In June 2016, no one knew about No Deal AKA the WTO Option. Almost no one was calling for it. I had published something in 2015 about what would happen in a No Deal situation. It was not until June 2016 that people picked up on it and the FT phoned me. No one understood. THREAD

In June 2016, a lot of people didn’t expect Cameron to resign.

In the immediate aftermath of the vote, judging by their ‘soft’ responses, Vote Leave leader Boris Johnson and Vote Leave architect Daniel Hannan didn’t expect & didn't understand/foresee the radicalisation of their own side.

No one expected all Vote Leave figures to basically scarper and leave the EEA behind during summer 2016.

No one expected Northern Ireland to grow into the enormous issue it became.

England with its brexit and its inept reactions have fucked the life of 11,000 hauliers MOST of which whom will never take a job delivering to england for at least a year. I have listened to 20 I know

"we were pushed to places, we had no choice, argument was met by threat of arrest. We had no food, no dignity, we were forced back into cabins if we tried to leave. They had dogs and tasers. "

Not one driver blames anyone but the british. many have been talking to their national governments and most have been told they will receive compensation.

They are saying "we are told to be in a driver zoo, no facilities, afraid, no lights, who is around my truck ? this country is like Russia.

These are the questions, big and small, that I will be asking about the shape and quality of a Brexit deal when the text is out:

(A long thread)

On manufactured goods:

1. Does the agreement provide zero-tariff and zero-quota access on all goods?

Where to find the answer: Chapter on Tariffs

2. Under what circumstances might tariffs be imposed in the future?

Where to find the answer: Chapters on Trade Remedies, on Subsidies, and Trade and Labour, and Trade and Environment

3. Is there “mutual recognition of conformity assessment”? If so, what products does it cover?

Chapter on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and relevant annexes

4. What are the agreed “rules of origin” requirements?

Chapter on Rules of Origin

Here’s a fundamental Brexit truth I don’t think we’ve discussed enough: the reason why Brexit has been on the front pages for so much of the past few years doesn’t actually have that much to do with Brexit. Let me explain:

Of course the UK’s relationship with the EU is of enormous economic, social & legal importance, past, present and future. Of course the trade deal matters, as will immigration rules and all the rest. But the real, real reason Brexit has been such a big deal is something else:

Brexit is first and foremost a story about the Tory party, which happens to be the party of government. Brexit mattered these past four and a half years because it deposed two prime ministers. It decided elections. It was an issue of immense political significance.

Yes, clearly underlying this there was economics and chewy discussion about N Ireland and the UK’s place in the world. But much as I’d like (as an economics/policy geek) to pretend THAT was why it dominated the news agenda, in reality it was big news because it could fell PMs

That political soap opera has so dominated the front pages that the (to me at least) much more interesting story about Brexit itself has been rather drowned out. What is that story? That the UK is heading towards what, a few years ago, everyone would have called a “hard Brexit”