Conviction | Patience's Threads

If cash flow is not growing / compounding - why do you expect the share price to make newer ATHs ?

Ultimately, the stock price is a function of underlying business and the quality of cash flows

"Quality vs Quantity" of cash matters. Small and Mid Pharma have outperformed Large!

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Many stock specific questions on my DM or otherwise remain unanswered. Have shared my thesis, process/framework over many months and would encourage you all to find your own process that suits your very own genome. Learn to do that hard leg-work. Put that effort. Survive. Thrive.

[Free CDMO Masterclass #18] https://t.co/208eQbYKEF

[Free Art of Investing] https://t.co/bHvUqnpiTE

[Paid IIC Dec 2020 on SeQuent] https://t.co/3iDO438Et9

[Charity fund raise on Unseen Trends in Biotechnology] https://t.co/eNi1x1qwhH

[Q&A on APIs] https://t.co/EQGz007a9S
— Conviction | Patience (@unseenvalue) July 25, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Affordable and Accessible research and innovation in an unseen olympics where many Indian companies win 🥇 and make the country proud. US enterprises are way ahead in cutting-edge Lab R&D, but they come to 🇮🇳 for scale-up and affordable manufacturing (CDMO model).

Go 🇮🇳 Go 👏👏

Watch the journey of\xa0Insulin Glargine's landmark USFDA approval for first interchangeable #biosimilar for the treatment of diabetes, a testament to #BioconBiologics' scientific excellence & robust quality comparibility data. https://t.co/JSM4LPqYdh
— Biocon (@Bioconlimited) August 1, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

If your salary / incentives are not dependent on the next quarter earnings, just relax!

No one has any idea where the stock is going in the short term. Your paid advisors definitely haven't got any idea. They're just making it up, so you stay with them.

Key word :: quarter

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Context ::

https://t.co/jKwBEs81CB

Listen from around 2:21:00

#CDMO

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@harindersnanda @FortuneIndia https://t.co/64WUswITen

Listen to this one (timestamp 2:35)
#KRAS mutation

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Top 5

The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
The Psychology of Money
The Wealth of common sense
Masterclass with super investors
100 Baggers

Which are the books in your re-read list?

Mine as Follows \U0001f447

The Psychology of Money
The Wealth of common sense
100 Baggers
Once upon a wall street
Masterclass with super investors
Atomic Habits
Richer, Wiser, Happier
— Investment Books (@InvestmentBook1) October 8, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

The comment from renowned investor was in a lighter vein. You ought to listen to the tone. He was spot on in comparing the capability and scale of two businesses, as both started around the same time - one could scale up, whilst other couldn't. Let's not read too much into it 🙂

In an example of how deeply ingrained misogyny is in the Indian system, billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala asked the management of Jubilant Pharmova: \u201cHow can we be lower than the lady? We have to beat her,\u201d in a slighting reference to @kiranshaw.
https://t.co/1dkZ9JMLLr
— Dr. Kailashnath Koppikar (@koppik) June 26, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Conviction | Patience

Asian Paints is the TCS of 'Home Improvement' space

Think in terms of ::

- Sustainability of Leadership over decades
- Sustainability of Consumption Megatrend
- Sustainability of CFO and Governance
- Quality of Balance Sheet

Rather than absolute MCap

Conviction | Patience

TCS of CDMO in the making over the next 15Y \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3

Compounding @ 25% since the IPO.

Syngene | Revisit 2030-2040 https://t.co/PHd8UEod5X
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) December 30, 2019

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@rwind78 @sahil_vi @AdityaKhemka5 @soicfinance #SeQuent is investing in enhancing the terminal value of the business. This should provide better valuations fresh entry next year. Given the fact that it was 40+ in 2018, even a 400+ by 2028 would mean a very healthy 25-26% CAGR ex dividends.

D: Invested. Add more next year.

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala asked great questions on CDMO. Made me Jubilant on Zooming😉

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Attended #Rallis AGM last week. Not seen a better AGM in the Chemicals sector. Went for nearly 3 hrs and Mr Bhaskar Bhat (Chairman) and Mr Sanjiv Lal (CEO) answered every question raised in detail.

Extract from Annual Report of #RallisIndia

Emphasis on Biotechnology in Crop Nutrition & Seeds business

Capex Plans \u20b9800 Cr next 5 yrs. \u20b9200 Cr approx in FY22, largely be funded from internal accrual

Thanks to @unseenvalue @ishmohit1 for their Webinar on Biotechnology

(1/2) pic.twitter.com/CCAS72KlN2
— Soumen Chatterjee (@Aries_Martian) June 27, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

There's more to disclose!

Waiting for business to perform before i share more as too much talking is deemed 'pump and dump' by the elite Twitter activists (who have to pay their advisory staff's salary and bills - so free knowledge sharing hurts their interests)

#Biotechnology

@unseenvalue mentioned this in his seminar https://t.co/kGS9jHuBYx
— Sishya of Highly Respected Sunaka (@JpackJack) June 19, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Research in CDMO/APIs is never a slam dunk. It may take ages to yield results. CEP filings can be lumpy as a result. As I wrote last year (link below), Hikal has been consistently sacrificing operating profits for a sustainable future. Best is ahead 🎥 🍿

https://t.co/hItmOud8Pm

#Hikal has stepped up R&D in recent years. Next few years (capex & launches) should yield superior earnings. Wish them all the luck \U0001f44d

D: invested and biased view for sure, but it was below 1x price to sales vs 12x price to sales for many chemicals and generic players. No reco!! pic.twitter.com/aqPUKbziHK
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) September 26, 2020

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

I did share this interview back in January. Reiterate my high conviction on #CDMO #APIs despite negative chatter and several obituaries 🥱

Exactly the reason we (including @punitbansal14) were bearish on players with heavy dependency on formulations

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@pushkat @LaurusLabs I don’t deserve any credit. It was your hard earned capital. You took the risk.

Business has performed due to best in class management, capabilities, capacities, patents and scientific talent that Laurus has accumulated over the years. Best is ahead 🤞🤞

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

@shuchi_nahar @AnyBodyCanFly Created this thread in 2018, as saw this coming. Covid actually accelerated the trend … next disruption will be lead by biosciences. Unseen today be seen few years out

Technology is enabling new ways of credibly accessing medical knowledge via smart phones / tablets.

Android, iOS have > 5k health / fitness apps like @Medscape, pointing to a future where the Tech. drives a part of medical knowledge and therapeutic guidance instead of a Doctor!
— Conviction | Patience (@unseenvalue) November 8, 2018

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Avoid low quality assets in a sector where price discovery has been relentless over many years. Stay with tier 1 players. Margin of safety is in business first and not the entry price. This is not valid for short term positional trades. Those are managed via strict stop losses.

Speciality vs Commodity Chemicals

Speciality - typically bespoke solutions as per customer's requirements. High complexity. This makes continous R&D and product innovation a key success factor!

Go to 2 hr 21 mins for my views on #Chemicals sector \U0001f447https://t.co/Zzx6AwHZLH
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) June 15, 2020

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@BhavaniprasadP Listen to @AdityaKhemka5

SAnngeri Authors Conviction | Patience