BC BREXIT
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It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

 @FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson The last three years established that a technological north-south border isn't happening - technologically OR politically.

And the UK will not agree to the strictures of “no regulatory divergence” that underpinned May's decision to say in the EU single market for goods./6
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson Which leaves everyone - London, Brussels, Dublin and Belfast - stuck with this unsatisfactory arrangement that needs to be made to work in as unobtrusive and politically sensitive way as possible - everyone's grievances to one side, which is stupidly easy to say, I know /7
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson But it does need to *work* - that means the border needs to function properly as @MarosSefcovic has said - or you start to create the conditions for the very same north-south border that we're all trying to avoid here. /8
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson @MarosSefcovic The UK does recognise this need for functionality - even if its behaviour last year by unilaterally threatening to break the terms of the deal - has raised doubts on the EU side about London's real commitment to the deal. /9
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson @MarosSefcovic But at the same time, if the EU keeps on treating the GB-NI border like the Dover-Calais border and as a 'test' of UK probity and trustworthiness, there is a risk of a downward spiral that, in the absence of alternatives, leads nowhere good /10
It was interesting listening to NI logistics operators this week talking to @CommonsNIAC about how processes could be simplified and streamlined whilst still giving the EU the data/certainty they need /11

https://t.co/Eurz92g0EG
@CommonsNIAC This is v technical stuff, but it is surely worth exploring more deeply - in the light of the 'unique circumstances' of Northern Ireland how both sides can - to coin a bitter phrase - have their cake and eat it here /12
@CommonsNIAC In his letter @MarosSefcovic says that functionality is a "prerequisite" for further easements and facilitations - but it is important that the EU really means that, and can approach this in a outcomes-based, not legalistic way. /13
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic The problem - as we all know - is that this deeply unsatisfactory deal really requires trust and good relations on both sides. And the reality is that that is sadly lacking - @michaelgove dinging Brussels for its "integrationist theology" (and EU return fire) all symptomatic /14
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove On the upside, it seems that @MarosSefcovic and @michaelgove did manage to lower the temperature last night over their London Deliveroo dinner party and seek "workable solutions" /15

https://t.co/5vRgzIqKjP
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove UK officials are pretty guarded in their optimism - this is far from sorted - BUT the willingness of the EU side to engage/listen with NI business is taken as a positive, both in Whitehall but also in NI as @MichaelAodhan tells me in that news report. /16
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan The danger, talking to folk in Brussels, is that France, Germany are failing to separate out the Protocol form the rest of the deal - and are determined to keep both London (and Dublin) "honest" here, and in the process are deepening a mess they don't really understand/17
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan Of course, they might "understand" better if @michaelgove @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson all did more to settle the relationship that, on many fronts, looks testy - and likelier to get testier as more and more realities of the Canada-style trading start to land /18
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson There needs to be a really collective effort not to make Northern Ireland the casualty of this post-divorce feuding. If the border can bed in, then there are even some upsides - ask the NI shellfish operators, they can send to Europe, no depuration required ;) /19
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson Anyway. On the upside, this week has ended in a better place than it began, and that - in #Brexit world - is surely progress. Fingers crossed it continues.

Good weekend all. ENDS
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson PS...if you got this far, here is the #Brexit Briefing in question

https://t.co/Y8dBxZOcsi

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here
GOVERNMENT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2



They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3

@EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4

As one EU official puts it: “You can’t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. It’s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Good to see @Marthakearney on @BBCr4today taking @pritipatel to task over the numbers of lorries in Dover - now 1,500 in Stack (M20) and Manston airfield combined - rather more than 170 that @BorisJohnson said yesterday, baffling haulage groups /1

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson She won't say whether lorry drivers will have to take a PCR test (long-winded, requires RNA extraction etc. 24-48hrs) rather than much faster (and less sensitive) lateral flow test. Short Strait will struggle to operates with PCR tests. You'd need one yesterday for tomorrow! /2

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson Because of the delays that have empty lorries already stuck in the queues, in an earlier interview British Retail Consortium @the_brc Andrew Opie said fresh food shortages would occur within days because lorries couldn't get back to Spain etc to reload /3

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson @the_brc Haulage experts like @RHADuncanB are always at pains to explain that the lorries at Dover (and GB-IE, for that matter) are flowing in a continuous cycle. More than 85% are from EU countries. So if you block one side, or artery the whole system starts to grind to a halt/4

@BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson @the_brc @RHADuncanB This episode has been a bit of a teaching moment, exposing the canard that the UK can unilaterally "take back control of its borders". It can't. Borders are membranes. Traffic flows in both directions. Actions by one side impact the other - as French move has demonstrated. /5
POLITICS
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: 🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚚🍤🐟🚢🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨 Building of Brexit border posts faces delays via...industry calling for delay to July 1 U.K. #brexit border roll out - my latest via ⁦@FinancialTimes⁩

