BC POLITICS
Saved by @Jacobtldr

Reading this article (in which I'm quoted near the end), I realized why I have such a strong visceral reaction to some of the negative coverage of @ProfEmilyOster's work on #COVID19 and schools...https://t.co/lE0qHDIJ8v 1/

 ..The treatment of @ProfEmilyOster reminds of 2016 press coverage of @HillaryClinton! An outsized focus on that woman's flaws had big long-term consequences.(I'm not a media studies or communications person, so I may be totally off, but I swear there's a PhD thesis in here! 2/
On to my promised tweets on #epitwitter data about #SARSCoV2/#COVID19 among children and particularly in school settings. It's less comprehensive than I hoped, but I'm trying not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good... 3/
First, I disagree with the premise of many articles that we don't know enough to start making some conclusions about schools and risk. In particular, @DFTBubbles updates its amazing comprehensive literature syntheses on a regular basis 4/
The studies with the strongest scientific designs are consistent in a few respects: young kids (<10 yo) seem less likely than older children & adults to get & transmit #SARSCoV2 even in settings of close contact like households. It's not zero risk, but much less than adults 5/
This age difference is important for thinking about public health policy -- and the transmission risks we expect in a given room of 5 year olds vs. a room of 17 yos vs. a bar full of 20-somethings 6/
One of the critiques of this literature is that much from non-US settings with lower case counts. This reminds me of the reverse exceptionalism where folks in US thought, "China & Italy can't happen here." Or rural folks thinking, "NYC won't happen here"... 7/
Just because data from a different setting doesn't mean it has no application. As epidemiologists, we're trained to identify critical biases to decide what applies & what doesn't. We may disagree, but I take well-done studies as evidence even if from a different setting 8/
Second, I'm not here to tell you the science is totally clear because it's not. But most results in epidemiology not definitive. People criticized @ProfEmilyOster's prospective cohort study of schools for being non-representative and representing only a fraction of schools...9/
Look, I'm a social epidemiologist researching the #gynhealth of racially, socioeconomically, & gender-minority marginalized populations. I care A LOT about who's left out of #epitwitter data, but idea that we can't draw conclusions from unrepresentative cohort studies is wild 10/
Our field would collapse if that were true! I criticize overreliance on cohort studies that draw from non-representative samples of select volunteer populations, but that data also tell us important things. It can suffer from selection bias, limits to generalizability, etc..11/
But prospective studies are also super important for avoiding recall bias, some measurement issues, getting incorrect rates bc of missing denominators. Bc much #SARSCoV2 surveillance limited to case counts, prospective studies are vitally important for triangulation! 12/
Another critique is reliance on voluntary testing and reporting. Here is where the bias of my personal experience comes in... I have two kids in daycare and many friends with kids in daycare. In my friend group, kids in daycare are among the *MOST* tested people...13/
Bc #COVID19 symptoms in kids are so non-specific & similar to other illnesses, every slight fever or runny nose could mean being excluded from daycare for 14 days. Almost every daycare kid in my small circle has gotten a #SARSCoV2 PCR test to show daycare that COVID neg 14/
This is anecdata that is probably not true in many other settings, but it does make me less worried than some others about rampant outcome misclassification and missing hidden outbreaks in @ProfEmilyOster's data set (this is my non-scientific leaning) 15/
Third, I get frustrated with the whole framing of the the #COVID19 schools debate. Here, I wrote about one set of issues that I have with the framing of the conversation https://t.co/Pvsip6I0GA 16/
But another framing issue with the #SARSCoV2 schools science is that it's framed in terms of a very limited menus of options. One critique of @ProfEmilyOster's study is that low transmission occurring in well-resourced private schools taking lots of precautions... 17/
But to me, that's kind of the point! With enough resources and precautions, there's evidence that in-person schooling can be safe. That's important! That's the standard we should be demanding is met for ALL our students & teachers. And only way teachers will feel safe 18/
I know this is easy for me to say in my college town in a state with a Democratic governor and @ncdhhs leader who taking #COVID19 seriously. I'm not in the trenches with folks with FL, AL, UT, TX, ND right now. But we CAN demand more and better resources. 19/
Finally, I first started following @ProfEmilyOster's #COVID19 work not because of her school cohort but because of this post from her blog: https://t.co/YiyDsxG0si ...20/
This post continues to be the clearest articulation of how I think we should approach #SARSCov2 questions about in-person schooling: What are we considering & what's the alternative? If we are delaying decisionmaking until X, will anything be fundamentally different at time X?21/
Since spring, it's been clear that the #COVID19 pandemic would be 1-2 years, even under =best of scenarios. So my question has been, Will you focus on finding a safe way to have in-person schooling, or will we have schools closed for 1-2 years? 22/ https://t.co/3RhPC97qTp
And, if we choose longterm closure, are we preparing for the long-term consequences? I don't feel that I see those conversations happening. If this is our course, it's imperative that we as a country start preparing now for that long-term fall out of this course. 23/

