BC BREXIT
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BREAK: ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also donโ€™t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread

@FT So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a ยฃ200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc.. /2

https://t.co/aFzelRLlEX
@FT Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than ยฃ450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3
@FT So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over ยฃ194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...ยฃ33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for ยฃ33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4
@FT Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk
@FT @NAOorguk So here is @PortOfDover EU Exit boss Tim Reardon explaining to the Lords EU Cmme why they needed to double the number of French kiosks from five to 10 - because we'll soon be facing intrusive new checks; stamps in passport etc. Oh joy. /6

https://t.co/6989KZPHqQ
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover The Cabinet Office have yet to explain their thinking fully on why Dover didn't get the money - or why they didn't fine more cash when it was clear the Fund was more than twice over-subscribed. But ministers have explained how they whittle down the field. See this:/7
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover But none of that explains really why a government that is merrily building borders doesn't appear to want to pay for them to be built...surely in the case of Dover, when everyone is sitting fuming in queues this summer...the extra five booths might have paid off?! /8
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover But his is MUCH bigger than Dover. This is about booting up port infrastructure across the UK to deal with those extra 215m customs declarations, the new processes Ireland-GB, the expected increase in 'short sea' crossings to Harwich and the Humber. It's #Brexit made flesh! /9
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover It's fair to say there is a LOT of grumbling out there today as these awards were circulated.

Portsmouth got ยฃ17.1m - which is about ยฃ8m short of what they asked for, I am told. /10
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover Their MP @StephenMorganMP is fuming. He says the money falls "far short" of what they need and is less than "the money mandated by the governmentโ€™s own border operating model" - I can see the Govt getting some heat on all this in coming days/weeks. /11
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP This leaves ports facing a real dilemma as the July 1 2021 deadline approaches...do the go ahead and build scaled back, inadequate infrastructure...or seek more money or what? See this from @mikesellersPIP the boss of @PortsmouthPort /12
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort And I can tell you that dilemma is NOT confined to Portsmouth.

Humber ports like Purfleet & Killinghome that deal with 'trailer' freight from the EU on short-sea crossings also have lots to do. Holyhead must deal with huge new Irish freight issues etc. /13
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort Some got nothing, others took an across the board haircut 33% haricut on what they did get.

@timgmorris Chief Exec UK Major Ports Group says they're "very disappointed that the allocations of funding are so late in the day and significantly short of what many ports require."/14
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort @timgmorris His group is now calling on the Government "to work urgently with the sector to review funding levels and timingsโ€...because tickety-tock the new border hurtles towards us (exact details still tbc...checks date...16 Dec...mops brow) /15
The point is that everyone, I think, knows it is going to be pretty choppy logistically few months - and then again, with a 'second cliff-edge' in July 1 2021 for goods coming EU-GB, so it seems odd to me Govt isn't chucking sufficient wedge at this one. /16
Because if & when the blame game begins over port congestion, I think I have a fair bet about where the finger will be pointing - at least from the point of view of a pretty sore UK ports industry today. ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš’๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? ๐Ÿ˜ฌ Stay with me. 1/


So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2

It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4


So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly โ€” there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšš๐Ÿš›๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจemail from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govtโ€™s ยฃ200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of โ€œhuge shortageโ€ of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF


He adds: โ€œExport from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.โ€ ...remember @BrandonLewis โ€˜no borderโ€™ tweet ๐Ÿ™„/2


He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesnโ€™t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3


This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4


In the next week or two weโ€™ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5
FINANCE
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The UK refusing to give full diplomatic status the EU's mission in London is baffling at at time when @BorisJohnson is trying to connect with @JoeBiden - because it recalls what Trump administration did to the EU ambassador back in 2019. Stay with

@JoeBiden The spat has been going for a while - we reported it in May, when the #Brexit trade talks were getting testy and - I assumed - it was the UK seeking a bit of leverage as the talks progressed. But we have a deal...and still no deal on the EU

@JoeBiden Essentially the UK government wants to treat the @EUdelegationUK as a "international organisation based in London" - and not accord it full diplomatic status, as almost every other country in the world does, including the United States /3

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK Indeed when EU formed it's External Action Service (EEAS) the UK supported the idea that EU representatives should be full ambassadors - a fact reflected in the Treaty of Lisbon which we signed - and which reflected on fact EU had a currency, made laws etc. /4

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK It took some time for everyone to recognise this, but after @BarackObama came to power in 2016 even the USA did the same....then along came Donald Trump and in 2019 surreptitiously downgraded the status of the EU ambassador @D0Sullivan /4
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿšš๐Ÿšš๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿšจ

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are โ€˜in a messโ€™ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3


@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked ยฃ200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Howard Goodall
Howard Goodall
@Howard_Goodall
Dear fellow musicians, performers, technicians etc. Hereโ€™s a thread about how our lives are going to change re touring/working in the EU in 50 days time. Think of it as a kind of Bad News Advent calendar. Here goes 1/

