BC POLITICS
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

Lots of ordinary Republicans are endorsing violence. We'd like that number to drop, but the precipitating causes deserve our focus even more than trying to persuade that violence is inappropriate. The main trouble is they trust & follow bad leaders. 1/

 Lots of Rep leaders, led by the president & other extremists, encouraged direct action. That explicit behavioral leadership is the biggest risk for violence. We've seen other presidential violence effects when Trump has targeted individuals, spiking death threats against them. 2/
Related is the dangerous lie Trump and many Rep leaders have broadcast, claiming w/o a shred of credible evidence that the election was somehow fraudulent. @LilyMasonPhD & I found in Nov that the false belief that Dems cheated *doubled* Rep support for anti-Biden violence. 3/
Specifically: Reps supporting a military coup were 9% if no cheating & 16% if cheating belief, 8% vs. 14% for National Guard resistance by states, and 16% vs. 30% for ordinary citizens to prepare weapons to resist in their communities. Paired w/ action calls, that's bad. 4/
In Oct, we asked partisans if they trust their party's leaders to tell them the truth about the election results. 90% of Dems said prob or def yes, as did 87% of Reps. Notably, definitely was 54% for Dems but 32% for Reps. So some doubt there, but not enough. 5/
The big picture is the epistemic crisis that conservative leaders have caused in the party. Their multi-decade effort to discredit all sources of expert information has led an active fraction of the Rep party to only trust what their top leaders say. 6/ https://t.co/cfg6Q5CWiU
That exclusive trust becomes an even bigger problem when the party leadership is unable to control who leads the party, putting it at risk of takeover by demagogues like Trump, who enflame the party's worst instincts that preexisted him. 7/ https://t.co/2lSO1nT3ua
Of course, the even bigger picture motivating the violence comes into view when we recognize this as part of a multi-century conflict involving white supremacy & Christian nationalism against democratic egalitarianism. Reps are becoming an ethnic party. 8/ https://t.co/5xXKrTnq1n
Historically, US partisan violence has been most acute when partisanship & conflicting social identities like race & religion align. The Civil War, Reconstruction, & the establishment of Jim Crow are those. 9/ https://t.co/SGLWSSjcZL
This is true globally, too, as work by @joshua_gubler & Joel Selway shows. Civil wars are most likely when social IDs & contexts are aligned. That has individual psych parallels in @LilyMasonPhD's work showing that partisan animosity is highest when social identities align. 10/
Lily & I have evidence for our book that racist and sexist views enflame Republican animosity toward Democrats (reinforcing party reputations) while weakening Democrats' animosity toward Republicans (cross-cutting). 11/
I've gone on too long, so let's wrap up: the prox cause here is Rep leaders misleading Rep voters in election beliefs & action. They exclusively trust party leaders & linked social groups due to a long project to discredit all others. And ethno-nationalism is behind that. /end
p.s. I forgot to link @LilyMasonPhD's book. Our co-authored book project is "Radical American Partisanship: Mapping Violent Hostility, Its Causes, & What It Means for Democracy."

We're finishing it this spring, available next year. https://t.co/FviarxehU4
And here's the civil wars work by @joshua_gubler & Selway I mentioned. I could add a lot more cites here, of course, but other duties are calling... https://t.co/Uzz2ojImEC
And shout-outs to @MattGrossmann, @DaveAHopkins, @julia_azari, & @owasow whose essays I linked above but didn't tag.
15% of Reps endorsing the Capitol attack is similar to what Lily & I see for party violence more generally.

It is a notable decline from the 45% supporting the attack the night of the attack in YouGov’s survey. Likely due to many Rep leaders against it. https://t.co/QwF1wHJ1Tr
And lastly (again), I haven't said anything on the role of extremist groups, micro-motives of who acts vs. not, & other dynamics beyond broad environment & public views. For that, you should turn to ppl like @jjmacnab, @MiaMBloom, @orensegal, @RachelKleinfeld, @engagedscholar.
You should also read essays by @hakeemjefferson emphasizing the synergy between Republican extremism and white power... https://t.co/u1tJVgP2uZ

And @Davin_Phoenix on the prevalence & effects of racial anger gaps for political action in an unequal nation.
https://t.co/5ujiqQi50w

More from Politics

Cate Eland
Cate Eland
@RomancingNope
TRUMP'S COUP TIMELINE

* This thread will use military time and EST time zone for any times provided.

November 7, 2020 - The press calls the 2020 presidential election for now President-elect Joe Biden, 4 days after the election.

November 9, 2020

After meeting with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and in violation of standing Department of Justice policy not to interfere in elections, US Attorney General Bill Barr authorizes federal prosecutors to investigate claims of electoral fraud.

Richard Pilger, the head of the DoJ’s Election Crimes Branch, resigns in response to Barr’s memo.

Trump fires Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. In response, Esper says, “Who’s going to come in behind me? It’s going to be a real ‘yes man.’ And then God help us.”