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Joel Kotarski
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Let's track some of Donald Trump's solutions to problems: Give Hurricane victims paper towels (to sop it up), rakes to wildfire fighters (make America rake again), teaching kids to look at solar eclipses (they're too smart for that), and asking for global warming in cold winters.

This is the perfect asymptotic approach to the extremes of both Republican and Democratic rhetoric (which are both inevitably devoid of any sound logic) - you eventually get presidents like this. This is a warning call to dissolve the Republican and Democratic parties.

It seems to me our nation is now tossed between two insane extremes, bickering and arguing with each other, embodied in the Republican and Democratic parties. When you get extremist politicians who adhere fully to broken logic and rhetoric, our future is laid waste.

New parties must emerge soon. For fun, I propose a new party : "Uniters" and call the other parties "Dividers" (Republicans and Democrats). We can say that the Uniters believe in uniting people rather than dividing people.

That implies that one 'dominant' world view cannot prevail (including the illusion that we are in fact a set of states United right now) - we have to work and labor hard together to fulfill the promise the founders sought to build this country upon.
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Ok I was wrong about theHouse. 2 years of legislative gridlock = not fun. Few bills passing.

Control of the House is useless when it comes to keeping Trump from declassifying all the SpyGate docs. Or stopping an Inspector General from releasing a report.

Trump still gets control of judicial appointments so we can expect another 100 judges over the next two years. This time there’ll be no McCain or Flake playing the Maverick role with their swing vote.

That new margin in the Senate is huge if another Supreme Court seat comes open.

So from the responses I’m getting, people seem to think if Trump declassifies the Spygate stuff now, nothing happens.

Are you under the impression federal prosecutors have to wait until CONGRESS finishes an investigation and makes criminal referrals before the DOJ can act?

There’s a federal grand jury on McCabe right now. Did Congress ever finish it’s investigation and make a referral to the DOJ against him?

No.

BUT INSPECTOR GENERAL HOROWITZ DID. On finishing his McCabe leak report.

Funny how nobody remembers that.
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@djrothkopf
Pretending that voting for Trump or denying climate change or suggesting the solution to every problem is more guns is a legitimate point of view, worthy of respect is not "how America works." It is how it dies.

People in a free society are entitled to any point of view no matter how obviously wrong or outlandish or destructive provided they do not impose their views on others.

But suggesting that something ignorant or divorced from reality warrants the same kind of treatment in public debate as something based in fact or at least credible is absurd and when done on behalf of a society in public media or academic settings it is self-destructive.

We would not grant media coverage or much bandwidth at all to a group that argued that unicorns exist or that there was a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Yet views like denying climate change or basing policy decisions on sweeping, obvious lies, are just as unsound.

