Elon Musk is on record that he makes decisions using the same technique as Jeff Bezos.
— Julian Shapiro (@Julian) April 3, 2021
I found YouTube videos of them explaining it.
A thread on thinking more clearly:
The ultimate meta thread on thinking:
MEGA THREAD TIME
— David Perell (@david_perell) May 10, 2020
Here are 50 ideas that shape my worldview.
These are my guiding principles and the light of my intellectual life. All of them will help you think better, and I hope they inspire curiosity.
The day you became a clearer thinker, you:
— Shreyas Doshi (@shreyas) October 12, 2020
-started by identifying the real goal
-decomposed vague concepts
-framed the right questions
-sought more data or experience
-listened to multiple perspectives
-assessed upsides & downsides
-examined your own biases
-acted like an owner
I've taught thousands of people make smart decisions without getting lucky.
— Shane Parrish (@ShaneAParrish) February 2, 2021
Here is a thread on 5 of the biggest reasons we fail to make effective decisions.
Thread of threads on @RoamResearch and general thoughts on knowledge, notes, and collective intelligence
— Conor White-Sullivan \U000100cf\U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 (@Conaw) November 24, 2019
Best place to start is with one we didn't have any part in writing https://t.co/n8XP3LlQEK
THREAD: 5 powerful mental models to help you win in a competitive world.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) January 18, 2021
In investing, business, startups, writing, or life...
CHARLIE MUNGER'S 7 IRON LAWS:
— George Mack (@george__mack) May 6, 2019
Charlie Munger has been the biggest COGNITIVE INFLUENCE on my life so far.
Here are a list of my favourite PRINCIPLES from the eccentric billionaire.
THREAD...
This amazing graphic shows most of the cognitive biases and organizes them into themes.
— Jay Van Bavel (@jayvanbavel) October 27, 2019
But from the lens of evolution, if a cognitive bias increased fitness it it a not a design flaw, but a design featurehttps://t.co/lwvZfNsAIu pic.twitter.com/FLMhBjCLeq
The use of spaced repetition memory systems has changed my life over the past couple of years. Here's a few things I've found helpful:
— Michael Nielsen (@michael_nielsen) January 28, 2018
Maps of knowledge are a valuable tool in navigating domains of information at a glance.
— Juvoni Beckford (@juvoni) October 17, 2020
A good map:
- Titles & Categorizes
- Shows Scale & Relativity
- Orients Direction
- Uses Symbolic identifiers
Here are some great maps by @DominicWalliman creator of Domain of Science. \U0001f5fa pic.twitter.com/3ckkLO8k3a
MEGATHREAD TIME: In 40 tweets I will describe 40 powerful concepts for understanding the world. Some are complex so forgive me for oversimplifying, but the main purpose is to incite curiosity. Okay, here we go:
— Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020
1/ Why you need to document things to improve your decision-making, a thread:
— Jim OShaughnessy (@jposhaughnessy) January 18, 2020
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."
~Richard P. Feynman
Feynman is one of my heroes, a brilliant physicist who was also a renaissance man
Digital Gardening https://t.co/snQzuZv9Ya
A spectrum of digital gardening.
— Maggie Appleton \U0001f9ed (@Mappletons) July 5, 2020
I like to think of it as the happy middle between chaos streams and full-scale cultivated performance. pic.twitter.com/qQanOgBfDq
The quality of your mind is the quality of your life.
— Naval (@naval) September 24, 2020
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Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:
Next level tactic when closing a sale, candidate, or investment:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) February 27, 2018
Ask: \u201cWhat needs to be true for you to be all in?\u201d
You'll usually get an explicit answer that you might not get otherwise. It also holds them accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to
- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal
3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:
Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.
Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.
4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?
To get clarity.
You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.
It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”
Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays
Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora
What qualifies for an extended move?
30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move
How Manas used this info to book
The stock exploded & went up as much as 63% from my price.
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 22, 2020
Closed my position entirely today!#BroTip pic.twitter.com/CRbQh3kvMM
Post that the plight of the
What an extended (away from averages) move looks like!!
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 24, 2020
If you don't learn to sell into strength, be ready to give away the majority of your gains.#GLENMARK pic.twitter.com/5DsRTUaGO2
Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA
10WMA =
#HIKAL
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) July 2, 2021
Closed remaining at 560
Reason: It is 40+% from 10wma. Super extended
Total revenue: 11R * 0.25 (size) = 2.75% on portfolio
Trade closed pic.twitter.com/YDDvhz8swT
Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:
Too many green days!
Read
When you see 15 green weeks in a row, that's the end of the move. *Extended*
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) August 26, 2019
Simple price action analysis.#Seamecltd https://t.co/gR9xzgeb9K