BC BOOKMARK

Saved by @Alex1Powell

John
@udarnik 5 years, 9 months ago 724 views

Save to PDF Share See On Twitter

I am bookmarking this.

For all the stupid motherfuckers out there arguing that (and I quote this figure from some stupid motherfucker arguing with me) 99.97% of people will be fine.

\U0001f9f5For months, healthcare professionals have been hanging on to the guardrails of the top deck of the Titanic.

We have been screaming at the top of our lungs that there is an iceberg dead ahead and begging the captain to turn the wheel.

We have had other passengers who are
— Kari Jerge, MD, FACS (she/her) (@kari_jerge) November 29, 2020

First of all: your math is wrong. The 10:1 assumption on symptomatic to asymptomatic cases is just that: an assumption. Maybe true in NY and NJ, likely not elsewhere ... yet.

Second, just sticking to cases, and not stopping tom punch holes in the "a quarter of Americans have had it, so HERD IMMUNITY, YAY!!!" complete and utter horse shit you're peddling, we we had 143K new cases yesterday, and that's *without* the Thanksgiving surge in 5-7 days hence.

Let's be really generous and unrealistic and say that 2% of COVID *cases* end up in the ICU.

We currently have about 65K COVID cases hospitalized and 17K of those are in the ICU.

Confidence intervals of median ICU stay in the best studies we have are 5 - 19 days. One study showed 25% of patients needing over 30 days.

https://t.co/1Szt7A6anp

At the unrealistic 2% number, we are currently adding 3000 future ICU patients per *day* and discharging about that many per week to two weeks.

At the more realistic 5% number, we're adding 7500 ICU patients per day.

The Thanksgiving surge is going to push us well over 200K cases / day. That is somewhere between 4000 and 10,000 future ICU cases *per day* from the 4 days this holiday.

We will have ~25,000 of our ICU beds filled, already. Probably more. There are ~85,000 ICU beds in the US. We can surge maybe another 50% - but, and I can not stress this enough, an ICU bed is FUCKING USELESS WITHOUT STAFF.

The more cases we have, the more staff will get sick.

So, now, instead of holding steady at ~150K cases per day and 3K-7.5K future ICU cases, we are going to surge to over 200K cases per day, yielding 4K - 10K ICU admissions, for the next 2 weeks because people just had to fucking kill grandma.

I mean *see* grandma.

Yeah.

The baseline was bad enough. But now we are going to add, let's use the middle figure of 7K cases per day for 2 weeks, most of whom won't be out of the hospital for over 2 weeks, with 25% of the ICU *already* taken by COVID patients.

(Broken thread, rejoining): That puts us at 98K cases. Plus my (low) estimate of 25K already in there: 123K cases.

And 150% of 85K available beds is... ~127K.

Not even getting into the fact I'm assuming uniform case distribution, and we all *know* this shit clusters...

This is just back-of-the-envelope, simple arithmetic available to all the fucking mouth-breathers arguing with people like me. It doesn't involve Bayesian stats or differential equations (though it wouldn't hurt if you knew DE, this is a salt tank problem...).

So just from the Thanksgiving surge, at the *bare* fucking minimum, we are going to saturate our ICU capacity with COVID.

And if you have some other condition requiring the ICU, too fucking bad. We had COVID fatigue, you see.

Take one for the team, dude.

I am SO goddamned sick of people cherry picking, misrepresenting and plain old making up statistics.

It's part of a pattern in modern American life that is alienating scientists like me from the general population.

We are looking at y'all in fucking horror at the best of times.

But now? Now when you're telling health care workers to their (Twitter) faces that they are lying to you? Telling experts like me we are over-blowing simple, inexorable arithmetic you can do, yourselves?

This isn't Flat Eartherism or Creationism. Lives are at stake.

You May Also Like

$\u092c\u094d\u0930\u093e\u0939\u094d\u092e\u0923\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0907\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938\U0001f441\ufe0f\U0001f441\ufe0f$

ब्राह्मणों का इतिहास👁️...
@BRAHMIN_0052

MOHIYAL_BRAHMIN_KING
RAJA_PORUS
King_Porus_History

1)King Porus was a famous Indian king, his real name was #Purushotama. He belonged to PURU tribe mentioned in #RIG_VEDA, the Ancient books of India.

2) Porus ruled the Punjab region and expanded his kingdom between the Jhelum River and Chenab River in the Indian Subcontinent. He was a legendary warrior and more war skills. He made the army most powerful with war skills. Even Alexander had also made difficulty to defeat Porus.