Somewhere, somehow, judgments must be made. Some behaviors are wrong and must be condemned. Someone must challenge lies and demand facts. Coddling people who embrace idiocies does not help them no matter how loudly they demand to be coddled.
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Charlie the Fox
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For my followers who aren't experts on middle eastern politics, here's a summary and explanation of all that stuff I've been tweeting about for the last few days - Turkey, Gare, all that stuff.

Gare is a mountain in the autonomous region of Kurdistan, in Northern Iraq (also known as Başur, or South Kurdistan). It's held by the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), a formerly Maoist group who share an ideology with the YPG. They're pretty great.

Last week the Turkish Army launched an operation in the area, bombarding it with planes and dropping troops from helicopters. They're a long way from home here, and had to rely on the bases of local collaborators to launch the attack.

The initial assault appears to have gone badly, with Turkish troops forced to retreat some way down the mountain. A second front, seemingly aimed at preventing PKK reinforcements from arriving, may have been more successful.

The full aim of the operation isn't clear. They may have hoped to cut Gare from other nearby mountains, and they may have been trying to destroy specific facilities. The only thing we're sure of is that an attempt was made to free a group of high value POWs.
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Lea Kissner
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Last talk about Securing Democracy at #enigma2021: @jackhcable speaking about "THE FULL STACK PROBLEM OF ELECTION

Let's imagine that elections use all the security measures security people have been advocating: risk-limiting audits, paper ballots, etc. Would people trust the elections more?

Jack would argue no. Most people don't understand this stuff and most of the claims people are making can't be disproven. And are massively bogus already.

Georgia did a full recount on paper ballots and it very much didn't stop people from doubting the election!

Are election security results in vain? The point of election security is to convince the loser they lost.

No! Have to focus on the whole stack, from election infrastructure to campaigns to people and mis/dis-informaton


One takeaway from the talk: the parts of the stack must work in tandem. Can't fight misinformation in a vacuum, but must build on other election security measures.
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"I really want to break into Product Management"

make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.


There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.

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They find their own way.
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Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Let’s sort it out.

[THREAD]


1/ Two nights ago, Rupert Murdoch called on Mitch McConnell, after hours. Since then, two Fox News-related Twitter accounts have not tweeted.

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AKASH
AKASH
@AKASHBH95801446
THE SCIENCE BEHIND YAJNA

Fire is, of course, one of the greatest discovery of mankind. Our control over the fire dramatically changed the entire human habits; earlier it was used to cook food, protection from animals and to stay warm.


Among the many applications of fire, one is Yajna (यज्ञ, yajña); also called as Havana (हवन) or Agnihotra (अग्निहोत्र).
Yajna is elaborately described in Yajurveda. In Yajurveda, Yajna is the greatest among all works (Karman). One can purify his /her soul by performing Yajna.

In Vedic culture, it is thought that the holy fire is the mediator between Gods and us; when the offerings are made to Yajna with chanting mantras, it directly reaches the Gods, who bless the people with rains, food, health, and good luck.

According to Apastamba Sutra, the definition of Yajna is Vedic sacrifice; an act by which we surrender something for gods e.g. grains (Anna), pulse, milk and milk product (ghee, butter, curd) fruits, plant juice (soma), etc.

As we said; Yajna is the contact medium for gods and

to seek their blessings.

There are many types of Yajna performed by Hindus for e.g.,

1. Rajsuya Yajna
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3. Chaaturmasya Yajna
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5. Purushmedha Yajna
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"I need to get better at marketing."

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"Do customers really want this? Do they care enough about this to switch to a new solution?"

☝️ this is why most of my book, @marketingdevs, is about:

1. Choosing the right market
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"If your product is remarkable, getting noticed is a lot easier." – @peldi


I was reminded of this concept again this morning while reading @pjrvs' book (Company of One):

"Sales increase when you honestly evaluate what someone needs and then teach them the value of what you're selling."


To succeed, your product has to offer an outcome that is highly desirable to a large group of customers.

The number of sales your product receives is a multiple of these two variables:

1. How big is the target market?
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(Pinterest public profile)


4. A Physician, Doctor, or hospital consultant.

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