ICYMI, public health officials fear community transmission of B.1.1.7 (the "UK variant") is underway in Ontario.

I'll dissect each piece of worrying news from this story.

1. Simcoe Muskoka has so far reported 3 positive tests in individuals *with no known links* to the massive B.1.1.7 outbreak at Roberta Place LTC.

Two of those are linked to separate outbreaks of their own (a different LTC and a mental health hospital). Testing underway.
2. Of the 225 cases at Roberta Place, 100+ are confirmed or preliminary + for B.1.1.7.

42 household contacts of ppl linked to the outbreak are also COVID+. Public health unit is worried about keeping cases (which are all likely B.1.1.7) from rippling further into the community.
3. A case in Kingston area who tested positive for COVID "several weeks ago" was just discovered to be B.1.1.7. That person travelled to Simcoe Muskoka, but had not travelled internationally, according to the local health unit.

https://t.co/81h7PtyNx2
4. Overall, Public Health Ontario counts 47 B.1.1.7 cases as of yesterday -- these are only the ones confirmed thru full genome sequencing. Preliminary screening tests not included (yesterday's 99 in Simcoe Muskoka, for example).

Here's a breakdown by health unit courtesy PHO:
Side note: My story from 3 days ago (three years in COVID time) on why scientists say we more genomic sequencing and screening, faster turnaround, and better policies to stifle the spread of extra-contagious variants like B.1.1.7:

https://t.co/87Czw5uYRD )
5. Simcoe Muskoka's top public health official Dr. Charles Gardner, who is also on the province's public health measures table, said:

“If it isn’t spreading readily in our community now, it may very well do so in the near future."

@BogochIsaac: "The horse is out of the barn."
Gardner warned B.1.1.7 could quickly overwhelm dropping case numbers in Ontario, making school re-opening difficult & undermining vaccination efforts (especially combined with vaccine supply shortages).

So what do we do now?
The experts I have spoken to agree with this @bruce_arthur column: no one is *opposed* to border measures, but they will not stop the spread of B.1.1.7 alone. Too late for that.

Bogoch: “There’s no magic, right? We know how to control this."

https://t.co/0qSObJike5
My colleague @JacquesGallant reported on the possibility of restricting travel between provinces.

Dr. Gardner also spoke about restricting travel *inside* the province, between communities -- which he says would be controversial but worked in Australia.

https://t.co/0eViOe7ifT
We will likely get more positive tests for variants of concern in the coming days as the results of a PHO point-prevalence study trickle in: ALL ~2,500 COVID positive test samples from Jan 20 are being screened + sequenced for variants of concern.

Stay tuned.
Okay well it's been 10 minutes since I posted this, so obviously I already have two updates to report:

- Now 85 secondary contacts from Roberta Place (up from the 42). h/t @LapointeShaw
- Nine of York Region's 15 B.1.1.7 cases acquired in community:

https://t.co/tZWTewVFaR

More from Health

1/
Remember woman who tuk multiple @SriSriTattva products 4 range of problems frm diabetes 2 gas 2 liver disease & developed liver failure, listed for liver transplant?
Here is original thread:
https://t.co/PXxI1Slyv2
23 samples, Analysis results
#MedTwitter #livertwitter


2/
Before I go into results, I must say this was overwhelming. There was SO MUCH the lab identified, impossible to put everything here. So I made a summary. At the end of this thread, I have linked a full analysis described in Excel format. Some results were VERY concerning

3/
How did we analyse?
Here R links 2 methods
They R high end, done under strict protocols
Frm Ministry of Forest, Environment, Climate / NABL approvd Lab
ICP-OES https://t.co/O1CLhqVQAu
GC MSMS https://t.co/zRJoXyWQIr
FTIR https://t.co/goAembQ08p
Here is list V analysed 👇


4/
Sample names written on top (each column).
First 5 samples: C what we identified in #Ayurveda #medicines
Antibiotics
Steroids (anabolic/synthetic)
#NARCOTICS - LSD, Morphine
Blood thinners (possible reason Y bleeding tests were off the roof in the patient)
Heavy metals!


