When you analyze a company, you (hopefully) come up with an investment thesis at the end.
But it’s nothing more than that - a thesis.
The future is yet unwritten thus unknown.
“How do you know?”
You never know!
In investing, you have to act on incomplete knowledge.
I came across a great article by @honam lately.
In it, he discusses his decision-making under the condition of an unknowable future.
I think the learnings are worth sharing 👇🏼
When you analyze a company, you (hopefully) come up with an investment thesis at the end.
But it’s nothing more than that - a thesis.
The future is yet unwritten thus unknown.
That’s why your work isn’t done after the decision to buy.
Investing is a journey.
You have to reevaluate your investments constantly.
Although they’re primarily VC (Venture Capital) focused, I believe we can all learn something from them.
Especially in the VC world, but also with bigger and more established companies, it’s not a given companies make money.
There’s a tendency to overpay for vision and underpay for value at the moment.
But Cash-Flow is a form of safety.
“Difficult times are when the best companies separate from the pack.”
First, look for what’s already there (Cash-Flow, etc.) and only afterward think about what ‘might’ can be built on that in the future.
Every attractive long-term option has to have something that makes it unique, inimitable.
No matter how good the profits or cash-flows are, if nothing protects them, it’s just a matter of time that they’ll vanish.
Look for structures (positive feedback loops, a mission-driven culture, etc.) that give the company a long-term advantage.
Especially young companies only survive if they offer something others don’t.
This third point is primarily important to figure out when to exit.
After the company got successful, new liquidity has to flow into the company (higher salaries, more employees, more projects).
This last point is probably not very practical for most of us (who are not in the VC business).
At least for Altos. (The company Ho Nam Co-founded and works for as a Managing Director)
If the relationship between stakeholders/investors and the management starts to shake, it might be time to call it an end.
Same or at least similar priorities are important.
For more content like this, feel free to follow me @MnkeDaniel
Here’s the original Article by @honam:
https://t.co/f34Wg4BMXN
https://t.co/W1uq4pQOUY
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@ValueInvestorAc
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More from Daniel
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is one of the most successful investors of all time.
He turned ~$100 into $5.8 billion and never managed outside money.
That's a 67% CAGR over 37 years
He never wrote a book, memos, or investing letters.
However, there are some interviews and transcripts👇
Here's a compiled PDF:
https://t.co/ypNv9QeUx9
If you have additional material, please let me know, and I'll update the PDF.
Follow the Substack for free to get all the Resources I read to learn more about investing.
He turned ~$100 into $5.8 billion and never managed outside money.
That's a 67% CAGR over 37 years
He never wrote a book, memos, or investing letters.
However, there are some interviews and transcripts👇
Here's a compiled PDF:
https://t.co/ypNv9QeUx9
If you have additional material, please let me know, and I'll update the PDF.
Follow the Substack for free to get all the Resources I read to learn more about investing.
More from All
Took me 5 years to get the best Chartink scanners for Stock Market, but you’ll get it in 5 mminutes here ⏰
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Hourly Breakout
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Volume spurt in a stock with massive X times
Do Share the above tweet 👆
These are going to be very simple yet effective pure price action based scanners, no fancy indicators nothing - hope you liked it.
https://t.co/JU0MJIbpRV
52 Week High
One of the classic scanners very you will get strong stocks to Bet on.
https://t.co/V69th0jwBr
Hourly Breakout
This scanner will give you short term bet breakouts like hourly or 2Hr breakout
Volume shocker
Volume spurt in a stock with massive X times
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Assalam Alaiki dear Sister in Islam. I hope this meets you well. Hope you are keeping safe in this pandemic. May Allah preserve you and your beloved family. I would like to address the misconception and misinterpretation in your thread. Please peruse the THREAD below.
1. First off, a disclaimer. Should you feel hurt by my words in the course of the thread, then forgive me. It’s from me and not from Islam. And I probably have to improve on my delivery. And I may not quote you verbatim, but the intended meaning would be there. Thank You!
2. Standing on Imam Shafii’s quote: “And I never debated anyone but that I did not mind whether Allah clarified the truth on my tongue or his tongue” or “I never once debated anyone hoping to win the debate; rather I always wished that the truth would come from his side.”
3. Okay, into the meat (my love for meat is showing. Lol) of the thread. Even though you didn’t mention the verse that permitted polygamy, everyone knows the verse you were talking about (Q4:3).
4. Your reasons for the revelation of the verse are strange. The first time I came across such. I had to quickly consult the books on the exegeses or tafsir of the Quran written by renowned specialists!
A lot of things Muslims do now and claim as Islamic rule is actually a culture that Islam curtailed or tried to perfect.
— Sule Nana (@izesule) January 2, 2021
Let's talk polygamy.
Islam didn't come and say, "oh men, marry four wives"
No.
Polygamy was in existence, long before the coming of Islam.
1. First off, a disclaimer. Should you feel hurt by my words in the course of the thread, then forgive me. It’s from me and not from Islam. And I probably have to improve on my delivery. And I may not quote you verbatim, but the intended meaning would be there. Thank You!
2. Standing on Imam Shafii’s quote: “And I never debated anyone but that I did not mind whether Allah clarified the truth on my tongue or his tongue” or “I never once debated anyone hoping to win the debate; rather I always wished that the truth would come from his side.”
3. Okay, into the meat (my love for meat is showing. Lol) of the thread. Even though you didn’t mention the verse that permitted polygamy, everyone knows the verse you were talking about (Q4:3).
4. Your reasons for the revelation of the verse are strange. The first time I came across such. I had to quickly consult the books on the exegeses or tafsir of the Quran written by renowned specialists!
Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇
It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details): https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha
I've read it so you needn't!
Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.
The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.
Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details): https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha
I've read it so you needn't!
Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.
The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.
Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
