Today’s GDP release, and in particular how the economy has adapted, a thread.👇

After 6 months of growth, the economy started shrinking again in November as tighter restrictions were in place. (Though there were variations across Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.) (1/n)
The economy shrank by 2.6% in November. In normal times this would be a significant downturn, but it is much smaller than the falls seen with the first restrictions in the spring: April GDP fell by around 20%. In that sense it is good news. But why the smaller fall? (2/n)
Firstly, some industries remain very depressed. Airlines (air transport in the chart) for example, were operating at very low levels in October so there wasn’t much further for their output to fall. This is different from the picture in Mar/Apr. (3/n)
The same is true, though perhaps less pronounced, for bars/restaurants and other parts of the service sector. (4/n)
Secondly, some sections of the economy have undergone a structural shift that has allowed them to continue to meet demand/produce output. Perhaps the best example is in retail. Overall sales in November were higher than pre-pandemic despite the restrictions. (5/n)
This is due, in part, to the shift online, which allowed sales to continue when shops were shut. These structural shifts create winners (on-line retailers) and losers (high-street), so a positive overall story can hide some significant distress for some businesses. (6/n)
There are also knock-on effects of this move on-line, with courier/postal services seeing growth through the pandemic. (7/n)
And there have been wider changes: food retailers have gained at the expenses of restaurants, and home improvement shops have benefited as consumers appeared to shift expenditure from other activities such as holidays and travel. (8/n)
Whether these changes are permanent or temporary, we will have to wait to see. (9/n)
Thirdly, individual industries (and businesses) have become more resilient to the restrictions. We saw big falls in construction during the first set of national restrictions, but continued growth during the November restrictions. (10/n)
This is likely due to social distancing in workplaces, etc. that have allowed operations to continue. (11/n)
Overall, the economic impacts are smaller this time. But we should not lose sight of the fact that the economy has still taken a large hit from the pandemic, and beneath the surface there are hugely different experiences for different sectors, businesses and people. (ENDS)

More from Economy

I really think people have a very short-sighted view of the city and its key role in decades to come for the economy of 🇨🇳. Every so often, people have a handful of misconceptions about the city's future because they lack of basics in strategy 👇


https://t.co/6wuRzXGkYZ The West propaganda seems to make people think we are cracking down on 🇭🇰 people because we no longer need them and we will inevitably suppress their rights. Every now and then, I talk with people in 🇭🇰 who think the Great Firewall will extend to 🇭🇰

🇺🇸-led liberal order is very strong to come across 🇭🇰 people and make them believe what they want. Brainwashed people don't think rationally and fall for the lies and propaganda. This guy is one among so many others I met in 🇭🇰 who told me the same thing, that the city is doomed

They couldn't be more ignorant ! Unfortunately they will end up leaving the city and missing out on incredible opportunities... But they don't know that nothing will eventually change after 2047 ? 🙃Let me explain you why

I bet even after 2047 🇭🇰 will still enjoy a high degree of autonomy and freedoms that its mainland counterpart can’t enjoy : an independent legal and financial system, English as one of the official language, an access to the West internet, its traditional medias, etc.

You May Also Like

Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"


The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.