Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet
While my time investing in crypto and previously playing poker has gotten me used to experiencing large daily personal net worth volatility, it's never a pleasant experience
Short thread (by my standards...) with some ramblings that help me get through it 👇
Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet
Unlike early stage tech, crypto investors will have liquidity, i.e. the possibility, and thus the temptation, to sell
This is both a blessing and a curse
Crypto, as early stage tech, is much riskier than established public companies and thus even higher vol too
However, one should not let the liquidity take advantage of us
However, the fundamentals themselves rarely change that much in such short periods of time and so neither should one's investments
Occasionally they may prompt a reevaluation of the thesis, but if one is investing based on fundamentals this should imo be rare
Beware of the rationalisations for selling that spring up during downturns
If anything, it should happen more during upturns as the investment becomes more expensive and therefore riskier
For most of us working + investing in the space, our net worths are already extremely correlated to crypto prices
More from Crypto
I'm sure someone else has explained this, but it is just so cool and I want to explain how this works.
So Curve is awesome for swaps between similar assets, right? The fact that they trade very close to each other is a key part about how Curve works, using it's custom swap invariant function.
That's step 1
Step 2 is that Synthetix is awesome for creating "synthetic assets" (aka synths) which are assets that trade like other assets, that are backed by another, entirely different asset. Basically, a plastic banana that I can buy and sell like a real banana.
Synthetix has a feature that lets you swap between any two synths with zero slippage and a flat fee. That's because it is simply converting the sythentic asset into another synthetic asset, the backing for the synth doesn't change it just uses a different price oracle now.
This is important. Absolutely no slippage, at any size
Swap $1m sUSD for $1m sBTC? flat 0.3% fee
Swap $10m sUSD for $10m sBTC? flat 0.3% fee
swap $100m sUSD for $100m sBTC? Well, there isn't that many synths in Curve, yet but you get the point. The only limit is the pool depth
— Andre Cronje (@AndreCronjeTech) January 15, 2021
So Curve is awesome for swaps between similar assets, right? The fact that they trade very close to each other is a key part about how Curve works, using it's custom swap invariant function.
That's step 1
Step 2 is that Synthetix is awesome for creating "synthetic assets" (aka synths) which are assets that trade like other assets, that are backed by another, entirely different asset. Basically, a plastic banana that I can buy and sell like a real banana.
Synthetix has a feature that lets you swap between any two synths with zero slippage and a flat fee. That's because it is simply converting the sythentic asset into another synthetic asset, the backing for the synth doesn't change it just uses a different price oracle now.
This is important. Absolutely no slippage, at any size
Swap $1m sUSD for $1m sBTC? flat 0.3% fee
Swap $10m sUSD for $10m sBTC? flat 0.3% fee
swap $100m sUSD for $100m sBTC? Well, there isn't that many synths in Curve, yet but you get the point. The only limit is the pool depth
Quick Thread on #Altcoins/ #Altseason
Step 1: $BTC has a huge correction. Every range starts with either a pump (or dump) and then follows with a dump (or pump). In this case, #Bitcoin pumped and is now pulling back. This is
Step 2: $BTC ranges big once it finds a bottom. This will allow it to reaccumulate for a big summer run in 2021. This is HEALTHY IMO.
Step 3: Once $BTC finds a bottom and starts to grind up again, I expect $ALTS to do very very well in both alt/usd and alt/btc pairs. ALTSZN is almost always characterized by strong alt/btc pairs moving- I've already accumulated most and have done my final buying today and more.
$BTC.D typically has a very nice time during this time of the year. I was off on December prediction bc I thought $BTC was going to pull back by then but oh well! #Altcoins will start their pumping time VERY soon now.
More information on what #Altseason is and $ALTS market
Step 1: $BTC has a huge correction. Every range starts with either a pump (or dump) and then follows with a dump (or pump). In this case, #Bitcoin pumped and is now pulling back. This is
If you want #Altseason, you should want $BTC to make a decent sized pullback. Ranges start after huge moves in both directions, IMO we need to see some cooling off before the ranging starts. Plz give 26k. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/yLG9xSrbKz
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) January 3, 2021
Step 2: $BTC ranges big once it finds a bottom. This will allow it to reaccumulate for a big summer run in 2021. This is HEALTHY IMO.
Step 3: Once $BTC finds a bottom and starts to grind up again, I expect $ALTS to do very very well in both alt/usd and alt/btc pairs. ALTSZN is almost always characterized by strong alt/btc pairs moving- I've already accumulated most and have done my final buying today and more.
$BTC.D typically has a very nice time during this time of the year. I was off on December prediction bc I thought $BTC was going to pull back by then but oh well! #Altcoins will start their pumping time VERY soon now.
$BTC.D: This is the chart for inverse #Bitcoin Dominance, the macro chart you need to check out for #Altcoins and when they have their runs. Still potentially more pain to go for $ALTS but I'm thinking that they will turn around strong when $BTC is done w. its run. pic.twitter.com/Q8ewTSRywp
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) December 27, 2020
More information on what #Altseason is and $ALTS market
Big #Altcoin thread for $ALTS: Where are we at in the cycle, how long do we have, is this #ALTSEASON, what are the relationships like, all of that. $BTC #Bitcoin $ETH $LINK #Altcoins pic.twitter.com/nwVjgZu4fw
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) November 9, 2020
You may be wondering why @bristoliver rather cryptically RT’d a chart that I posted last night. The answer is not just that he loves quadratic fits on log axes, but that this chart may –and I stress may– hint at a vaccine effect amongst the over 80s THREAD
WARNING: this is a long thread, and it’s a bit of a roller-coaster. We find some apparently strong patterns in the data, and then start to unpick them a bit. So if you start getting excited half way through you might find you’re less excited at the end. But we’ll see…
First we first have to go back a bit. @bristoliver posted a thread a few days ago explaining why, with a constant vaccination rate, a log plot of cases should show a quadratic form. In other words, it should fit an equation like: a + b.x + c.x^2
I meant to link in the model thread there - here it is
the quadratic coefficient – the ‘c’ in that equation – gives an estimate of the % of the population who are being newly protected by the vaccine each day. Please note ‘protected by the vaccine’, not ‘vaccinated’ – as we don't expect 100% protection after the first dose
ok, I lied. but strictly it's not a new graph, just a new trendline (now a quadratic on the log plot). looks um... quite a good fit. so I'd say that was interesting. pic.twitter.com/qkgyMf1ya8
— James Ward (@JamesWard73) January 27, 2021
WARNING: this is a long thread, and it’s a bit of a roller-coaster. We find some apparently strong patterns in the data, and then start to unpick them a bit. So if you start getting excited half way through you might find you’re less excited at the end. But we’ll see…
First we first have to go back a bit. @bristoliver posted a thread a few days ago explaining why, with a constant vaccination rate, a log plot of cases should show a quadratic form. In other words, it should fit an equation like: a + b.x + c.x^2
I meant to link in the model thread there - here it is
Been thinking about where we are, where we might be going, what effect vaccines might have and how to tell. This thread may not happen all at once, and will get a bit mathematical in a couple of places (sorry!), but I will put in pictures. It's yet another argument for log scales
— Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) January 24, 2021
the quadratic coefficient – the ‘c’ in that equation – gives an estimate of the % of the population who are being newly protected by the vaccine each day. Please note ‘protected by the vaccine’, not ‘vaccinated’ – as we don't expect 100% protection after the first dose
