1/ Why you need to document things to improve your decision-making, a thread:

"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."
~Richard P. Feynman

Feynman is one of my heroes, a brilliant physicist who was also a renaissance man

2/ If you read any of his books or the books written about him, you'll see he had an amazing capacity to challenge not only conventional views and beliefs, but also his own as well. As I've mentioned in other threads, that's a really hard habit to acquire.

3/ One reason why it's so hard is that our brain's have some funny kinks that exist to give us a "kinder and gentler" view of reality and ourselves than is warranted. One such kink is the foundation of hindsight bias, where our brain rewires our "memories" to make them consistent

4/ with current conditions. And the sneaky part is, we genuinely believe that our current "memory" of what we thought in the past is accurate. One way to see just how true this is is to keep a handwritten journal of decisions and beliefs throughout time.

5/ If you can consistently record thoughts, decisions and beliefs over time, you'll quickly see that we are all "unreliable narrators." An unreliable narrator is a "narrator whose credibility has been seriously compromised.

My Monthly Learning Calendar for Investing.🗓️

If I had 1 hour per day (for non-Company related research), this is what I would do.

Going thru specific topics on specific days should help streamline the reading/learning process w/o causing too much information overload.

Investing in individual stocks is more than just company specific research.

It's about having a broader perspective on many topics including Investing principles/philosophy/history, Industry trends/landscapes, and thoughts/deep dives from other reliable sources.

I'm grateful to all these awesome folks that put out such quality content.

Also separate h/t to all the folks I follow on Twitter (list always growing, albeit slowly). You posts diversify and enrich my feed & learning.

Disclaimers :

Below thread has the resources listed by topic (and not by calendar days).

The below is NOT a ranking of resources. Just a listing of my current fav resources based on specific topics.

Descriptions on why I like each resource is not listed here (due to the huge #). You can find that info for most of these resources in my current pinned tweet.

How to Win (without talent or luck):

Operate in Your Zone of Genius

Your Zone of Genius is where your interests, passions and skills align.

Operating in your Zone of Genius means playing games you are uniquely well-suited to win.

Once you identify it, you can stop playing *their* games and start playing *yours*.

Adopt a Positive Sum Mentality

Want to get ahead in life? Start genuinely rooting for others to succeed.

When one of us wins, we all win—winning spreads.

If you adopt that mentality, you’ll become a magnet for the highest quality people.

Speak Up

Closed mouths don’t get fed.

A little push goes a long way. Don't sit back and wait for good things to happen.

If you want something—and you’ve put in the work for it—ask for it.

Worst case: you’re told no and nothing has changed.

Best case: it’s yours.

Play Long-Term Games

Life is the ultimate long game.

Those with low time preference play it more effectively—they happily delay gratification to allow compounding to work its magic.

In a world of people seeking instant gratification, this is a meaningful edge.

Newbie traders after learning F&O, look for paper trading platforms to practise. It's like the itch to swim after you learn swimming but end up in a baby pool. Experience of an adult pool vs a baby pool is different, likewise with the real markets & paper trading 🧵 (1/11)

Agreed, without experience, loading your trading account to the tilt and trading can be disastrous 🌋, but that does not mean you will have to paper trade forever. No matter how much you paper trade, you will never get the experience of trading (2/11)

When I talk about trading, I’m not just talking about experiencing the P&L rush. IMHO, experiencing the P&L and how it can vary in real-time is the last thing. There are multiple other things that you need to get comfortable with before diving into full-fledged trading 🏊‍♂️(3/11)

Stuff like placing limit/market order, GTT, AMO. Practising how SL-L for long & short positions works, trailing stops, figuring how margins work, M2M, T+1, T+2 settlements - the list is endless😩 with several moving parts. No paper trading platform gives you the real deal (4/11)

Here is a hack, though - instead of paper trading, try and place an actual trade on a low-value futures contract. My favourite is USD INR 💱, it costs just under 2K per contract, but gives you the whole trading experience (5/11)

How To Find Market Leaders During Corrections (Thread)

Market pullbacks and corrections are a natural process that may feel painful at first, but they set the stage for new true market leaders to emerge.

