site alongside other women”. /10
The number of sex offenders in women's prisons could double overnight. Half of them now being male sex offenders. /11
This is a practical example of what GRA reform would mean for women. Women in prison are stakeholders in GRA reform. The idea that GRA reform only impacts transwomen is demonstrably wrong. /12
Read our article for the full data analysis and discussion /13
https://t.co/8JScsN5m1k

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Brief thread to debunk the repeated claims we hear about transmission not happening 'within school walls', infection in school children being 'a reflection of infection from the community', and 'primary school children less likely to get infected and contribute to transmission'.

I've heard a lot of scientists claim these three - including most recently the chief advisor to the CDC, where the claim that most transmission doesn't happen within the walls of schools. There is strong evidence to rebut this claim. Let's look at


Let's look at the trends of infection in different age groups in England first- as reported by the ONS. Being a random survey of infection in the community, this doesn't suffer from the biases of symptom-based testing, particularly important in children who are often asymptomatic

A few things to note:
1. The infection rates among primary & secondary school children closely follow school openings, closures & levels of attendance. E.g. We see a dip in infections following Oct half-term, followed by a rise after school reopening.


We see steep drops in both primary & secondary school groups after end of term (18th December), but these drops plateau out in primary school children, where attendance has been >20% after re-opening in January (by contrast with 2ndary schools where this is ~5%).

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