Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet
While my time investing in crypto and previously playing poker has gotten me used to experiencing large daily personal net worth volatility, it's never a pleasant experience
Short thread (by my standards...) with some ramblings that help me get through it 👇
Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet
Unlike early stage tech, crypto investors will have liquidity, i.e. the possibility, and thus the temptation, to sell
This is both a blessing and a curse
Crypto, as early stage tech, is much riskier than established public companies and thus even higher vol too
However, one should not let the liquidity take advantage of us
However, the fundamentals themselves rarely change that much in such short periods of time and so neither should one's investments
Occasionally they may prompt a reevaluation of the thesis, but if one is investing based on fundamentals this should imo be rare
Beware of the rationalisations for selling that spring up during downturns
If anything, it should happen more during upturns as the investment becomes more expensive and therefore riskier
For most of us working + investing in the space, our net worths are already extremely correlated to crypto prices
More from Crypto
1/ Bitcoin: a bold new world.
Satoshi published the white paper on 10/31/2008. Right at the moment of peak despair during the 2008 financial crisis. Trust had been lost in a world that ran on trust.
2/ But why October 31st? It certainly wasn’t because Satoshi was a fan of halloween, it must have had a deeper meaning. With all of his actions, he demonstrated a careful precision.
He had been working on Bitcoin for at least a year and a half before publishing the white paper.
3/ “I believe I've worked through all those little details over the last year and a half while coding it, and there were a lot of them. The functional details are not covered in the paper, but the sourcecode is coming soon” - Satoshi Nakamoto
4/ On August 18, 2008 Satoshi registers registers https://t.co/rMWwiEwtxT through https://t.co/Uj8lMr10kB.
Satoshi was ready and waiting to hit the send button throughout 2008. What was so special about October 31st?
5/ I believe that Satoshi published the Bitcoin white paper on 10/31 as a hat tip to the ancient Gaelic festival of “Samhain” which was also the date in which Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to a church door. Both represent an end of the old and the beginning of the new.
Satoshi published the white paper on 10/31/2008. Right at the moment of peak despair during the 2008 financial crisis. Trust had been lost in a world that ran on trust.
2/ But why October 31st? It certainly wasn’t because Satoshi was a fan of halloween, it must have had a deeper meaning. With all of his actions, he demonstrated a careful precision.
He had been working on Bitcoin for at least a year and a half before publishing the white paper.
3/ “I believe I've worked through all those little details over the last year and a half while coding it, and there were a lot of them. The functional details are not covered in the paper, but the sourcecode is coming soon” - Satoshi Nakamoto
4/ On August 18, 2008 Satoshi registers registers https://t.co/rMWwiEwtxT through https://t.co/Uj8lMr10kB.
Satoshi was ready and waiting to hit the send button throughout 2008. What was so special about October 31st?
5/ I believe that Satoshi published the Bitcoin white paper on 10/31 as a hat tip to the ancient Gaelic festival of “Samhain” which was also the date in which Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to a church door. Both represent an end of the old and the beginning of the new.
I've just read one of the most lucid, wide-ranging, cross-disciplinary critiques of cryptocurrency and blockchain I've yet to encounter. 1/
It comes from David "DSHR" Rosenthal, a distinguished technologist whose past achievements including helping to develop X11 and the core technologies for Nvidia.
https://t.co/tkAMShno4k 2/
Rosenthal's critique is a transcript of a lecture he gave to Stanford's EE380 class, adapted from a December 2021 talk for an investor conference. 3/
It is a bang-up-to-date synthesis of many of the critical writings on the subject, glued together with Rosenthal's own deep technical expertise. He calls it "Can We Mitigate Cryptocurrencies' Externalities?"
The presence of "externalities" in Rosenthal's title is key. 4/
Rosenthal identifies blockchainism's core ideology as emerging from "the libertarian culture of Silicon Valley and the cypherpunks," and states that "libertarianism's attraction is based on ignoring externalities."
This is an important critique of libertarianism. 5/
It comes from David "DSHR" Rosenthal, a distinguished technologist whose past achievements including helping to develop X11 and the core technologies for Nvidia.
https://t.co/tkAMShno4k 2/
Rosenthal's critique is a transcript of a lecture he gave to Stanford's EE380 class, adapted from a December 2021 talk for an investor conference. 3/
It is a bang-up-to-date synthesis of many of the critical writings on the subject, glued together with Rosenthal's own deep technical expertise. He calls it "Can We Mitigate Cryptocurrencies' Externalities?"
The presence of "externalities" in Rosenthal's title is key. 4/
Rosenthal identifies blockchainism's core ideology as emerging from "the libertarian culture of Silicon Valley and the cypherpunks," and states that "libertarianism's attraction is based on ignoring externalities."
This is an important critique of libertarianism. 5/
