While covering a Nov. 10 protest led by @copsoutofNU, I spoke to an Evanston resident who experienced an easy relationship between EPD and Evanston residents. He put NIPAS in a different category, saying they appeared "dangerous." 🧵:

I'll not leave Riddlersworld. But I'll redefine the notion of riddler. A riddler is a person who doesn't know about specific dates and even about dates in general such as the year things will happen. He only knows, in general, some of the events that will take place,... 1/*

a kind of general history, a plot. In this sense continuing in Riddlersworld goes through an approach of minimums, taking riddlers as what gives an outline of some of the events that could happen at an always unknown date. 2/*

Sure, riddlers intend to convey the idea that they do know the dates, or at least the year, but they don’t know them. 3/*

Take 2020 as an example. At this point of the year you can make so many ad hoc statements as you like, but guys, 2020 clearly meant year 2020. 2020 was the year of the visible "outcomes". 4/*

On November 4, 2019 Mr Pool suggested that outcome of action Plan B is what you have been waiting = price increase. It should have happened in November and December 2020, as Plan B ended on November 7, so the outcome should be those months. 5/*

THREAD ON IRONFLY

These days the most preferred strategy for option sellers due to improved margins is IRONFLY. It's essentially a short straddle with long strangle. Long strangle acting as 'WINGS', which help in capping the unlimited risk associated with a short straddle.(1/n)

You can also view the position as a combination of Cal & Put credit spreads, if that makes it more easy for you.

There are 3 important things to understand while trading this strategy:

1) Initial size of the Wings
2) Risk Management
3) Adjustments

(2/n)

Since we are selling an ATM straddle, the 1st question is how far our wings should be? Ideally i sell .50 delta straddle & buy .20 or .10 OTM strangle, depending on my view on volatility. So the distance of wings depends on the IV setup. Higher the IVs, greater the distance.(3/n)

If you don't understand greeks, then ideally with 30 days to expiry (dte), wings should be around 300pts either side. If your trading in weekly then it should be not more than 200pts. Higher the premiums, higher the distance as we have more cushion of theta. (4/n)

It is important to understand that we need to reduce the distance of wings with time so as to manage our RISK in gap openings or sudden volatile move. So for eg. if you started with 300pt wings with 30dte, the wings wouldn't give the same protection when there is 7dte. (5/n)

I am done giving this doctor or team grace. I started with "We are tremendously grateful for all you are doing." He seemed irritated to speak to us. Literally I asked, "What is the likelihood our mom will die on current support, in the next 24 hours, so we can plan travel?"

He hammered us with how severe this was and that was. Yes, that is why I am asking the question. "We are asking you to be a thought partner so we can make responsible decisions as the family." I had had pre-conversations with doctor friends to understand the numbers and prognosis

He said "It would be illegal for me to tell you that she won't die, then she dies." Yes, that is why I said LIKELIHOOD - critical care docs deal in likelihoods. It so frustrating to be on this side and not get a fraction of the standard that I have been held to and hold myself to

Then I made the error of saying, "I'm a pediatrician, I literally do this work on family-centered, compassionate care." to which the charge nurse answered, "It is not the work we do. We keep people alive." End of life care IS your job. Planning IS your job. It's not just numbers

Compassion is not only a pediatric thing while critical care/end of life can proudly lack it. I've had more end of life conversations than I want to remember. My mom is not numbers. She is a human being. I am modulating my voice, complimenting you, leveraging my network.