3)Word of Mouth Oral tradition in #Mohyal_Brahmin families since ancient times has kept the Great Saga of their Great Elder known to them as Maharaja “ #Puru” alive.

4) When #Alexander the Great invaded India in 326 BC he was challenged near Taxila by a mere chieftain of the Area. He was King #Porus, a #Vaid_Mohyal. After his encounter with Porus, Alexander met with more resistance near Multan where the forces were predominantly #Mohyal.

5)The Bali rulers of Multan fiercely engaged with Alexander's army in skirmishes in which many senior Generals died. Later during the long and bitter fighting in #Multan, Alexander got hurt by an arrow which pierced his chest ,

Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1

NARHARI AND BHAGWAN PANDURANG/VITTHAL

Once a goldsmith by the name of Narhari lived in Pandharpur. He excelled in his craft. He had vowed not to look at Pandurang or visit his mandir ever, as he was a Shiva Bhakt.
One day, a wealthy merchant visited him.

He wanted a gold girdle studded with precious gems, to be made for Prabhu Vitthal. Narhari refused to make it as it was for Vitthal.
After many requests, he agreed to make the girdle but asked the merchant to bring the measurement from the mandir as he himself would not go there

The measurement was given n he made the girdle. When the girdle was put on Vitthal, it was loose. Narhari had to shorten it. Now the girdle became tight. So Narhari was forced to take measurement on his own. He had to go to the mandir but went blindfolded to avoid seeing Vitthal

In the Mandir, when blindfolded Narhari touched Vitthal, he felt as if he was touching Shiva with matted hair, the moon, snake in His neck and Trishul in His hand. Ecstatic with joy, he removed the blindfold to see Shiva but he found the murti of Vitthal with Rukmini there.

He realised the truth that there was no difference between Vitthal and Shiva. Narhari at once fell at the feet of Panduranga. He then took the measurement of the waist of Vitthal and this time the ornament fit the Murti perfectly.

Narayan Hari🙏🏻

Advertisement

Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

RISHI PINGALA:THE ANCIENT INDIAN SAGE DISCREDITED FOR HIS MAJOR CONTRIBUTIONS TO MATHEMATICS & PHI

Have you ever heard about,"The Golden Ratio"?
The Golden Ratio or Phi(Greek) is a mathematical ratio of nature. Mother Nature is the most exquisite artist in herself.

&Its this Phi she uses to create all the beauty in World.
If anyone uses this ratio correctly in their art,it can turn into a spell-binding piece of work.Such is the significance of'Phi'.But my thread isn't about it.Its about somethin called'Fibonacci Series'&who actually made it

Phi is related to Fibonacci series(0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...)
&this series is responsible for everything dat is beautiful on this planet. Just try to calculate the ratio of any 2 successive numbers ÷ each of them by the number before it in above infinite series.

E.g. 3/2=1.5, 5/3=1.666, 8/5=1.6, 34/21=1.61904 and so on. Did you notice something? The ratio is coming almost same every time. This ratio is called 'Phi 'which is numerically represented as 1:1.618. This Golden Spiral is made in exact proportion of 1:1.618.

The thing I want to emphasize here is that we always find only those things appealing and attractive that have Phi. It's in our subconscious. Isn't it some revelation? We are the part of this Divine proportion of the God or the Mother Nature. Check these:

$sriram \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$

sriram 🇮🇳...
@SriramKannan77

Saptapadi

The most essential rite (Sanskrit: rītī) of a Hindu marriage ceremony is Saptapadi (English: seven steps, saptapadī). Saptapadi is a Sanskrit term that means "seven steps." The wedded couple walks seven steps after tying the Mangalsutra, which is known as Saptapadi.

The couple legally becomes husband and wife after the seventh step.
Hindu wedding rituals: During Saath Phere, the bride and groom exchange their marital vows while circumambulating (walking around) the sacred fire seven times.

This is because the bride and groom exchange marriage vows and hope for a happy married life together.

1. The first marriage vow, out of seven, is a petition to the Lord for nutrition and nourishment for the Hindu bride and groom.

2. Hindu Bride and Groom: The second marriage promise is for strength in sickness, health, good times, and terrible times.

3. For the Hindu Bride and Groom - The third marriage promise is for the Hindu bride and groom's prosperity.

4. For Hindu Bride and Groom - The fourth pledge is to stand by their families in good times and bad.

Vibhor Varshney
@nakulvibhor

On the occasion of youtube 20k and Twitter 70k members

A small tribute/gift to members

Screeners

technical screeners - intraday and positional both

before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too

thank you

positional one

run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels

1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht

2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB

3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2

4- Bullish from last 5

intraday screeners

5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv

6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G

7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo

Thank you