Why #JubilantIngrevia can be next big growth story?

Here is the thread.

Pharma serving to regulated market are under stress due product price erosion. Market is comfortably giving higher multiples to step down segment in value chain i.e. raw material suppliers.

eg. Alkyl & Balaji Amine. Very few Pharma are growing well. But again, they can’t grow in isolation as the question is what makes them so special other than promoters? Stagnancy is imminent after certain size.
Hence investing in Raw material supplier (KSM) companies’ de-risk your portfolio. They don’t deal directly with FDA. End users (Pharma players) can’t afford to lose them due to regulatory issues and delays due to vendor switch.
KSM producers has multiple buyers & applications of their products hence don’t get affected if any one pharma finds price erosion. KSM business is mostly bulk scale, hence there is less risk to them from their peers, its tough for new players to reduce the cost further.
Though over the longer run prices goes down by extensive research & new processes.

Jubilant Ingravia has posted superb Q1 numbers which fetched my attention. Stock is trading below one year forward 15x PE multiples & 2x of sales.
Its super cheap for specialty chemical company with minor debt

Key points:

Super diversified product & client portfolio
Leadership position for many products in India and in the World
Last year company reduced debt by 600 Cr while lined up 900 Cr Capex for next 3 years
Company is vertically integrated, makes raw materials needed in-house. This makes them competitive. This means new players must establish similar manufacturing set up to sustain against Jubilant.
Example of Vertical integration of Ethanol value chain:
1.Molasses to Ethanol to Acetaldehyde to Pyridine derivatives to Nutritional products
2.Ethanol to acetic anhydride
3.Ethanol to ethyl acetate
4. Ethanol to acetic acid to ketene to Diketene
We need to compare Jubilant Ingrevia with companies like Alkyl amine, Laxmi Organics and Deepak nitrite to see the larger picture. Jubilant is working in Specialty chemicals, Pharma raw materials & Nutritional products.
Alkyl amine is serving Pharma while Deepak is in Specialty chemicals, all three have narrow range of products with diverse applications. Jubilant have diverse products with diverse applications. Laxmi organics has two products overlap with Jubilant i.e. Ethyl acetate and Diketene
I see striking difference in valuations between Jubilant and Alkyl amine. For the former I have extrapolated numbers like Q1 while laters I think are already at their peak of margins.
Investor presentation is well explanatory.

https://t.co/8ZAj2kgcHE

Research report by @VineetGala is nice read

https://t.co/R1pKR7CbMg

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Please add your own.

2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you


3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.

“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”

“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”

4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:

“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”

“What’s end-game here?”

“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”

5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:

“What would the best version of yourself do”?
Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.