During a pullback the first thing you want to do is protect your capital and manage risk. You should rank your holdings and cut the lowest quality first.

How to grade your holdings with @mwebster1971

Protecting your capital and naturally transitioning to higher cash levels keeps you focused and objective, allowing you to begin the fun part, the treasure hunt for the next uptrend’s golden opportunities.

During a correction, institutions take the market weakness as an opportunity to add to their highest conviction holdings. This support will show up in the price charts as stocks with promise buck the overall market downtrend.

Where do you anchor the VWAP? Common question I receive and it is the topic of my @FinTwitConf talk in 2 weeks

Here are a few on $CVS daily chart
orange- YTD
Red- year high
green- swing low after year high
blue- recent swing high

and this is the weekly chart of $CVS going back to summer of 2015 all time high

How to identify the next Market Leaders (Thread)

After a basing/corrective period in the market, new merchandise will start to emerge and show itself as the market is setting up for another uptrend.

Some leaders from the previous run may continue their moves, but often it's the new leaders which will provide the most alpha.

So keep an open mind and search for the stocks that are standing out from the crowd with the strongest combination of superior price + volume action and fundamentals.

Here is how to find these next leaders:

First, market leaders by definition lead the market. They will often be making new price and relative strength highs as the market starts moving up from a potential bottom.

Keep an eye on Relative Strength Lines especially. A Relative Strength New High Before Price is a key Leadership Blueprint. For instance, $TSLA showed this characteristic before advancing 350% in 2020

The RS Line is calculated by the Price of the stock/ SPX

What to look for when the market gets volatile. (Thread)

↓

The first thing you should be on the lookout for is tight price action in leadership names. During corrective markets, liquidity is low as market participants take a step back due to uncertainty.

This leads to larger price ranges and therefore tight action is a sign that liquidity is returning to the markets.

As certainty returns, price action becomes tighter and more rational.

This type of action is much easier to operate in as a retail trader since it allows you to define risk which is always first and foremost in any trading strategy.

Another key thing to look for is multiple RS days within specific stocks and groups.

RS ( Relative Strength) Days occur when a stock outperforms the market and other stocks during a corrective period.

If you need a refresher on Relative Strength techniques check out this blog post:

Most people suck at being interesting via DMs.

The thing is - it takes a lot of time and effort to do it right.

Here are 9 frameworks to stand out from the crowd:

Pre-game:

Start on the timeline:

1. Turn on notifications for your favorite tweeters.

2. Reply with something insightful in under 10 minutes.

You will enter their radar.

Then, follow up on a specific tweet or idea via DM.

Don't make "connections", make friends:

Remember: Twitter is different.

You don't have an audience-consumer relationship like LinkedIn or TikTok.

On Twitter, it's a friend-friend relationship.

Write a catchy first line:

By the design of Twitter DMs, you don't have much real estate.

In "message requests", you only see the name of the person + the first few words.

Crazy part: I get 30 of these DMs per day.

Make sure the first line is eye-catching.

Crucial.

Be specific as f*ck:

General compliments and feedback are useless.

To stand out, ask this question to yourself:

What do you *actually* like about them or their work?

High specificity means you're genuine.

Being genuine will get you more friends.

How To Execute when Trading (Thread)

Trading is a matter of preparation, discipline and execution.

Execution is about reacting to what we see on the charts in accordance with what you have already planned out when the market is closed.

The reason we plan our actions beforehand is because our emotions are at a lower state and we are more objective at that point in time.

Many traders often have the same watchlists going into the week but when the opening bell rings and setups emerge, the traders who can execute have the best performance.

Trading execution begins with research and preparation.

Things don't get easier.

We get better.

THREAD: 10 principles to narrow your focus, conquer your fear, and overcome life's obstacles.

1/ Narrow your focus

Time is finite.

It is both our most valuable resource & the one we are most likely to waste.

Ask yourself:

Of the things I say are important to me, which am I willing to take immediate action toward?