First things first, youโ€™ll need a passport with at least 6 months left on it. And youโ€™ll need full travel/third party/health insurance, since if you get ill or have an accident every penny of your care will have to be paid for 2/

To work or do a gig youโ€™re going to need a work visa, just like you do for the USA. But hereโ€™s the thing. Work permits & visas and the conditions attached are a matter not for the EU but for the member states themselves 3/

Yes, every member state controls who comes in and who doesnโ€™t and what the rules will be for work and residency. Itโ€™s almost as if the Brexiters have been lying about this ALL ALONG. EU members CONTROL THEIR OWN BORDERS 4/

So youโ€™ll need to get a work permit for every country youโ€™re intending to work or gig in and the rules are often different, as are the rules on eg taxation of that work (eg Spain has a withholding tax, France does not) 5/
EU , BREXIT
George Riddell
George Riddell
@GeorgeMRiddell
1/ Quick thread. At the end of the third week of Brexit being "done", I can only say that I'm exhausted.

Immediate pressures on companies who have been trading goods have been on grappling with all of the new customs and regulatory requirements.


2/ It's clear that agrifood businesses have been the hardest hit due to the SPS checks and other requirements.

But for others, the shift from a distributor model to importer/exporter has been a challenge. This hasn't been helped by certain IT system not working as planned.

3/ So are these "teething problems"? Companies are grappling with the new systems & formalities.

Some are, but many others aren't.

Worth noting that freight volumes are still below average. But stockpiles are running low, coming weeks are going to be interesting.

4/ Two issues that are immediately facing many businesses that won't be addressed by sorting this teething period.

First, many businesses are facing the largest shift in their cost base in a generation.

5/ This comes from the cost of dealing with the customs procedures, upgrading IT systems to manage the new requirements, setting up European operating centres to comply with regulatory requirements, new immigration costs, the list goes on.
BREXIT , BREXIT
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john milbank
john milbank
@johnmilbank3
This very short article by Jeremy Cliffe is the best thing I have ever read on Brexit and the EU. It pivots on the contrast between Delorsโ€™ and Thatcherโ€™s authentically provincial Christian visions and suggests the battle in Britain between the two is not over.


Thatcher: Protestant believer in the totally free market and absolutely sovereign centralised nation state. Delors: Catholic believer in third way personalism, corporatism and federalism. Individualism versus relational love. Heterodoxy versus Orthodoxy.

The article useful gives the lie to the idea that the Catholic vision of the EU has altogether vanished even though it is weakened. Delors wanted a social dimension to the free market and single currency and yet lexiteers laughably insist the EU is more neoliberal than the U.K.!

Subsidiary federalism is a doctrine of democracy and human fraternity. State sovereignty is a doctrine of naked power. It is a face of Antichrist. Leviathan.

Those combined that democracy can only be inside a single state fail to power just how much of private law and evermore so is necessarily international. Thus if political institutions donโ€™t extend over borders there can be no democracy.
BREXIT
Nick Marro
Nick Marro
@nickm4rro
1/ Lots of good analysis out there on why the EU-China CAI is a bad decision in the context of Xinjiang, transatlantic partnerships, etc. But I also think that even the trade/econ benefits of the CAI look quite limited. Thread:

2/ It highlights, as a win, that Chinaโ€™s preservation of existing liberalizations. Thatโ€™s positive, but not really a big problem; the bigger issue is stagnation, where reform pledges have failed to materialize after years/decades of promises. Great example is in the FDI openings,


3/ which are highlighted to include cloud, auto, fin services etcโ€”all areas of EU/MNC interest. Thing is, these openings arenโ€™t new. China has begun opening auto/finance since 2018/19, while the 50% cap on cloud services has remained unchanged since 2015 (or before if we consider


4/ WTO ascension commitments vs the 2015 Telecom Catalogue, but thatโ€™s for another day). So these are existing openings that are repackaged as โ€œwins.โ€ More critical issue beyond FDI caps is around licensing issuance, which still big problem. Arguably some more significance in

5/ R&D and health? Not an expert, but the FDI conditions (eg hospitals only in certain cities) are limiting, while R&D could be complicated by data/info controls. Itโ€™s also unclear how existing tech transfer prohibitions exceed existing protections in the foreign investment law,
BREXIT
Daniel Lambert (Wines). \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7\U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0077\U000e006c\U000e0073\U000e007f\U0001f347\U0001f942
Daniel Lambert (Wines)...
@DanielLambert29
Over the past 15 days I have not only been running my company as normal but I have been faced with largest threat to its future since it began in 1992. This is #Brexit & here is my thread on just how bad things are getting. 1/26

Six months ago my business started to prepare for Brexit. We obtained the following licences and accreditations JUST to maintain the status quo. EORI number, RORO badge for Chief, GBRC number, GBWK number, we already had ARWS and DAN accounts. 2/26

All of this took nearly five months a lot of form filling but on the 9th December this was all in place. So I would say whilst we knew Brexit would be a car crash we did not know it was going to be a multiple pile up in the fog with fatalities. 3/26

On January 4th I returned to work being wise enough to have stockpiled just enough so that if we had a bumpy ride in January we would have enough stock to last until February. 4/26

I should add this took a considerable amount of cash flow and management to do this during a lockdown/ pandemic combined with Xmas sales. But we managed. 5/26
BREXIT

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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/OK, data mystery time.