Trump immediately names Christopher Miller Acting Secretary of Defense.

Trump follows Esper’s firing with firing the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence, and the Chief of Staff to the Secretary of Defense, constituting a “near total decapitation of civilian leadership” at the Pentagon.
POLITICS
Mike Dunford
Mike Dunford
@questauthority
THREAD:
Good afternoon, followers of frivolous election litigation. There's a last-minute entry in the competition for dumbest pre-inauguration lawsuit - a totally loony effort to apparently leave the entire USA without a government.

We'll start with the complaint in a minute.

But first, I want to give you a quick explanation for why I'm going to keep talking about these cases even after the inauguration.

They're part of an ongoing effort - one that's not well-coordinated but is widespread - to discredit our fundamental system of government.

It's a direct descendent, in more ways than one, of birtherism. And here's the thing about birtherism. It might have been a joke to a lot of people, but it was extremely pernicious. It obviously validated the racist "not good enough to be President" crowd. But that wasn't all.

Don't get me wrong, that was bad enough. Validating racism helped put the kind of shitbird who would tweet this from an official government account into power. But it didn't stop


(Also, if you agree with Pompeo about multiculturalism - the legendary melting pot - not being what this country is all about, you need to stop following me now. And maybe go somewhere and think about your life choices and what made you such a tool.)
POLITICS
Advertisement
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(MAJOR NOTE) The reason Manafort took over Trump's campaign in just 3 weeks despite being hired as a mere delegate counter is that ROGER STONE initiated a whisper campaign against Corey Lewandowski. That campaign started...days after Manafort returned from meeting with WikiLeaks.

2/ Stone and Manafort are longtime business partners; we'd expect Manafort to tell Stone what Assange told him, and for him to expect Stone to then pressure the campaign not only to hire him but quickly elevate him.

And who was Stone in touch with at the campaign? Trump himself.

3/ I bet you Manafort's late March emails are very interesting and that some of them are to/from his longtime business associate Roger Stone. And I bet Roger Stone's late March phone calls are very interesting and that some of them are to/from his longtime friend Donald Trump.

4/ At the end of March 2016, Trump suddenly convenes a NatSec meeting. At that meeting he directs his NatSec team to change the RNC platform in July to benefit Putin. Who later takes credit for that change?

Paul Manafort's business associate, Kremlin agent Konstantin Kilimnick.

5/ Why did Donald Trump suddenly convene a NatSec meeting 3 days after he finally hired Manafort? Why did he issue a pro-Kremlin directive at that meeting that Manafort's camp would later take credit for? What did Manafort tell Trump in the days leading up to that NatSec meeting?
POLITICS
POJU OYEMADE
POJU OYEMADE
@pastorpoju
1. (On politics) I was once in a conversation with an elderly friend of mine who is American. He is deeply involved in politics in the States and I asked about what he had learnt. He said, "our movement pushed and mobilised and we got (.........) into the white house."

2. "However, we saw that our interests were not executed by him then we realised in a democratic setting sometimes its the people that surround the president or anyone in executive positions that really matter. Those he speaks to first and last.
We therefore changed our strategy"

3. We do support but now with the intent of placing people around the elected officers.
There is a lot of space for influence in positions that are non elective. Every executive leader leans on people to help in developing ideas and in executing them.

4. The young folks should be looking here. Elective positions like Governorship etc can be very expensive. Legitimate costs will run into hundreds of millions but there are positions for assistants, tech advisers, etc that wield alot of influence in shaping policy and direction.

5. If you want to change things you must get your foot into the room and have a seat at the table. The least position there will wield more power than being an critic on the outside. In positions like this skill, loyalty and confidentiality are the requirements and not money.
POLITICS
The Dude
The Dude
@JurisDudence
This is partly what makes it impossible to have a constructive conversation nowadays. The stubborn refusal to accept that opposition to Trumpism and GOP nationalism is about more than simply holding different beliefs about things in and of itself. 👇


It's fine for people to hold different beliefs. But that doesn't mean all beliefs deserve equal treatment or tolerance and it doesn't mean intolerance of some beliefs makes a person intolerant of every belief which they don't share.

So if I said I don't think Trumpism deserves to be tolerated because it's just a fresh 21st century coat of cheap paint on a failed, dangerous 20th century ideology (fascism) that doesn't mean I'm intolerant of all beliefs with which I disagree. You'd think this would be obvious.

Another important facet. People who support fascist movements tend to give what they think are valid reasons for supporting them. That doesn't mean anyone is obliged to tolerate fascism or accept their proffered excuse.


Say you joined a neighborhood group that sets up community gardens and does roadside beautification projects. All good, right? Say one day you're having a meeting and you notice the President and exec board of this group are saying some bizarre things about certain neighbors.
POLITICS

You May Also Like

Art Historian* \U0001fa94
Art Historian* 🪔...
@Arthistorian18
The last Hindu king of Pakistan.

