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You gotta think about this one carefully!
Imagine you go to the doctor and get tested for a rare disease (only 1 in 10,000 people get it.)
The test is 99% effective in detecting both sick and healthy people.
Your test comes back positive.
Are you really sick? Explain below 👇
The most complete answer from every reply so far is from Dr. Lena. Thanks for taking the time and going through
You can get the answer using Bayes' theorem, but let's try to come up with it in a different —maybe more intuitive— way.
👇
Here is what we know:
- Out of 10,000 people, 1 is sick
- Out of 100 sick people, 99 test positive
- Out of 100 healthy people, 99 test negative
Assuming 1 million people take the test (including you):
- 100 of them are sick
- 999,900 of them are healthy
👇
Let's now test both groups, starting with the 100 people sick:
▫️ 99 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as sick (99%)
▫️ 1 of them is going to be diagnosed (incorrectly) as healthy (1%)
👇
Imagine you go to the doctor and get tested for a rare disease (only 1 in 10,000 people get it.)
The test is 99% effective in detecting both sick and healthy people.
Your test comes back positive.
Are you really sick? Explain below 👇
The most complete answer from every reply so far is from Dr. Lena. Thanks for taking the time and going through
Really doesn\u2019t fit well in a tweet. pic.twitter.com/xN0pAyniFS
— Dr. Lena Sugar \U0001f3f3\ufe0f\u200d\U0001f308\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1ef\U0001f1f5 (@_jvs) February 18, 2021
You can get the answer using Bayes' theorem, but let's try to come up with it in a different —maybe more intuitive— way.
👇
Here is what we know:
- Out of 10,000 people, 1 is sick
- Out of 100 sick people, 99 test positive
- Out of 100 healthy people, 99 test negative
Assuming 1 million people take the test (including you):
- 100 of them are sick
- 999,900 of them are healthy
👇
Let's now test both groups, starting with the 100 people sick:
▫️ 99 of them will be diagnosed (correctly) as sick (99%)
▫️ 1 of them is going to be diagnosed (incorrectly) as healthy (1%)
👇
@SMILEWithmeNGO Hello @SMILEWithmeNGO I am glad to be here. Thank you for having me.
A very big welcome to everyone joining today’s conversation. Our guest today needs no introduction especially in the sphere of cancer control and advocacy. Welcome @runciecwc
#CheatCervicalCancer
@runciecwc Q1: So Runcie @runciecwc, we see all the amazing work you do as an advocate.
Can you share with us some of the work that you have been doing in cancer control in Nigeria?
#CheatCervicalCancer
@runciecwc That’s amazing. Your work speaks for you. Thanks for all you do.
Q2: What is this @WHO Global Strategy to accelerate the Elimination of CervicalCancer? Can you elaborate on it?
#CheatCervicalCancer
@runciecwc @WHO Q3: In your experience, so far what are the greatest challenges you have identified with cancer control in Nigeria?
#CheatCervicalCancer.
@runciecwc @WHO Q4: Interestingly, we have seen that your organization is part of the Coalition of CSOs against Cervical Cancer in Nigeria, @CervicalCancerN, what is the goal of this Coalition? #CheatCervicalCancer
A very big welcome to everyone joining today’s conversation. Our guest today needs no introduction especially in the sphere of cancer control and advocacy. Welcome @runciecwc
#CheatCervicalCancer
Our First guest is Runcie Chidebe @runciecwc.
— Smile With Me (#CheatCervicalCancer) (@SMILEWithmeNGO) January 31, 2021
He is a patient advocate and global health expert. He is the ED of @projectpinkblue, a cancer nonprofit focused on cancer control in Nigeria. He is engaged in supporting people battling with cancer, fundraising for indigent patients, pic.twitter.com/6tKYkq4h4F
@runciecwc Q1: So Runcie @runciecwc, we see all the amazing work you do as an advocate.
Can you share with us some of the work that you have been doing in cancer control in Nigeria?
#CheatCervicalCancer
@runciecwc That’s amazing. Your work speaks for you. Thanks for all you do.
Q2: What is this @WHO Global Strategy to accelerate the Elimination of CervicalCancer? Can you elaborate on it?
#CheatCervicalCancer
@runciecwc @WHO Q3: In your experience, so far what are the greatest challenges you have identified with cancer control in Nigeria?
#CheatCervicalCancer.
@runciecwc @WHO Q4: Interestingly, we have seen that your organization is part of the Coalition of CSOs against Cervical Cancer in Nigeria, @CervicalCancerN, what is the goal of this Coalition? #CheatCervicalCancer
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https://t.co/FBfXhUrH5d
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...we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic & well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination.
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Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms—both externally and within the host.
https://t.co/FBfXhUrH5d
Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described.
...we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic & well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination.
Biofilms can also enhance virion viability in extracellular environments, such as on fomites and in aquatic sediments, allowing viral persistence and dissemination.