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Presenting you the 1st Phase Opinion Poll of West Bengal Vidhan Sabha Election 2021 by Bongo Prokash. It's a joint venture by me & @ThePaulSaheb, 2 more such polls will be out in March. Please give your feedback. Constructive criticism will be appreciated trolls will be blocked.

 In Coochbehar, BJP is sweeping all the seats except Sitai. Udayan Guha losing, so is Rabindranath. Rajbongshis stay with BJP.
In Alipurduar it's a BJP landslide. BJP maintains it's Lok Sabha strength & adds with recent defection by good organization leaders from TMC.
In Jalpaiguri too BJP sweeps, TMC draws a blank.
In Darjeeling the game becomes interesting. GJM is a divided house now in alliance with TMC. Tamang & Gurung factions heavily divided. GNLF backs BJP. BJP+GNLF ahead in Siliguri, Phansidewa, Naxalbari while GJM marginally ahead in Kalimpong, Kurseong & at the moment in Darjeeling
In Uttar Dinajpur, the MGB backed by ISF can win 3/9 seats. They are - Islampur, Goalpokor, Chakulia. TMC is ahead in Itahar & Chopra. BJP is ahead in Karandighi, Hemtabad, Kaliaganj & Raiganj.
In Dakshin Dinajpur, BJP maintains it's Lok Sabha performance & can win Kushmandi, Balurghat, Tapan & Gangarampur. TMC can win Kumarganj & Harirampur.
Now we come to Maldah. In Maldah, there's heavy religious polarization among Hindus. BJP ahead in 6 seats - Habibpur, Gazole, Ratua, Maldah, English Bazar, Baishnabnagar. MGB backed by ISF dents TMC badly & can win Chanchol, Manikchak, Sujapur. TMC - Harischandrapur, Maltipur.
Murshidabad is the only district where Muslims are 60% & here the MGB backed by ISF can be game-changer. They can win 12 seats thereby effectively blocking TMC from crossing double figures. BJP is a non player here and can only win in Nabagram, Sagardighi & Murshidabad City.
From Murshidabad we come to Nadia. In Nadia TMC is the most badly faction ridden. Apart from Karimpur, Kaliganj, Nakashipara, & Chapra, they are trailing everywhere. Massive Hindu polarization and CAA is the reason that BJP wins 13/17. Nadia's sizeable Matua vote stays with BJP.
N24 Parganas has 33 seats. It has a huge Bangladeshi Hindu population & Matuas are the deciding factor here. They are staying with BJP. No confusion regarding CAA. TMC ahead only in 8 seats - Haroa, Bidhannagar, Basirhat Uttar, Deganga, Baranagar, Baduria, Amdanga, & Barasat.
In S24 Parganas TMC losing steam - 18/31 seats, BJP is ahead in 12 seats - Raidighi, Patharpratima, Kakdwip, Sagar, Behala Purba, Behala Paschim, Maheshtala, Canning Purba, Bishnupur, Gosaba, Basanti, Kultali. Dipak Halder from Diamond Harbor joined BJP losing. MGB in Bhangor.
Kolkata is at this moment a total swing case. BJP is ahead in Rashbehari, Kashipur-Belgachia, is in a winning position in Maniktala, Jorashanko, Shyampukur, Beleghata & Bhabanipur (seat of CM). TMC ahead in - Kolkata Port, Entally, Ballygunge & Chowranghee.
Now we come to Howrah. It has 16 seats. Rajib Banerjee joining BJP gave a boost but TMC still maintaining the ace position in Howrah. TMC ahead in - Howrah Madhya, Howrah Dakshin, Panchla, Uluberia East, Udaynaraynpur, Jagatballavpur, Amta, Bagnan, Uluberia Dakshin.
BJP ahead in Domjur, Bally, Howrah Uttar, Uluberia Uttar, Shyampur, Sankrail, Shibpur. Arup Roy of TMC maintains his position as the district's man Friday for TMC but the game is tight 60-40.
Now we come to the district of Hooghly having 18 seats. In Hooghly BJP is in for a landslide & TMC is absolutely in a mess vis a vis organization & elsewhere. TMC will be drawing blank. The biggest win margin will be from Singur for BJP.
In East Midnapore, with the induction of Suvendu Adhikari the game has changed for BJP. BJP currently ahead in 14 seats and only slightly behind in Panskura Purba & Paschim. Whoever stands from Nandigram will be winning by at least 52,300+ votes.
In West Midnapore, TMC ahead only in Sabang & that too because of Manish Bhuiyan's personal connect. Strong indication of Dilip Ghosh fighting from his old sit Kharagpur Sadar & winning by 20,000+ votes. Junglemahal staying firmly with BJP. Kurmis & Adivasis remain with BJP.
In Jhargram, BJP maintains it's Lok Sabha performance & sweeps 4 seat. TMC drawing a blank.
In Purulia BJP is in prime position. Maintains Lok Sabha performance and can win 8/9 seats. TMC ahead marginally in Balarampur.
In Bankura BJP is in for a landslide victory winning 12/12 seats. Saumitra Kha delivers & TMc's idea to pit his wife against him in Bankura district miserably fails. The only way TMC wins a seat is if ex TMC guy Shamaprasad Mukherjee or his henchmen gets BJP ticket.
Now we come to the granary of Bengal. In East Burdwan TMC ahead in Mangalkot, Ketugram, Memari, Purbosthali Dakshin, Bhatar. BJP winning 11 out of 17. The only thing to note here is ticket distribution. Wrong ticket distribution can result in BJP getting below 10.
In the land of Coal, BJP maintains it's stern position. TMC is ahead in Jamuria. Malay Ghotok, Law Minister seems to be losing from Asansol Uttar. Jiten Tiwari losing in Pandaveswar.
In Birbhum, or the Wild West of West Bengal, in reality "Khela Hobe". Anubroto Mondol fails to deliver. TMC - 5/11 but BJP giving tough fight with 6/11. TMC leading in Labpur, Hansan, Nalhati, Murarai & Rampurhat. BJP in Suri, Bolpur, Dubrajpur, Saithia, Nanor & Mayureshwar.

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