This goes back to last year, when UK gov got £430m of bids for new Border Control Posts and only funded £194m worth - and those bids that won took a 33pc 'haircut'. Result, everyone unhappy - those that got nothing, and those that won, got not enough

The result is that ports looking to build BCPs to accommodate new border coming in from July 1 say they haven't got enough money. They want either delays to border on July 1, or flexible implementation. /3

So as @timgmorris of @UKMajorPorts group tells me: “We need urgent action from the government to show flexibility either on the July 1 deadline or what is required on that date....or accept potentially serious implications for traffic flows this summer." /4

@timgmorris @UKMajorPorts As @richard_bpa of @britishports says “There is now a real danger that customs infrastructure won’t be ready by July in some ports and we’re urging ministers to take a pragmatic approach to ensure that goods can continue moving at those locations,” /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: 🚨🚨🇫🇷🇬🇧🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🇫🇷🇬🇧🚢🚢🚢🚨🚨 The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also don’t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread


So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a £200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc..

Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than £450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3

So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over £194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...£33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for £33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4


Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Thomas Sampson
Thomas Sampson
@thom_sampson
A few thoughts on how Brexit is likely to affect the UK economy in 2021 - with the caveat that much remains uncertain 1/

Most important change on January 1st will be higher trade costs due to creation of UK-EU customs border plus restrictions on what services trade is allowed

Costs from regulatory divergence likely to be at least as important as border costs in the long run, but not immediately 2/

Expect disruption & delays at the border for the first few months

However, I do not anticipate shortages of essential goods, as imports can be expedited if needed, e.g. air freight, priority customs processing 3/

Delays will become shorter and more predictable as firms learn what paperwork is needed and customs capacity improves. Important for just-in-time supply chains where predictability is more important than speed 4/

Contrary to government claims, many costs will be permanent:
- Red tape, e.g. need for customs workers wastes resources & lowers productivity
wasting resources
- Tariffs (if no deal)
- Rules of origin (if deal)
- Lost market access for services

https://t.co/07wNehNn7z 5/
BREXIT
Phil Syrpis
Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.

We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14

The reality is that we cannot.

Unless we agree to certain standards and rules (and there is scope to argue about which rules), there will be borders, and checks, and tariffs. 2/

There will always be a relationship between rights (eg tariff free access to EU/UK markets) and responsibilities (eg abiding by level-playing field commitments). 3/

A 'good' outcome for the UK, in the Govt's view, would involve access gains (eg fewer border checks) without corresponding obligations (or with weak, or difficult-to-enforce obligations). 4/

The chances of this sort of 'good' outcome are low. The EU looks likely, in the face of the threats in the Internal Market Bill and now the Finance Bill, to insist on rigorous governance provisions. [Also, such provisions are the foundation of the single market.] 5/
ALL , BREXIT
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Simon Usherwood
Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Your regular reminder that Brexit is going badly because the UK has still to decide what the purpose of leaving the EU is

1/

#EUref came about as piece of party mgt by Cameron, rather than as culmination of considered and structured debate about UK's place in the world

2/

Yes, we talked a lot (A LOT) about 'Europe' and the EU, but primarily as a function of lots of other things

A touchstone of dissent, if you will (h/t @PaulAdamTaggart)

3/

Referendum campaigns on both sides were simply about getting people to vote their way, not efforts to set out settled plans of What Comes Next

"Vote for us and everything will be dandy" is not a plan

4/

That might have been alright if post-vote there had been a national discussion on how to proceed in an inclusive manner, but instead the political logic pointed to trying to capture the meaning of it all to serve particular agendas

All very majoritarian, as per

5/
BREXIT
Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
FELIXSTOWE, England (Reuters) -

In just one month of post-Brexit trading, British logistics expert Jon Swallow has seen exports dive, prices rise and customers so desperate that he is practically offering a counselling service.

Swallow is one of thousands of freight forwarders and customs brokers based around Britain’s biggest ports who have described the overnight introduction of a full customs border as akin to the country placing economic sanctions on itself.

Britain’s New Year’s Eve departure from the European Union’s orbit after 47 years of membership means exporters must now provide customs and safety declarations, health checks and rules of origin details to trade with its biggest partner.

We are now at a disadvantage to people trading within the EU,” Swallow, a co-director of Jordon Freight, told Reuters in his office next to the vast cranes that tower over Felixstowe docks, Britain’s biggest container port, on the south east coast of England.

“We’re a very fast-paced business, but now we’re just like walking through mud. There’s just paperwork everywhere.”
Those companies that trade goods between Britain and the bloc are paying a price, particularly small firms.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
BREXIT

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