Thread on the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact:

1. In August, 1939, Stalin called on the UK and France to form an anti-fascist alliance. It was only after they rejected this proposal that the USSR signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact to buy time in order to prepare for the war.

2. Getting sick and tired of gentrified "leftists" claiming that Stalin and Hitler "divided up Poland." What it meant was that either side crossing the line of the rivers Narev, Vistula and San would be seen as an invasion of the other country.
3. By the time the USSR entered Poland, the Polish government was already in exile and thus there was no Polish state. The Red Army's entry into Poland was therefore not an invasion.
4. Furthermore, the Polish government-in-exile declared war on Germany when it invaded Poland, but did not declare war on the Soviet Union when the Red Army entered. Additionally, the Polish Army was ordered to not fight the Soviets.
5. France had a mutual defense treaty with Poland, but it did not declare war on the Soviet Union. Another funny thing that people seem to forget is that prior to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, a bunch of countries signed similar agreements with the Germany: UK, France, POLAND, etc
6. To quote Mao on this topic: "When Poland became the burning question in the spring and summer of this year and it was touch-and-go whether world war would break out,
7. the Soviet Union negotiated with Britain and France for over four months, despite Chamberlain's and Daladier's complete lack of sincerity, in an endeavour to conclude a treaty of mutual assistance to prevent the outbreak of war.
8. But all these efforts were blocked by the imperialist policy of the British and French governments, a policy of conniving at, instigating and spreading war, so that eventually the cause of world peace was thwarted and the imperialist world war broke out.
9. The governments of Britain, the United States and France had no genuine desire to prevent this war; on the contrary, they helped to bring it about.
10. Their refusal to come to terms with the Soviet Union and conclude a really effective treaty of mutual assistance based on equality and reciprocity proved that they wanted not peace but war."
11. "It was in these circumstances, and when Germany agreed to stop her anti-Soviet activities, abandon the Agreement Against the Communist International and recognize the inviolability of the Soviet frontiers, that the Soviet-German non-aggression treaty was concluded.
12. The plan of Britain, the United States and France was to egg Germany on to attack the Soviet Union, so that they themselves, "sitting on top of the mountain to watch the tigers fight", could come down and take over after the Soviet Union and Germany had worn each other out.
13. The Soviet-German non-aggression treaty smashed this plot."

Source: https://t.co/NrHEGDRma2

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The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.


Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.

(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)

Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.

The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."

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