This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE

That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.

Let's check this number.

2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".

The report is available here:

3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.

The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.


4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.

Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A

It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.

That estimate is from 2012.

5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.

I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
SOCIETY
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
THE UNTOLD TALE OF THE LESSER KNOWN WARRIORS:JOGRAJ GURJAR & RAMPYARI GURJAR AND HOW DID THEY DEFEAT THE CRUELEST ISLAMIC INVADER, TIMUR LANG.

Timur Lang, was the founder of Timurid Empire. He was born in April 1336 CE, somewhere in central asia.


During his reign, he conquered Persia, Egypt, Central Asia and emerged as the most powerful and heinous ruler. He was a religious fanatic like the rest of the Islamic invaders who tried to invade India.

Timur Lang decided to invade India in 1398 as he heard about India's splendid wealth and had a desire to conquer India which his ancestor Genghis Khan couldn't do.


After Firoz Shah's demise in1388, Delhi Sultanate was in a state of political turmoil.During this time, Timur sent his grandson Pir Mohammad to attack Indian front. He invaded Multan&was able to defeat Iqbal Khan's brother but when he met with resistance,he asked help from Timur.


Iqbal Khan secured his hold on Delhi under Muhammad Tughluq after Firoz Shah died.
Timur provided the required back-up to his grandson with 100000 men approx. Timur sacked and plundered all the cities coming in his way &later in October 1398 reunited with his grandson.
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Kate Julian
Kate Julian
@katejulian
1/ Something strange is happening with peopleโ€™s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi


2/ This phenomenonโ€”Iโ€™m calling it a Sex Recessionโ€”really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ Whatโ€™s happening isnโ€™t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.


4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parentsโ€”which, itโ€™s safe to say, isnโ€™t great for oneโ€™s sex life.

5/ But I also found other explanations, each with profound implications. The first, unsurprisingly, has to do with internet enticements. Netflix and other online entertainment may be substituting for sex.
SOCIETY
Julien \U0001f332
Julien ๐ŸŒฒ
@julien
1/ there is this sense when you are young that your accomplishments need to be a list of things that seem impressive to others. A list of several items you did.

This isn't actually right, so here is another suggestion.

2/ I remember being 26 and writing about reading 52 books a year. I wrote blog posts about it. They got copied. It became "a thing." Now it's in Twitter bios. It looks impressive but it's insanely useless and I shouldn't have done it.

3/ what I should have known at that time is that only young idiots like myself, with no accomplishments, find list of tiny achievements impressive. Anyone who has actually done anything of substance doesn't gaf

4/ what is actually difficult, and worthwhile, instead is to do ONE single thing for a very, very long time. It's much harder and much rarer and results in outlier outcomes much more often.

Of course you can find this out too late if you are chasing the dragon of Ted talks etc

5/ if I had only worked on a startup for a year, I would've gotten nowhere, the same way that if you lift for 3 months, it achieves nothing. Everything good in life comes from perseverance, but at the beginning, you're just like "I need to be somebody!!!"
LIFE
Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) The Whitaker scandal is deepening, as it becomes clear that Sessions' Russia recusal was a coordinated sham and his firing an act of obstructionโ€”and that his replacement is a White House plant inside the Mueller probe. I hope you'll retweet and read on for more details.


1/ From 2014-17 Whitaker worked for World Patent Marketingโ€”which during his tenure defrauded consumers out of $26 million and was successfully prosecuted by the feds. His involvement in the scam confirmed he had loose morals and that the feds would never want to employ him again.

2/ Despite the seeming impossibility of a man with Whitaker's background getting a job at Justice ever againโ€”he'd been found to have used his former title as a US attorney to fraudulently threaten consumers with valid complaints with criminal penaltiesโ€”Whitaker found an opening.

3/ Within 60 days of parachuting out of World Patent Marketing as it was being fined $26 million by the feds, Whitaker was working for CNN and telling a fellow attorney panelist that his purpose in working for CNN was to get noticed by one manโ€”Donald Trumpโ€”and thereby get a job.

4/ Whitaker spent his time at CNN making ludicrous statements about the Mueller probe: there was no obstruction or collusion, he said; Mueller had no authority to look into any aspect of Trump's finances or to subpoena him, he said. All the while, he hoped Trump was watching him.
POLITICS