ICYMI, public health officials fear community transmission of B.1.1.7 (the "UK variant") is underway in Ontario.

I'll dissect each piece of worrying news from this story.

1. Simcoe Muskoka has so far reported 3 positive tests in individuals *with no known links* to the massive B.1.1.7 outbreak at Roberta Place LTC.

Two of those are linked to separate outbreaks of their own (a different LTC and a mental health hospital). Testing underway.
2. Of the 225 cases at Roberta Place, 100+ are confirmed or preliminary + for B.1.1.7.

42 household contacts of ppl linked to the outbreak are also COVID+. Public health unit is worried about keeping cases (which are all likely B.1.1.7) from rippling further into the community.
3. A case in Kingston area who tested positive for COVID "several weeks ago" was just discovered to be B.1.1.7. That person travelled to Simcoe Muskoka, but had not travelled internationally, according to the local health unit.

https://t.co/81h7PtyNx2
4. Overall, Public Health Ontario counts 47 B.1.1.7 cases as of yesterday -- these are only the ones confirmed thru full genome sequencing. Preliminary screening tests not included (yesterday's 99 in Simcoe Muskoka, for example).

Here's a breakdown by health unit courtesy PHO:
Side note: My story from 3 days ago (three years in COVID time) on why scientists say we more genomic sequencing and screening, faster turnaround, and better policies to stifle the spread of extra-contagious variants like B.1.1.7:

https://t.co/87Czw5uYRD )
5. Simcoe Muskoka's top public health official Dr. Charles Gardner, who is also on the province's public health measures table, said:

“If it isn’t spreading readily in our community now, it may very well do so in the near future."

@BogochIsaac: "The horse is out of the barn."
Gardner warned B.1.1.7 could quickly overwhelm dropping case numbers in Ontario, making school re-opening difficult & undermining vaccination efforts (especially combined with vaccine supply shortages).

So what do we do now?
The experts I have spoken to agree with this @bruce_arthur column: no one is *opposed* to border measures, but they will not stop the spread of B.1.1.7 alone. Too late for that.

Bogoch: “There’s no magic, right? We know how to control this."

https://t.co/0qSObJike5
My colleague @JacquesGallant reported on the possibility of restricting travel between provinces.

Dr. Gardner also spoke about restricting travel *inside* the province, between communities -- which he says would be controversial but worked in Australia.

https://t.co/0eViOe7ifT
We will likely get more positive tests for variants of concern in the coming days as the results of a PHO point-prevalence study trickle in: ALL ~2,500 COVID positive test samples from Jan 20 are being screened + sequenced for variants of concern.

Stay tuned.
Okay well it's been 10 minutes since I posted this, so obviously I already have two updates to report:

- Now 85 secondary contacts from Roberta Place (up from the 42). h/t @LapointeShaw
- Nine of York Region's 15 B.1.1.7 cases acquired in community:

https://t.co/tZWTewVFaR

More from Health

this simple, counter narrative fact keeps cropping up all over the world.

hospital and ICU utilization has been and remains low this year.

it's terribly curious that so few of these monitoring tools provide historical baselines.

getting them is like pulling teeth.


we might think of this as an oversight until you see stuff like this:

this woman was arrested for filming and sharing the fact that their are empty hospitals in the UK.

that's full blown soviet. what possible honest purpose does that

this is the action of a police state and a propaganda ministry, not a well intentioned government and a public heath agency.

"we cannot let people see the truth for fear they might base their actions on real facts" is not much of a mantra for just governance.


90% full ICU sounds scary until you realize that 90-100% full is normal in flu season.

staffed ICU beds are expensive to leave empty. it's like flying with 15% of the plane empty. hospitals don't do that.

and all US hospitals are mandated to be able to flex to 120% ICU.

the US is currently at historically low ICU utilization for this time of year.

61% is "you're all going to go out of business" territory as is 66% full hospital use.

can you blame them for mining CARES act money? they'll die without it.

You May Also Like