BC BABA

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Lyall Taylor
@LT3000Lyall 4 years, 8 months ago 583 views

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BABA:

Slowing revenue growth/maturing e-com pen; rising competition and falling market share.
40% decline in core profitability in 3Q21.
Run-rate core P/E probably about 40x post SBC with further significant declines possible.
Regulatory risks/headwinds.
*Still over-owned.

I've been arguing for a while now people have been using inappropriately low forward P/E multiples for BABA, often arguing it's on <20x 2021, excluding substantial SBC and failing to account the earnings risks & reasons why the stock has been going down in the first place.

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Green Ranger
@TheRetroRanger

@bkaellner @nedunchzlian But WE sadly dont know the size of the bet

Frank Taber
@frankinvesting

Thread/

$BABA cloud business is being completed missed by the market.

Let me explain why Alibaba Cloud, which makes up just ~10% of LTM revenues, could become worth more than the entire current market cap by FY25

1/

Alibaba Cloud made US$9.2 Billion in revenue for FY21 and grew 33% YoY.

They have ~38% market share of the cloud industry in China. Which is slightly more market share than AWS has in the US.

2/

In their investor presentation, $BABA projected that the cloud market in China will grow at a 37% CAGR until 2025.

The IDC estimated the CAGR to be 33% over the next 5 years.

The global cloud market is estimated to grow at 17.5% annually.

3/

If we take the IDC’s more conservative annual growth estimation of 33%, and $BABA maintains their 38% market share, they would generate $28.8 billion of revenue in FY25.

Alibaba cloud even benefit from scale economies and continue to take more market share.

4/

If we apply a 10x sales multiple we get to a $288 billion valuation for the cloud business in FY25.

Analysts typically value AWS, Azure & Google cloud at closer to 15x sales. So a 10x multiple for a company with more domestic market share and a higher CAGR isn’t unreasonable

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Conner Walden
@conner_walden

$BABA will be $400 by 2024 EOY…$150s is an absolute steal if you’ve got the intelligence & guts to go against the crowd that knows next to nothing about it 🤷🏼‍♂️

Lillian Li
@lillianmli

"By creating the concept that data is a factor of production, China Inc. has formalised and legislated the stance that data itself is valuable rather than the algorithms it helps train.

The Chinese leadership has subtly but deftly implied that data's value to a nation is underpriced and currently subjected to market distortions."

I think China's making money moves in the area of data. Read about it

Mungeresque Investing
@MadConX

The article is from April 2021, but it shows how $BABA is sharing their economies of scale benefits with customers (merchants) and sellers.
Why wouldn't a shareholder be happier and happier when Alibaba is pleasing everyone in the

"Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang said in a call with investors this week that ongoing technological improvements and upgrades have enabled the company to expand its portfolio of sophisticated services, offering them for free or at lower costs than before to merchants and partners."

Through these decisions, $BABA is leveraging its scale to bring efficiency and lower costs for merchants and sellers, which in return will bring more sellers/merchants and buyers. Also, Alibaba is giving up profits today for longer period of profits in the future.

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SK
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Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
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It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.

After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year

as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.

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Brittany Packnett
@MsPackyetti

We should stop confusing what someone was doing when we became aware of them with all they are capable of, interested in, or ever hope to be

Let folks have their many talents, interests and gifts. Life is far more fun with variety, loves.

A lot of folks have come to know me as an activist & I’m grateful that folks care to know me at all.

But I wasn’t born in 2014. I was a whole teacher, executive, policy person, speaker, arts and culture lover, reader, writer, woman of faith, fashion and more before 4 yrs ago 🤷🏾‍♀️

We rightfully complain that marginalized people are not allowed to be fully human.

But we internalize and transfer our oppression daily. It’s a smog. We all breathe it in & act it out.

And then tell WoC “girl ain’t you supposed to be a _______? Why you doing ____?”

Can I live?

And don’t go reading anything personal into this-this isn’t about me necessarily and it’s no subtweet (I try hard not to do that.)

I’ve just been observing that behavior more and more lately. Especially when it comes to marginalized folks.

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Ethan 👨‍🎤...
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