Focus on these. Start today.

2/ Fear (Part 1)

A few years ago, after trying to convince the owner for months, I was given the opportunity to run a business.

One day she walked in and said:

"OK, you told me you could do it, it's yours. You start tomorrow."

I was scared to death.

I wanted out.

👇🏻

3/ Fear (Part 2)

I had exactly what I asked for, but fear was taking over.

What if I fail? People will laugh.

What if I succeed? Can I continue to meet these new expectations?

2 years later, we were the most profitable we'd ever been.

Don't let fear be a limiting force.

4/ No straight lines

Don't expect your journey to be linear.

We all map out in our minds the ideal path from where we are to where we want to be.

The secret lies in being able to roll with the punches.

Those who do great things adapt, overcome, and color outside the lines.

"4 Simple Rules To Protect Your Portfolio From Yourself" h/t @EconomyApp 👏👏

Excellent article for the current environment (with big drawdowns in many high growth including some quality Co.'s)

My fav parts from the article in the thread below.

"The real threat to your portfolio is not volatility. It's your ability to cope with it. As a result, your portfolio doesn't need to be protected from volatility. It needs to be protected from yourself." 👏

"Volatility refers to how dramatically the price of an investment may change. On the other hand, risk refers to the probability that an investment will underperform the market or result in a permanent loss of capital."

"In short, a stock that sees very large swings in its price over time may be a less risky investment than one that barely moves. The true risk over a long timeframe depends on the underlying business more than the sheer volatility of its share price."

"How much volatility can I tolerate?"

That's the key question that we all need to answer, but it might be the wrong way to tackle the question of temperament.

I guess there's a reason for why I❤️E-commerce so much. These lessons are as important as the returns.

Sharing with few Fintwit friends. @saxena_puru @FromValue @dhaval_kotecha @richard_chu97 @adventuresinfi @BahamaBen9 @TMFJMo @7Innovator @borrowed_ideas @investing_city

Thank god I didn't wait for consistent GAAP profitability before investing in them (like I do for most other sectors). 😂

Positions : $MELI $AMZN $BABA $SHOP $ETSY $W $SE $CHWY

Watchlist : $JD $PDD $FTCH $MWK

Haven't analyzed much : $JMIA $OZON

E-Commerce is one of those sectors where you have to understand the Business model and lot of non-GAAP (but Business driving) metrics & KPIs.

I'm not an expert by any means, but these are some of the things I broadly think about.

✔️Is the Company a Marketplace (1st party, 3rd party, both?) or a Platform, a combination?

✔️Does it handle inventory?

✔️Does it handle payments in house?

✔️What other services is it offering to Merchants (Logistics, Shipping, Credit, Marketing ...)

✔️What other services is it offering to Buyers (Digital Wallet, fast shipping, loyalty rewards....)

✔️How is the Company leveraging the Marketplace or Data Network effects?

Some pretty good Book summaries in here. h/t @mtmdev_ 👏

My fav ones from the list
✔️Poor Charlie's Almanack
✔️Zero to One
✔️The Millionaire Next Door
✔️Surely You're Joking, Mr.

1⃣ Poor Charlie's Almanack (on Charlie Munger).

Having the actual book and referencing it often is the best option, but checking out these tidbits doesn't

2⃣ Zero to One by Peter Thiel.

Great review of an excellent book that's very useful for anyone interested in

3⃣ The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas J. Stanley and William D. Danko.

This is one of the best personal finance books for a good

4⃣ Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! by Richard

"The Intelligent Investor" is a fantastic book for learning about Investor & Market psychology.

Great compilation of quotes from the book. h/t @KenFaulkenberry

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

Use this great book for those timeless principles, not for the hard & fast rules and quantitative stuff that used to work 70 yrs ago.

My fav quotes in the thread below, categorized into few sections.👇👇

✔️Discipline

Investing isn’t about beating others at their game. It’s about controlling yourself at your own game.

The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.

By developing your discipline and courage, you can refuse to let other people’s mood swings govern your financial destiny. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.

The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.

Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd.