BREAKING! Exit poll for #BavariaElection has #AfD only at 4th place, well after Greens, who are real winners. Some quick observations on #LtwBayern

1. CSU +AfD together have ca. 1% less than CSU alone had in 2013!

2. SPD + Greens have about 1% less than they had in 2013 too!

3. Key take-away: little changes in terms of blocks, or even smaller parties, but right has gone largely far right and center-left has gone more left.

4. Aggregate electoral volatility is not always good indicator for individual electoral volatility, but it seems fair to assume most CSU defected to AfD and most SPD defected to Greens.

This is an absolutely excellent article by @TobiasBuckFT on the decline of the German Social Democrats with ramifications for SD parties throughout Western Europe. Some quick thought. #thread

1. I still think it buys a little bit too much into the packaging excuse. In essence, it is not about "charismatic leader" or "we didn't tell our story well enough", it is about not having a convincing story!

2. What is making Social Democratic parties irrelevant throughout Europe is not a lack of personnel or policies, but of ideology!

3. Only after Social Democrats have reinvented social democracy for the 21st century, as a modern(ized) left-wing ideology), not a blitzy packaged collection of slogans or a weak verion of right-wing policies, can they win voters (back).

4. But even then it has to accept that it lives in a different time, in which true social democratic values are no longer obvious or even popular.

The one "Insurrection" video you MUST see.

@NewYorker reporter @LukeMogelson
followed Trump supporters as they forced their way into the Senate chamber.

Some quick thoughts... #Thread

1. Except for race, the crowd is incredibly diverse -- age, education, far-right subculture, region, even gender (although less so those inside the Capitol).