A simple thread to understand relationship between US Dollar and Emerging Markets.

The relationship between the performance of Emerging Market stocks and the US Dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

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The weekly return correlation between US Dollar and MSCI Emerging Market Index is -0.70 over last 10 years. Which means when US Dollar weakens, Emerging Market stocks rally and vice versa.

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As seen in this chart, the MSCI EM Index and the MSCI World Index ratio and the US Dollar Index are negatively-correlated.

When US Dollar weakens, EM index outperform World Index and when US Dollar strengthens EM index underperform World index.

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From 1995 to 2000, the USD appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by over 15% annualised.

Then from 2001 to 2010, the U.S. dollar depreciated over 18% while the MSCI EM Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 14% annualised.

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Then from 2011 to 2020, the U.S. dollar appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 7% annualized.

Overall, from 1995 to 2020, this relationship has a correlation of -0.35.

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Let’s learn the divergence.

Whenever I teach, my moto is to make u master in that. U should get something new to learn even though when u already know that thing.

Divergence:- When price is not synchronised with the oscillator then the divergens occurs means

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Means price is making higher high but oscillator doesn’t
or
price making lower low but oscillator doesn’t
means there is divergence as price is not synchronised with the oscillator.
Basically there are two kinds of divergence
-> Regular or classic.
-> Hidden divergence

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A bullish divergence occurs when prices fall to a new low while an oscillator fails to reach a new low. This situation demonstrates that bears are losing power, and that bulls are ready to control the market again—often a bullish divergence marks the end of a downtrend.

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Whereas Bearish divergence occurs when prices reaches to a new high while an oscillator fails to reach a new high. This situation demonstrates that bulls are losing power, and that bears are ready to control the market again—often a bearish divergence marks a halt uptrend.

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Generally bullish divergence works better than bearish divergence.
bullish divergence provides you an opportunity to buy the stocks at bottom with very high risk to reward ratio.
Both divergence comes under regular or classic divergence.

Best FREE website for FNO Heatmap - ICICI DIRECT

https://t.co/honvUA9lmx

Advantages:
1. Quantitative Analysis in one place
2. Easy to find stocks where action taking place
3. Find the exact price levels at which OI is being added.

(1/5)

For example, Nifty Heatmap Can easily scan for

1. Long Build up (Price up and OI up)
2. Long Unwinding (Price down and OI down)
3. Short Buildup (Price down and OI up)
4. Short Covering (Price up and OI down)

(2/5)

1. 15 mins Built up can check in any stock
2. Easy to find Intraday Bullish and bearish trend
3. Eg of Bajaj Auto who was up 9% on Friday. Long Built up had started in the morning itself.
4. Shows the quantities also which are being traded in those intervals.

(3/5)

5. There are 25 time intervals available everyday.
6. If a stock has to go up or down a lot it will be heavily dominated in these time intervals.
7. Bajaj Auto had 14 times long built up on Friday.
8. IndusInd Bank had 13 short built ups on Friday. IndusInd fell 3.5%.

(4/5)

Some people5 check the last 45 mins data of the day too to predict the gap opening for the next day.
Data gives them additional conviction, especially if huge contracts addition is taking place.

(5/5)

---------------------------------------------------------

All the books (all 34 of them) I read this year and a one-line review on them!

My last thread for 2020 🧵

#Books #Reading

Let's get started 👇

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Alibaba - The house that Jack Ma Built

Rejected 10 times in Harvard, rejected in 30 jobs, first 2 businesses didn’t work out.

This book is extremely motivating as it tells how a man from humble beginnings built Alibaba into one of the largest internet companies

2/n

The Peaceful investor & Company Analysis Volumes 1, 2, 3, and 4 (covers 40 stocks in total) by @drvijaymalik

After reading these, you learn the fundamental analysis process completely!

@drvijaymalik is rightly called the Doctor of stocks, he is the best in fundamentals!

3/n

Ode To Geniuses

The book discusses philosophers and poets from the Renaissance era - Epictetus, Euclid, Horace, Nikola Tesla, and a few more

It's fascinating to note how they started out and the way they ended up in their respective fields to make a big mark!

4/n

Beyond the End

This is about unfinished masterpieces of art -This is also very interesting as the stories of incompletion and the artists behind them grip you completely!

Note - This book + the one before are private publications, they were gifted to me by @Sharad9Dubey

A THREAD:

7 FREE OPTION TRADING COURSES FOR BEGINNERS.

Been getting lot of dm's from people telling me they want to learn option trading and need some recommendations.

Here I'm listing the resources every beginner should go through to shorten their learning curve.

(1/10)

1st Course - TASTYTRADE

This channel on YouTube is a goldmine for people wanting to learn about options both basics and advanced. By far the best and the most popular channel out there amongst option traders.

2nd Course - OPTION ALPHA

This channel is also pretty well known amongst option traders and they have laid out the path to generate consistent income trading options.

3rd Course - PROJECT OPTION

Lengthy videos explaining the benefit of trading options and has gone through

4th Course - TASTYTRADE

Another crash course on options by tastytrade. Different strategies have been compared while some focus on trade management is also