#SuvenLife – Niche R&D play..very high risk and very high reward…key is right allocation…

Jazz Pharma was quoting around $0.5 in 2009, today its $150 and Mcap of $8.5 Bn on Nasdaq..almost 300x in 11 years. 80% of its total sales ($2.1 Bn) come from single drug Xyrem.

#IBullreal results have no significance at this point. Key points to understand –

Debt reduction – Ibulllreal will be debt free at the time of merger with 650 cr coming from Mr Gehlot and 580 crs from land sale to Elan group. Embassy will have 3000 crs debt out of which 1500 cr

will be reduced through QIP and rest 1500 crs will come from collections next year. So merged entity will be zero debt company in FY23

Sales potential – Launched + planned projects have 18000 cr sales potential with 3400 crs of near completed inventory. Pending cost is 3900 cr

and sold receivables is 4224 crs. That means 9900 crs of cashflow to come in next few years from these projects. In addition, it is holding land bank of 3353 acres and 350 acres (42.5 Mn) for commercial development with potential annual rental of 4300 crs.

JV/JDA/DM potential – With solid track record and backing of institutional investors, Embassy can acquire multiple large value projects under JV/JDA/DM model which enhance its RoCE. One such project is Embassy Bayview in Juhu with net surplus of 500 crs (quite big)..

#Lauruslabs new website for CDMO
https://t.co/8GsCECr9Wq

and biologicals
https://t.co/pBr3GKEi9G

Both are multiyear themes...

#Suven – Journey of my first 50 bagger…

I bought #Suven first in Apr 2013 around Rs 20…today after almost 7.5 years, its Rs 1000 (Suven pharma 920 adjusted for bonus + Suven Life 80)..CAGR of almost 68% for 7.5 years. I am fortunate to hold it throughout the journey and

1/n

add on multiple occasions on way up. Like to share my experience in this thread for everyone’s benefit..

First time I bought because I like the management focus on R&D. It had chosen the most difficult therapeutic area in pharma which is CNS and it was investing the cash

2/n

flow it used to earn from CRAMS. It also used to write off all the R&D expenses in the P&L instead of capitalizing it in BS. That gave me lot of comfort about management quality.

I kept on adding as funds keep coming. I remember giving a public presentation on Suven in

3/n

Mumbai at one analyst meet in Nov 2017 when it was trading at Rs 160. There was a huge call option embedded at that time in the form of SUVN-502. That would have been the blockbuster molecule if succeeded with market potential of $10 Bn plus..result was due in Dec 2019,

4/n

I loaded around 250-300 knowing the value of CRAMS business itself is more than 300.

SUVN-502 failed in phase-II trials, stock was down 15% from 300 to 250 in a single day, I added heavily. it was largest allocation in my portfolio because I knew the value of CRAMS business

5/n

#chemicals surpassed #FMCG in valuations.. valuation range is 60x - 100x now. Chemicals will have much higher growth rate than FMCG for next 10 yrs

#Suvenlife USFDA green signal for phase 3 is big thing but still it remains binary story, but now two important events to watch
1 - Narcolepsy molecule phase 2 results - should be out by Dec 22
2 - SUV-502 phase 3 results - 2024

Each event has potential to make it $Bn company

1⃣
At the moment #POTUS is sitting on a stack of #Trump cards, he's just waiting to unleash a royal flush!
He has court cases that will go to #SCOTUS and thanks to the Texas case, he's now aware how to file them properly under article 3 not 2, so SCOTUS will be forced to listen.

2⃣
#Trump now has the #DNI report. #Barr stepped down and can now be a witness, he did his job. #Durham is special counsel and can prosecute, in any state.
He’s letting civil, criminal and federal courts fail to handle the situation properly so he can use military tribunals.

3⃣
#Trump has ALL the data from the #NSA, the #Kraken supercomputer, the #Alice #supercomputer, and likely many more computers, unknown to us.
He has the dueling electors from 7 state legislatures. He has VP #Pence, as the final arbiter of which ballots to accept.

4⃣
#Trump has the #InsurrectionAct, the #NDAA, the national emergency, the 14th amendment, the 2018 executive order, the 2017 very first EO, the #Patriot Act, the #FISA warrants, the Declassification of everything, people swearing affidavits by the 1000s.

5⃣
#Trump has all the statistical data being analyzed along with the videos, emails, phone calls and bank transfer statements showing the coordination of the #coup d'etat.
He has #RICO and he has the #CrimesAgainstHumanity videos. #Wikileaks just dropped extensive information

@cain_nate My friend Nate Cain and I have worked hundreds of hours with various politicians and legal groups trying to explain the election laws and how they fit together. There are many misperceptions of what happened during this election and what it means.

Simply put, our election laws are an intricate tapestry designed to ensure accuracy and prevent fraud. They work together like parts of a car. But when certain parts fail, the car is just a hunk of scrap iron and plastic. In this case critical parts failed.
2/

You do not have to prove fraud or intent, you just have to show that the election officials were unable to conduct an election that met the law and relevant certification requirements. In this case, the election does not come close to meeting accuracy requirements.
3/

These specifications are found deep in laws like FISMA, HAVA, and state adoptions of EAC guidance. 1 ballot error out of 125,000 or 1 position read error out of 500,000. Just look at the discrepancies between incoming ballot counts and total votes, the system fails.
4/

It is worse in the the swing states in Democrat strongholds but it is bad in many places. You add the apparent losses of ballots through the Mail and error rates in the ‘system’ are staggering. Why do we have these rules? Sure it is to prevent fraud, but......
5/

8 rules the top play by that those at the bottom should adopt.

— Thread
(requested by followers)

1. Leverage

Most poor people don't leverage. Trying to get everything done yourself will limit you to only how much you can do.

Get more hands working for you, and find a way to pay or show them what's in it for them.

2. Trust

When doing business, poor people would require collateral from strangers, but excuse those close to them because they *trust* them.

That's how you get scammed.

The unspoken rule is to know your safety net whenever you're not taking collateral.

Never need to trust.

3. Morality

Never seen a very successful businessman say "This is not a good thing, it's evil."

It's either good for business or bad for business. Its either effective or ineffective.

Morality will only limit you.

4. Reciprocity

Expecting someone to help you because you helped them in the past is ludicrous.

If you're no longer useful to them, people have no reason to help you.

"Whenever you see water flowing upstream it means someone it repaying a kindness."

— 48 Laws Of Power