BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1/ Lots of good analysis out there on why the EU-China CAI is a bad decision in the context of Xinjiang, transatlantic partnerships, etc. But I also think that even the trade/econ benefits of the CAI look quite limited. Thread:

 2/ It highlights, as a win, that China’s preservation of existing liberalizations. That’s positive, but not really a big problem; the bigger issue is stagnation, where reform pledges have failed to materialize after years/decades of promises. Great example is in the FDI openings,
3/ which are highlighted to include cloud, auto, fin services etc—all areas of EU/MNC interest. Thing is, these openings aren’t new. China has begun opening auto/finance since 2018/19, while the 50% cap on cloud services has remained unchanged since 2015 (or before if we consider
4/ WTO ascension commitments vs the 2015 Telecom Catalogue, but that’s for another day). So these are existing openings that are repackaged as “wins.” More critical issue beyond FDI caps is around licensing issuance, which still big problem. Arguably some more significance in
5/ R&D and health? Not an expert, but the FDI conditions (eg hospitals only in certain cities) are limiting, while R&D could be complicated by data/info controls. It’s also unclear how existing tech transfer prohibitions exceed existing protections in the foreign investment law,
6/ nor how China will provide equal access to standards setting; that this keeps coming up in intl discussions/domestic policy pledges means it’s a longstanding issue, and it’s unclear how the CAI addresses structural issues underpinning that (eg forced IP localization). The lang
7/ around SOEs/subsidy disclosure is disappointing, considering how important an ask this was for the EU. W/o more detail on dispute resolution, unclear how SOEs can be forced to change here, especially bc things like procurement are conducted via back channels that disadvantage
8/ MNCs, or in the case of ICT, are swayed by domestic policy pledges (eg 安全可控) that come from political/diplomatic problems, not commercial issue. Tied to this, the fact that subsidy disclosure doesn’t *touch* the industrial sector avoids a huge problem area that now
9/ underpins a lot of retaliatory trade policy/pushback against globalization. Finally, if we look at the commitments on labour and environ, benchmark is again not backsliding—but what about *existing* issues around forced labour/XJ? Pledging to not allow labour standards
10/ to deteriorate further is from a very low base. Commitment towards working to ratify ILO conventions is also very different from being forced to do so. Finally, on enforcement and dispute resolution—the most key parts of any deal!!—the commitments seem similarly disappointing
11/ but we still need details on how this will work. Precedent w/ the US shows that China sees any framework for regular monitoring (and, potentially, punitive action) as a violation of sovereignty. Suggesting that enforcement might lack teeth. Overall, CAI looks like it slightly
12/ moves the needle on some issues, while leaving many others untouched. We still need to wait for final text to be released in order to do deeper analysis, but this suggests CAI will have a hard time going through European Parliament for ratification. (end)

More from Brexit

Ed Birkett
Ed Birkett
@ed_birkett
What's in the EU-UK Brexit deal on energy?

It may be Boxing day, but I've had a quick look

Title VIII: Energy is the key section (page 156 onwards)

▶️ Standard stuff on commitment to competition, unbundling and customer choice

▶️ UK Capacity Market no longer needs to try to integrate overseas Capacity providers & vice versa

(Article ENER.6, Clause 3, page. 160)

2/


▶️ Existing "exemptions" for selected interconnectors will continue to apply.

This means that these interconnectors can continue to sell capacity rights ahead of time, rather than all through close to real-time markets.

(Article ENER.11, page 162)

3/


▶️ No network charges on individual interconnector transactions (as now)

▶️ But, UK cannot participate in EU procedures for capacity allocation and congestion management (more on this later)

(Article ENER.13, page 163)

4/


Gas trading: looks like the UK stays in the existing PRISMA gas trading platform.

Not my specialist area, but is this because PRISMA isn't an EU institution (unlike electricity market coupling)?

https://t.co/5GQJtZDpTa

(Article ENER. 15, page 164)

5/
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John Lichfield
John Lichfield
@john_lichfield
Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch “all the fish that it wants ” in UK waters in 5 years’ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overall… the deal falls far short of the exaggerated “sea of opportunity” promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years – is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it won’t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

First…the length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says “2026 onwards” In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12
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Steve Peers
Steve Peers
@StevePeers
As the transition period ends, the #BrexitDeal applies from tomorrow. But there's also a parallel significant legal change - most of the rest of the withdrawal agreement starts to apply. A thread on the legal issues in the rest of that agreement.


The citizens' rights provisions of the withdrawal agreement (on EU citizens who moved to the UK, and UK citizens who moved to the EU, before the end of the transition period) start to apply.

Annotation and detailed analysis of those provisions here:

After today, UK citizens newly moving to the EU, or EU citizens newly moving to the UK, are in principle governed by national law (partly harmonised by the EU, on the EU side).

However, the #BrexitDeal contains some provisions on visas for service providers.

