While my time investing in crypto and previously playing poker has gotten me used to experiencing large daily personal net worth volatility, it's never a pleasant experience

Short thread (by my standards...) with some ramblings that help me get through it 👇

1/10 Imo, some DeFi projects represent 10-1000x upside opportunities

Obviously, like all of crypto, it is extremely risky and can go to 0. That said, given the magnitude of potential outcomes, it just doesn't have to succeed that often to make it a massively +EV bet
2/10 As with all early stage tech, realising these outcomes will require 4-8 year holds

Unlike early stage tech, crypto investors will have liquidity, i.e. the possibility, and thus the temptation, to sell

This is both a blessing and a curse
3/10 A look at any of the best performing public stocks will show you that you cannot have 10-1000x upside potential without volatiliy and occasional large drawdowns

Crypto, as early stage tech, is much riskier than established public companies and thus even higher vol too
4/10 Obviously, one should take advantage of this liquidity as it allows for rebalancing. Most importantly, it also makes outcomes less binary and thus less volatile than traditional VC

However, one should not let the liquidity take advantage of us
5/10 No matter what anyone tells you, 50%+ drawdowns are no fun

However, the fundamentals themselves rarely change that much in such short periods of time and so neither should one's investments
6/10 At best, drawdowns can help prompt one to question the thesis and (hopefully) come back more convicted

Occasionally they may prompt a reevaluation of the thesis, but if one is investing based on fundamentals this should imo be rare
7/10 After all, price is just a single and often extremely noisy, data point about an investment. Its movements up or down should not meaningfully impact the thesis

Beware of the rationalisations for selling that spring up during downturns
8/10 At the same time, one shouldn't be afraid to let go of an investment if the thesis has materially changed. But this shouldn't happen more often during downturns

If anything, it should happen more during upturns as the investment becomes more expensive and therefore riskier
9/10 Finally, crypto is a highly +EV bet but if you don't think theres a significant chance of failure, you're kidding yourself

For most of us working + investing in the space, our net worths are already extremely correlated to crypto prices
10/10 Being an absolute Chad and having 95% of your net worth in crypto is cool if you're ok with the risks

That said, some rebalancing makes sense and can also lead to better investment and life outcomes if it means you're less stressed and able sleep better at night
P.S. This isn't investment or life advice as I'm in no position to give out either. Just some thoughts that have helped me personally deal with swings over the years

Hopefully they can help someone else and get me some followers in the process

More from Crypto

🚨Altcoin Trading Indicator🚨

How to use it. A THREAD.

Please Share.

To use it to buy Altcoins and make a high probability entry, the following conditions needs to be fulfilled.

For a long.
1. A green candle Closes above the cross.
2. Heikin Ashi candle turns green.
3. Price should be above 0.236 Fib from the swing high.


How to add the Indicator.

1. Click on the link and Add it to favorites and apply.
https://t.co/Kn90qgDjMi

2. Or Search it in the tab and then apply it.


The indicator itself the most comprehensive Moving Average Indicator which provides 9 MAs and 13 Different times of MAs.

The base of the indicator was by @insiliconot.

To further enhance it, I have added a cross indicator on the cross which works the best historically on Alts.


Condition 1- The cross.

Entry is made when a Cross occurs on the EMA 13/21.
The indicator automatically indicators the Cross with P for a positive cross or N for a negative cross.

This is the first condition for an Entry.
I've just read one of the most lucid, wide-ranging, cross-disciplinary critiques of cryptocurrency and blockchain I've yet to encounter. 1/


It comes from David "DSHR" Rosenthal, a distinguished technologist whose past achievements including helping to develop X11 and the core technologies for Nvidia.

https://t.co/tkAMShno4k 2/

Rosenthal's critique is a transcript of a lecture he gave to Stanford's EE380 class, adapted from a December 2021 talk for an investor conference. 3/

It is a bang-up-to-date synthesis of many of the critical writings on the subject, glued together with Rosenthal's own deep technical expertise. He calls it "Can We Mitigate Cryptocurrencies' Externalities?"

The presence of "externalities" in Rosenthal's title is key. 4/

Rosenthal identifies blockchainism's core ideology as emerging from "the libertarian culture of Silicon Valley and the cypherpunks," and states that "libertarianism's attraction is based on ignoring externalities."

This is an important critique of libertarianism. 5/

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#தினம்_ஒரு_திருவாசகம்
தொல்லை இரும்பிறவிச் சூழும் தளை நீக்கி
அல்லல் அறுத்து ஆனந்தம் ஆக்கியதே – எல்லை
மருவா நெறியளிக்கும் வாதவூர் எங்கோன்
திருவாசகம் என்னும் தேன்

பொருள்:
1.எப்போது ஆரம்பித்தது என அறியப்படமுடியாத தொலை காலமாக (தொல்லை)

2. இருந்து வரும் (இரும்)


3.பிறவிப் பயணத்திலே ஆழ்த்துகின்ற (பிறவி சூழும்)

4.அறியாமையாகிய இடரை (தளை)

5.அகற்றி (நீக்கி),

6.அதன் விளைவால் சுகதுக்கமெனும் துயரங்கள் விலக (அல்லல் அறுத்து),

7.முழுநிறைவாய்த் தன்னுளே இறைவனை உணர்த்துவதே (ஆனந்த மாக்கியதே),

8.பிறந்து இறக்கும் காலவெளிகளில் (எல்லை)

9.பிணைக்காமல் (மருவா)

10.காக்கும் மெய்யறிவினைத் தருகின்ற (நெறியளிக்கும்),

11.என் தலைவனான மாணிக்க வாசகரின் (வாதவூரெங்கோன்)

12.திருவாசகம் எனும் தேன் (திருவா சகமென்னுந் தேன்)

முதல்வரி: பிறவி என்பது முன்வினை விதையால் முளைப்பதோர் பெருமரம். அந்த ‘முன்வினை’ எங்கு ஆரம்பித்தது எனச் சொல்ல இயலாது. ஆனால் ‘அறியாமை’ ஒன்றே ஆசைக்கும்,, அச்சத்துக்கும் காரணம் என்பதால், அவையே வினைகளை விளைவிப்பன என்பதால், தொடர்ந்து வரும் பிறவிகளுக்கு, ‘அறியாமையே’ காரணம்

அறியாமைக்கு ஆரம்பம் கிடையாது. நமக்கு ஒரு பொருளைப் பற்றிய அறிவு எப்போதிருந்து இல்லை? அதைச் சொல்ல முடியாது. அதனாலேதான் முதலடியில், ஆரம்பமில்லாத அஞ்ஞானத்தை பிறவிகளுக்குக் காரணமாகச் சொல்லியது. ஆனால் அறியாமை, அறிவின் எழுச்சியால், அப்போதே முடிந்து விடும்.