BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

 So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2

https://t.co/PY0ernQ73u
@Foodanddrinkfed They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3
@Foodanddrinkfed @EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4
As one EU official puts it: “You can’t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. It’s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
So what does that mean?

Well on the 'micro' front it means that businesses will start to split their supply lines between the EU and the UK...shrinking their UK footprint as a result. Take @AstonChemicals which supplies chems to cosmetics industry.... /5
@AstonChemicals As @DanilLoughran tells me, they shipped their last UK-EU load on Dec 18....now all the EU product will go into Poland. As a result her UK warehousing staff headcount has shrunk by one third. /6
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran Why? Because importing all the chemicals into the UK for distribution to EU makes no sense - they need dual registration, risk tariffs because of rules of origin + all the border delays and paperwork. So she hubs from Poland. /7

https://t.co/KwtJIWTNoa
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran It's a similar issue for Premium Plus UK, but as a dental devices importer, their issue is medical services directive that means EU importers must be responsible for goods them import (a legacy of bursting breast implants)...but makes it non-viable to hub from UK too. /8
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran For others like @reneewatson77 of Curiosity Box science kits, it's more wait and see if it makes sense to pay for dual certification - EU 'CE' mark and the UK's UKCA mark - which will cost her £20,000 her small business doesn't have. /9
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 Others like Kiran Tawadey of @hampsteadtea will get through by shift processes - more warehousing in German, but that means bigger loads and £65k-£75k to her base costs. How long she keeps basing of out the UK she isn't sure /10

https://t.co/4DIjZB00bX
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea All this will make life very interesting (to put it mildly) for those at the sharp end like Paul Jackson's @ChilternDist which has invested £1m in recent years in temperature-controlled distribution...and now waits to see how the border shakes down in practice. /11
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist Which is to say that #Brexit impact is not really about 'delays at the border'...it's the permanent, structural disadvantage of UK businesses vis-a-vis EU counterparts. i.e Those 'non-tariff barriers' that @BorisJohnson said did not exist (in a universe of alternative facts)/12
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson And the idea that UK business can 'just do more exporting to the rest of the world' overlooks the basic fact that they could do that as an EU member - but didn't, for a variety of existing reason. viz someone else doing it cheaper usually. /13
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson Brexiters love to defy economic gravity (particularly when it comes to services) but the economic reality is that competing with advanced economies on your door step is what keeps you productive - it provides economic muscle tone, because you have to compete /14
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson As @JohnSpringford explains to me beautifully, it is about specialisation and exchange: “The UK provides advertising to big business in Germany and big business provides the UK with cars" and it that process that we’re weakening by #Brexit /15
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson @JohnSpringford The net result is that UK workers shift into lower paid, less productive jobs over time and the UK will end up poorer relative to its EU peer-economies. That may even happen without anyone noticing - we don't live the counterfactual. /16
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson @JohnSpringford It may even be that the politicians who rode to power on the back of a bus emblazoned with alternative facts will continue to prosper politically, but you can't escape that they have signed essentially a reverse-cooperation agreement with the EU. Truly unique thing to do. 17/ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Another head-banging day for the £112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd


@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5
TAXATION BILL
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW. 🚨🚨🚛🇬🇧🙄🚛🚚🚨🚨 clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1



The idea is that 300 lorries a day will be granted 'fast track' permits so they can go back EU and replenish supplies...this is because (see below) the gov fears that potential for disruption is "high" /2


The 8-page consultation document notes this is both because of #Brexit but also because of #COVID19 and continued French insistence on checks on all drivers from UK. /3

Lots arriving in Kent without clear tests SO separately Dept for Transport is considering £150 fines for drivers that don't have clean tests before entering Kent - problem, say hauliers, is that this requires communicating with EU-based drivers (85% from EU) /4

The govt is worried that disruptions will risk the kind of panic-buying we saw in early #COVID19 pandemic /5
GOVERNMENT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here
GOVERNMENT

More from Brexit

Doom-Loop
Doom-Loop
@Doom_Loop
Bloody hell some ones built a hall of shame for the SNP.

https://t.co/qxyMnUS4iX


1. Derek Mackay sending text messages to a sixteen-year-old boy telling him he was really cute.

2. Mhairi Black bringing a drag queen called Flowjob to a primary school

3. Derek Mackay spending £230 million on ferries that were not built

4. John Swinney overseeing an exam fiasco leading to marks being inflated

5. John Swinney being responsible for teaching primary school children about anal sex, rimming and pornography.

6. Natalie McGarry resigned the SNP whip because of fraud offences relating to the Women for Independence group. She pleaded guilty was convicted and jailed, but later had the conviction quashed. She still faces trial for embezzlement.