The #BrexitDeal also refers to the matching unilateral decisions of the EU and UK to waive a visa requirement for short tourist visits. Analysis of the EU law on that issue here:

UK citizens resident in the EU on the basis of the withdrawal agreement (or who move to EU in future) should be covered by the EU law on long-term resident non-EU citizens, which provides for a limited form of mobility between Member States. Analysis here:
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...

1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them

2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc

3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise

4 - Brexiteers show even the vaguest hint of interest in the views of those who continue to want strong ties with the EU, rather then repeating over and over again, to even the vaguest hint of criticism, "you lost suckers, get over it"

5 - Remainers, rejoiners and the like stop talking quite so much about how the 2016 referendum was stolen from them, which is becoming both history and suggests that 17 odd million people were conned

(NB not confident on the last two)
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seanwhelanRTE
seanwhelanRTE
@seanwhelanRTE
Prof Valsamis Mitsilegas tells NI committee that the agreement on JHA is dynamic, as EU values UK inputs, and EU law will evolve over time, and value of system to UK will mean adaptation

Prof Steve Peers of Esssex Uni. Tells NI cttee that deal keeps 3/4 of previous arrangement, missing quarter is SIS II and some other capabilities in data exchange. Says quite a lot has been preserved by two sides, esp compared to no deal situation

Simon Hoare MP - is the deal adequate to challenge of policing NI, and IRL: Dr Gemma Davies (Northumbria law school). Says Data Protection issues v complex, PSNI/AGS co-operation might be better facilitated by specific agreement (not going beyond EU agreement, but clarifying)

Colin Murray tells NI cttee that Norway/Iceland extradition arrangements with EU put in place 10 years ago, now working in ways comparable to EU arrest warrant. Operational issues get easier to fix over time.

Colin Murray says there are break clauses in the TCA, and the police element could break down in a relatively short period (in theory).
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#Thread
An interesting story of Kamala Devi hazarika for all Sanatanis...🙏

A Xtian missionary was sent to Assam for the promotion of religion. His name was Cruz. He came across to one the boys from an influential family in Assam to teach him English.
@noconversion

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The p@stor slowly began to study the house and he learned that the boy's grandmother was the most influential person in the house. So he thought 'Corrupting the grandmother's mind can make the whole family Xtian as well as the whole village.

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The p@stor began to tell Grandma the stories of how J€$u$ cured leprosy of lepers, how He gave sight to the blind, etc..But after listening to him, the strong Sanatani grandmother said. A stone turned into a living woman (Ahalya) for our Rama when he touched the stone.

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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
SRI KANTESH HANUMANTHA, KADARAMANDALAGI (KAR)
#bharatmandir

KANTESHA means Prabhu full of brightness.
Here, Sri Hanuman appears with a front face and sparkling eyes. Earlier, the village was also called KANTESHPURI on the name of Kantesha Hanuman.


Several thousands of years ago, Hanuman lived in this village. He once saw the Sun and mistaking it to be a fruit, began flying towards it. Since then, this village came to be known as Kadara Man Dalagi. (Kadar means rays, mandala is cluster of rays).


It is believed that King Janmejaya had set up the shrine to get rid of his difficulties.
There is a small pond on the right side of the kshetram where Teppotsava (Float festival) is celebrated.

Kanaka Dasa has praised Sri Kantesha in his various poetic compositions.


Kanaka Dasa was the first devotee to popularize the power of Kantesha. It is said that once Kanaka Dasa was deeply wounded in a battle. To seek blessings, he visited Tirupati but Sri Venkatesha appeared in his dream and advised him to see Kantesha first before seeing him.
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Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
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3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
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Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
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SK
SK
@sk_diary1
#sculpture #story -

Chandesha-Anugraha Murti - One of the Sculpture in Brihadeshwara Temple at Gangaikonda Cholapuram - built by Raja Rajendra Chola I

This Sculpture depicts Bhagwan Shiva along with Devi Paravathi blessing Chandeshwara - one of the 63 Nayanmars.

#Thread


Chandeshwara/Chandikeshwara is regarded as custodian of Shiva Temple's wealth&most of Shiva temples in South India has separate sannathi for him.

His bhakti for Bhagwan Shiva elevated him as one of foremost among Nayanmars.
He gave importance to Shiva Pooja&protection of cows.


There are series of paintings, illustrating the #story of Chandikeshwar in the premises of
Sri Sathiyagireeswarar #Temple at Seinganur,near Kumbakonam,TN

Chandikeshwara's birth name
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Abigail See
Abigail See
@abigail_e_see
Can we control the output of neural generation systems?
Can we build a better chatbot using this control?
And what makes a good conversation anyway?

Check out the blog post for our NAACL paper:

https://t.co/UAAUxSeA0L

#AI #NLProc #DeepLearning #ConversationalAI @facebookai

This post got a little delayed since the paper's publication, but the intervening time has given me an opportunity to reflect.

So this post has some extra thoughts regarding more recent NLG developments - e.g., pretrained models like GPT(2), and the suitability of beam search.
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