This cycle is quite similar to the 2000-2002 TMT bust...

Lots of sharp bear market rallies, tech underperformance and similar to the TMT bust, very high odds that recession will land about a year after the start of the bear market in stocks.

Earnings declines are not priced in!

To make matters worse, during the TMT bust, at this point of the macro cycle the Fed was already aggressively easing...

This time around, it is still hiking rates and doing QT!

Recession seems inevitable and highly likely the stock market is about to get a wake up call.
The stock market has NOT discounted the recession.

$SPX consensus EPS estimate for '23 is still flat vs. '22 and most money managers are anchored off this unrealistic number.

$SPX earnings likely to decline materially during '23 + this is likely to be the final shoe to drop.
During late 2001, $SPX did climb above its 200-day ma (head fake) whereas $NDX couldn't (similar to now).

Back then, semiconductors also rallied sharply but then the final leg down of the bear-market started and crushed all stocks.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out!

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“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]