5/
Next 5 samples (total 10 now)
Mercury is clear winner. Almost all samples
See controlled substances - Butyrolactones https://t.co/CPz0FwPEOm, methylamine https://t.co/OZnXY7U9UQ
Alcohols, industrial solvents
Rare metals - cobalt, lithium
Again lots of blood thinners
#Ayush
Before we get too far into 2021, I thought I’d write a thread recapping some of the research that came out of my lab in 2020. Most of this work was led by my talented team of graduate students, Kerrianne Morrison, @kmdebrabander, and @DesiRJones.

Back in January, a news story was published about Kerrianne’s study showing improved social interaction outcomes for autistic adults when paired with another autistic partner.

A detailed thread about the study and a link to the paper can be found here (feel free to DM me your email address if you’d like a copy of the full paper for this study or any of our studies):


Another paper published early in 2020 (it appeared a few months earlier online) showed that traditional standalone tasks of social cognition are less predictive of functional and social skills among autistic adults than commonly assumed in autism research.


Next, @kmdebrabander led and published an innovative study about how well autistic and non-autistic adults can predict their own cognitive and social cognitive performance.
this simple, counter narrative fact keeps cropping up all over the world.

hospital and ICU utilization has been and remains low this year.

it's terribly curious that so few of these monitoring tools provide historical baselines.

getting them is like pulling teeth.


we might think of this as an oversight until you see stuff like this:

this woman was arrested for filming and sharing the fact that their are empty hospitals in the UK.

that's full blown soviet. what possible honest purpose does that

this is the action of a police state and a propaganda ministry, not a well intentioned government and a public heath agency.

"we cannot let people see the truth for fear they might base their actions on real facts" is not much of a mantra for just governance.


90% full ICU sounds scary until you realize that 90-100% full is normal in flu season.

staffed ICU beds are expensive to leave empty. it's like flying with 15% of the plane empty. hospitals don't do that.

and all US hospitals are mandated to be able to flex to 120% ICU.

the US is currently at historically low ICU utilization for this time of year.

61% is "you're all going to go out of business" territory as is 66% full hospital use.

can you blame them for mining CARES act money? they'll die without it.
I think @SamAdlerBell in his quest to be the contrarian on Fauci gets several things wrong here. 1/


First, the failure last year actually was driven by the White House, the #Trump inner circle. Watch what's happening now, the US' scientific and public health infrastructure is creaking back to life. 2/

I think Sam underestimates the decimation of many of our health agencies over the past four years and the establishment of ideological control over them during the pandemic. 3/

I also am puzzled why Tony gets the blame for not speaking up, etc. Robert Redfield, Brett Giroir, Deb Birx, Jerome Adams, Alex Azar all could have done the same. 4/

Several of these people Bob Redfield, Brett Giroir, Alex Azar were led by craven ambition, Jerome Adams by cowardice, but I do think Deb Birx and Tony tried as institutionalists, insiders to make a difference. 5/

You May Also Like

**Thread on Bravery of Sikhs**
(I am forced to do this due to continuous hounding of Sikh Extremists since yesterday)

Rani Jindan Kaur, wife of Maharaja Ranjit Singh had illegitimate relations with Lal Singh (PM of Ranjit Singh). Along with Lal Singh, she attacked Jammu, burnt - https://t.co/EfjAq59AyI


Hindu villages of Jasrota, caused rebellion in Jammu, attacked Kishtwar.

Ancestors of Raja Ranjit Singh, The Sansi Tribe used to give daughters as concubines to Jahangir.


The Ludhiana Political Agency (Later NW Fronties Prov) was formed by less than 4000 British soldiers who advanced from Delhi and reached Ludhiana, receiving submissions of all sikh chiefs along the way. The submission of the troops of Raja of Lahore (Ranjit Singh) at Ambala.

Dabistan a contemporary book on Sikh History tells us that Guru Hargobind broke Naina devi Idol Same source describes Guru Hargobind serving a eunuch
YarKhan. (ref was proudly shared by a sikh on twitter)
Gobind Singh followed Bahadur Shah to Deccan to fight for him.


In Zafarnama, Guru Gobind Singh states that the reason he was in conflict with the Hill Rajas was that while they were worshiping idols, while he was an idol-breaker.

And idiot Hindus place him along Maharana, Prithviraj and Shivaji as saviours of Dharma.