The name Amarkot is known to all in our subcontinent as the birthplace of Emperor Akbar. When Humayun was fleeing from Sher Shah, Rana Prasad of Amarkot sheltered him and this is where Emperor Akbar was born.

#Thread
1/19
@talesofBharat


They have always maintained friendly relations with the rulers. The Mughal court and the Rana of Amarkot had special respect because Emperor Akbar was born in the shelter of Amarkot Raj. They did not even have to attend court regularly.

2/19

Dara Shikohar provided Rana supplies to Amarkot during his expedition to Kandahar.
But another reason why the name of this Amarkot is inextricably linked with the history of the subcontinent is the partition of the country.
Sodha is the family name of the Maharajas of..

3/19

Amarkot,They were originally known as Sodha Rajputs. Despite possessing a very small kingdom, he was far ahead in terms of wealth and honor. During the British rule, Rana Ratan Singh led the anti-British movement in Sindh. In 1753, the British occupied the state of Amarkot,
4/19

which was his and his ancestral home, and hanged Rana Ratan Singh on a high platform on the walls of Amarkot fort. It hangs in front for a few days. Even today, a folk song called "Mor tor tilaya rana" is very popular in Sindhi language.
After the capture of the fort by the
5/19
ALL
Arif Hasan\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Arif Hasan🇮🇳...
@arifhasan18
5 star RSI Strategy by @VishalMalkan

Unconventional approach of 60-40 RSI and range shift concept.

According to him,
whenever the market is bearish,
it won’t be able to cross 60,
and whenever in a bullish trend,
it won’t be able to cross 40.

Like & Retweet for Maximum Reach.

So, instead of the 70-30 Relative Strength Index,
we will use the 60-40 range for the RSI indicator for this strategy.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI>60,
& when the RSI takes support at 40 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go below 40.

If a bullish candle is formed at the 40 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back, and one can enter the stock.

The stoploss can be placed at the low of that bullish candlestick,
and the target can be the 60 RSI level.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI<40,
& when the RSI takes resistance at 60 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go above 60

If a bearish candle is formed at the 60 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back from there, & 1 can enter the stock 4 shorting

The stoploss can be placed at the high of that bearish candlestick, and the target can be the 40 RSI levels.

#banknifty

This range shift concept can be applied in any timeframe,
whether intraday, daily,weekly, etc.
ALL
Advertisement
Roger Grosse
Roger Grosse
@RogerGrosse
Important paper from Google on large batch optimization. They do impressively careful experiments measuring # iterations needed to achieve target validation error at various batch sizes. The main "surprise" is the lack of surprises. [thread]

https://t.co/7QIx5CFdfJ


The paper is a good example of lots of elements of good experimental design. They validate their metric by showing lots of variants give consistent results. They tune hyperparamters separately for each condition, check that optimum isn't at the endpoints, and measure sensitivity.

They have separate experiments where the hold fixed # iterations and # epochs, which (as they explain) measure very different things. They avoid confounds, such as batch norm's artificial dependence between batch size and regularization strength.

When the experiments are done carefully enough, the results are remarkably consistent between different datasets and architectures. Qualitatively, MNIST behaves just like ImageNet.

Importantly, they don't find any evidence for a "sharp/flat optima" effect whereby better optimization leads to worse final results. They have a good discussion of experimental artifacts/confounds in past papers where such effects were reported.
MACHINE LEARNING
Savitri Mumukshu - \u0938\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924\u094d\u0930\u0940 \u092e\u0941\u092e\u0941\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0941
Savitri Mumukshu - साव...
@MumukshuSavitri
1/n
The kingdom of Sindh was ruled by its last Hindu king Raja Dahir during the 8th century. When Muhammad-bin-Qasim invaded Sindh, he decimated Sindh in his savage bloodlust. The chronicles of his advent are described in the Chachnama.


2/n
The Chachnama describes in detail how the Arabs led by butcher Qasim conquered Sindh. It tells the terrible tale of bravery, treachery, & carnage marking the entry of Islamic conquest of India’s Hindus.


3/n
When Muhammad-bin-Qasim attacked Sindh, Dahir had collected an army of 50,000 horses and marched from Brahamanabad to Rawar to face the invader. Qasim had an army that numbered in the tens of thousands with camels & horses.

4/n
Earlier Arab Alafis - Syeds from Prophet Mohammed’s own family had fled from Mecca with 500 men to Sindh and Raja Dahir had given them asylum. Trusting these Muslims would prove to be the fatal mistake for the downfall of Sindh & pave the way for Islamic invasion.

5/n
On an “auspicious day” in A.D. 711, fixed by astrologers, Mohammed Bin Qasim started for Sindh at the head of the Iraqi, Syrian, and other Arab soldiers. His horses and camels were disguised to look like lions and elephants. Rebel Jats also joined Qasim’s army.
ALL , GANDHARITIHAS
Pat Walls
Pat Walls
@thepatwalls
And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

The winners 👇

#10

Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


#9

Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


#8

SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


#7

CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!
MAKERS