7. SNP coverup over the Covid outbreak connected with Nike in Edinburgh

8. SNP Government involved in clinical waste storage scandal

9. SNP MPs Chris Law, Ian Blackford and Brendan O’Hara had expenses claims totally £760,000 from the UK Parliament. They were the three with the
BREXIT
Edwin Hayward \U0001f984 \U0001f5e1
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡...
@uk_domain_names
THREAD: Here are the essential points from the EU's time-limited, limited effect no-deal Brexit mitigation offer.

(Most concessions are unilateral measures it will implement. Some require UK cooperation - not clear what happens if we refuse to do

Air travel
"Unless there is a contingency measure in place on air transport at the end of the transition period, air traffic between the EU and the United Kingdom will be interrupted."

The EU is proposing 6 months of reciprocal concessions to keep (most) planes flying.


However, they're not offering any concessions on airline ownership requirements, so BA for one may come unstuck here (depending on how its restructured shareholding is going). Its message: you already had plenty of time to prepare, including a grace period.


Road transport

A) Haulage
With no agreement, hauliers would have to use ECMT permits to provide any freight transport between the UK and the EU. But there aren't nearly enough of those to go around. So they're giving a basic grace period of 6 months, as long as we reciprocate.


B) Bus services
"Furthermore, in the absence of an agreement on a future partnership between the EU and the United Kingdom by 1 January 2021, regular bus services to and from the United
Kingdom would have to be interrupted"

Here too, offer is 6 months of continued connectivity.
BREXIT
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ScottishPanda
ScottishPanda
@PandaScottish
[thread]

As we approach "the last throw of the dice"

I would like to do something I haven’t done enough of

Congratulations to 37.4% of the electorate

On the 23rd June 2016 you won

Congratulations

No one can take that away from you

You

Indeed I would like to be the first one to congratulate Boris Johnson

Whatever happens in the next few days

Well done Boris

Whether he gets as a deal

Or indeed no deal

Congratulations on the "win"

You will desperately sell what you won was a "win"

If a deal then with a sale of a side measure of scapegoating narrative as to why it wasn't better

If no deal then the side sale will be the scapegoating as to why

As it will always be someone else's fault

Can I firstly apologise - its obviously because I didn't believe enough or talked the country down

I am not certain which will be sold more desperately

A really shitty deal

or no deal
BREXIT
Bloke From Barnsley #Is #Sisu
Bloke From Barnsley #I...
@nickynoo007
1. It surprises me that on the whole pro Europeans on Twitter view themselves as pragmatists, who rely on evidence to form their opinion.
In fact a long running joke in our 'group' is that Brexit will be a roaring success, if we all just believe hard it will be a roaring success.

2. The last couple of weeks have made it clearer than ever that blind belief that is impervious to evidence and facts is not a leave/remain thing. It's a human thing

3. I was accused of lying and hounding a 'vulnerable' person off Twitter. When the victims of that 'vulnerable' got the same treatment, it became necessary to take action.

4. So I gathered evidence (not all, but enough) and wrote a blog with contributions from several others. Then the blog was checked by experts to ensure that it was neither libellous (to protect authors) or a risk to any possible legal action (to protect victims).

5. I naively thought that would put an end to the false accusations and trolling.
Since publishing I've been accused of having called the "vulnerable' person and threatened members of their family, forcing them to confess to the police
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
So many stories of new barriers to trade between UK and EU, but you might be thinking at some point these will run out. The government is certainly hoping so. Well they may slow down, but trade relations and regulations are not static, and changes will lead to further problems.

The likelihood of continued trade problems for a £650 bn trade relationship is why there should be a huge cross-government effort led by the Foreign Office and Department for International Trade to put in place the necessary resources to seek best results.

There isn't.

So the UK's relationship with the EU currently consists of two not particularly good deals and no consistent effort to manage current problems or prevent future ones. Joint committees are a second order problem to putting in place the right internal structures.

But that's been the consistent UK problem in relations with the EU since 2016. Lack of focus on getting the right internal structures, people, asks, strategy, too much attention on being tough and a single leader.

News just in. This doesn't necessarily mean the right structure being put into UK-EU relations. I suspect Frost's main role is to ensure no renegotiations with the EU.

Also, wonder what this says about the PM's trust in Michael Gove?
BREXIT

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1/ I am seeing more and more founder secondary in venture rounds (Secondary = founders selling some of their shares before some other shareholders are able). Series B-D. I see both as an investor and through entrepreneur circles.

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3/ Magnitude: My basic rule of thumb from what I see is market is 4+ yrs and up to 10% of founder’s equity stake with some $ cap that makes sense given stage etc. (typically <$10m)

4/ The entrepreneurial journey is brutally hard. Giving some financial relief helps remove one piece of pressure. I don’t think that secondary in the magnitude mentioned impacts the drive/persistence of great entrepreneurs.

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@drawandstrike
A lot of people don't understand that Trump & his incoming team didn't face a normal transition period, like it was over a in a matter of a few weeks or months.

The DOJ transition period JUST ENDED when Sessions left. Almost 2 exact years to get it there.

Pompeo at the CIA took over a year before he was done and ready to shift over to the State Department.

All kinds of stuff has been going on behind the scenes nobody leaks or talks about.

We only had the barest mention of the fact the Clinton Email investigation restarted

Nobody leaked in a year that Huber was deep diving into the Clinton Foundation.
Keep that in mind as all the usual suspects continue to INSIST nothing is happening/going to happen.
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Want to do an MBA for free ?

A thread 👇

1) Leadership: Foundations of Teamwork and Leadership

School: wharton

2) Marketing: Marketing Management

School: wharton

3) Microeconomics: Microeconomics for Managers

School:

4) Financial Theory

School:
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Thread 🧵explaining #ROE & #ROCE and its use in #FundamentalAnalysis

(Must read for #FA learners)

🙏Like & RT to spread learning with all 🙏

Views Welcome 👉 @dmuthuk @Vivek_Investor @datta_arvind @caniravkaria @FI_InvestIndia @AdityaD_Shah

#FundamentalAnalysis #StockMarket


1⃣

Return on Equity (#ROE) and Return on Capital Employed (#ROCE) are two important Financial Ratios used in #FundamentalAnalysis of Stocks.

#StockMarket #Investing

2⃣

Return on Equity (ROE) is the ratio of Net Income (Net Profit) of a company and it’s Total Equity (Shareholder's Equity).

Here - Shareholders Equity = Share Capital + Reserves & Surplus.

#StockMarket #Investing #FundamentalAnalysis


3⃣

#ROE is a measure of how much net profit a company is making for every rupee invested by its shareholders in the company.

It can be said that higher the ROE, better it is for the equity shareholders. It tells shareholders about how effectively their money is being used.

4⃣

However, you should not trust high ROE blindly. Biggest drawbacks or weaknesses of ROE is that it completely ignores debt.

Hence for companies having high levels of debt, ROE will give a higher but misleading value & therefore we need to look at #ROCE along with #ROE.
ACCOUNTING , FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS , ROE VS ROCE ANALYSIS
Novid Houellebecq (That's Hollaback)
Novid Houellebecq (Tha...
@GarouGothic
Ok, here is a thread for you.
What happens when you have:
Netflix
Apple
Amazon
WarnerMedia +
Disney+
SonyCrackle (Reboot)
Verizon All Access (after they buy CBS/Viacom)
UniversalSkyMedia
By 2021
Answer? Internet Slows To A Craw and Dies.
Why?
Bandwidth.

Netflix's gets 35% of all internet traffic.
Now we all know Apple Coming to Netflix Corner.
We know that WarnerMedia Planning One
We Know about Disney+
Now how will the net handle 8 Streaming Platforms all at once?
Answer - IT CANT.

But Novid, the speed, the 4K the all everything?
NOOOOO BUDDY.
Even if you could do it and even if AWS ran six million clouds, The Net Will still slow to a crawl. 35%, goes to nearly 90% if any of the 8 or all of the 8 eat at netflix's numbers.

Oh, they wouldn't be running at once.
FOOL. You forget how bad things were when game of thrones season premieres came around. HBO SERVERS FALL DOWN GO BOOM!

Now see if a season like 2021 come around and they air shows on a same day. It gets crazy. AT&T and others gonna realize they cant build out forever. Something will give and it might be your entertainment consumption big time.
TECH