BC BREXIT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

 So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2

https://t.co/PY0ernQ73u
@Foodanddrinkfed They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3
@Foodanddrinkfed @EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4
As one EU official puts it: “You can’t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. It’s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
So what does that mean?

Well on the 'micro' front it means that businesses will start to split their supply lines between the EU and the UK...shrinking their UK footprint as a result. Take @AstonChemicals which supplies chems to cosmetics industry.... /5
@AstonChemicals As @DanilLoughran tells me, they shipped their last UK-EU load on Dec 18....now all the EU product will go into Poland. As a result her UK warehousing staff headcount has shrunk by one third. /6
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran Why? Because importing all the chemicals into the UK for distribution to EU makes no sense - they need dual registration, risk tariffs because of rules of origin + all the border delays and paperwork. So she hubs from Poland. /7

https://t.co/KwtJIWTNoa
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran It's a similar issue for Premium Plus UK, but as a dental devices importer, their issue is medical services directive that means EU importers must be responsible for goods them import (a legacy of bursting breast implants)...but makes it non-viable to hub from UK too. /8
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran For others like @reneewatson77 of Curiosity Box science kits, it's more wait and see if it makes sense to pay for dual certification - EU 'CE' mark and the UK's UKCA mark - which will cost her £20,000 her small business doesn't have. /9
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 Others like Kiran Tawadey of @hampsteadtea will get through by shift processes - more warehousing in German, but that means bigger loads and £65k-£75k to her base costs. How long she keeps basing of out the UK she isn't sure /10

https://t.co/4DIjZB00bX
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea All this will make life very interesting (to put it mildly) for those at the sharp end like Paul Jackson's @ChilternDist which has invested £1m in recent years in temperature-controlled distribution...and now waits to see how the border shakes down in practice. /11
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist Which is to say that #Brexit impact is not really about 'delays at the border'...it's the permanent, structural disadvantage of UK businesses vis-a-vis EU counterparts. i.e Those 'non-tariff barriers' that @BorisJohnson said did not exist (in a universe of alternative facts)/12
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson And the idea that UK business can 'just do more exporting to the rest of the world' overlooks the basic fact that they could do that as an EU member - but didn't, for a variety of existing reason. viz someone else doing it cheaper usually. /13
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson Brexiters love to defy economic gravity (particularly when it comes to services) but the economic reality is that competing with advanced economies on your door step is what keeps you productive - it provides economic muscle tone, because you have to compete /14
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson As @JohnSpringford explains to me beautifully, it is about specialisation and exchange: “The UK provides advertising to big business in Germany and big business provides the UK with cars" and it that process that we’re weakening by #Brexit /15
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson @JohnSpringford The net result is that UK workers shift into lower paid, less productive jobs over time and the UK will end up poorer relative to its EU peer-economies. That may even happen without anyone noticing - we don't live the counterfactual. /16
@AstonChemicals @DanilLoughran @reneewatson77 @hampsteadtea @ChilternDist @BorisJohnson @JohnSpringford It may even be that the politicians who rode to power on the back of a bus emblazoned with alternative facts will continue to prosper politically, but you can't escape that they have signed essentially a reverse-cooperation agreement with the EU. Truly unique thing to do. 17/ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The UK refusing to give full diplomatic status the EU's mission in London is baffling at at time when @BorisJohnson is trying to connect with @JoeBiden - because it recalls what Trump administration did to the EU ambassador back in 2019. Stay with

@JoeBiden The spat has been going for a while - we reported it in May, when the #Brexit trade talks were getting testy and - I assumed - it was the UK seeking a bit of leverage as the talks progressed. But we have a deal...and still no deal on the EU

@JoeBiden Essentially the UK government wants to treat the @EUdelegationUK as a "international organisation based in London" - and not accord it full diplomatic status, as almost every other country in the world does, including the United States /3

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK Indeed when EU formed it's External Action Service (EEAS) the UK supported the idea that EU representatives should be full ambassadors - a fact reflected in the Treaty of Lisbon which we signed - and which reflected on fact EU had a currency, made laws etc. /4

@JoeBiden @EUdelegationUK It took some time for everyone to recognise this, but after @BarackObama came to power in 2016 even the USA did the same....then along came Donald Trump and in 2019 surreptitiously downgraded the status of the EU ambassador @D0Sullivan /4
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd


@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5
TAXATION BILL
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: 🚨🚨🇫🇷🇬🇧🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🇫🇷🇬🇧🚢🚢🚢🚨🚨 The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also don’t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread


So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a £200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc..

Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than £450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3

So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over £194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...£33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for £33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4


Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇮🇪🚚🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3


@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚒🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨🚨 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? 😬 Stay with me. 1/


So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2

It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4


So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
BREXIT

More from Brexit

Bobby McDonagh
Bobby McDonagh
@BobbyMcDonagh1
A Christmas Carol. My Brexit “take” on a popular seasonal tale. Happy Christmas everyone @mrjamesob @campbellclaret @chrisgreybrexit @rafaelbehr

It was Christmas Eve in Downing Street. PM Ebenezer Johnson was sitting alone in his office, colouring in a picture of sunny uplands. He was looking forward to a jolly Christmas and a glorious future for his country.

Suddenly there was a knock at the door and a wraith materialised in the semi-darkness. “I am”, he announced, “the Ghost of Christmas Past”. “What ho”, replied the PM, “what can I do for you? “

The ghost explained that he had been living in the attic of Number 10 since Winston Churchill’s day. Ever since It has been his practice to appear every Christmas Eve to update the PM on the country’s progress.

Over many decades, the ghost had been able to report on the great influence the UK had come to wield, in Europe and beyond, by working closely with its European neighbours; and on how the UK had used its sovereignty effectively to advance its interests.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
BREXIT
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Buck Frexit! \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f49c\U0001f499\U0001f30d #FBPE #ElectoralReform
Buck Frexit! 🇪🇺💜💙🌍 #FB...
@Beany_1
Project fear - a media friendly term which at one stroke, mocked the expertise of those at many of the coal faces of Brexit and dismissed it with a sneer. Yet, just 9 days in, it looks very much like project fear predictions were true and should have been heeded.

Thread

Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.


Project fear was not a myth. It was the truth.
BREXIT
Chris Randone
Chris Randone
@ChrisRandone
Many bearish sentiments across the mortgage sector because they believe companies won't succeed as much when rate finally go back up (3 maybe 4 years from now). Which makes sense except for $GHIV and here's why. In 2016 Brexit came & rates went down which lead to huge success...

in mortgages. Business was great for many companies but then in ‘17 and ‘18, rates went up. What happened you might ask? A lot of people got compressed, margins got compressed, rates went down, & people struggled in the mortgage market...

Well UWM ( $GHIV ) compound annual growth rate, from ‘16 to ’18, was 28%. Companies that focused on refi struggled, so obviously a very successful company like Rocket or Quicken, they went down 14% in compound annual growth rate in those years...

$GHIV actually grew, and so did their profits, so the opportunity to continue to grow in all cycles is a big differentiator for UWM, and the broker channel versus a lot of our competitors. When rates rise, it's actually even better for $GHIV (UWM)..

If rates stay low, great UWM will continue to crush but when the rates rise, they will continue to steal even more market share because of how they operate in the mortgage sector. People also talk about the speed in closing a loan & that other competitors are faster...
BREXIT
Rem Korteweg
Rem Korteweg
@remkorteweg
On March 17, the Netherlands will have general elections.

Two parties - PVV & FVD - want a Nexit, a departure from the EU, in line with Brexit.

As the reality of the EU-UK trade agreement kicks in, let's take a look at what these parties

Firstly, good to note, here is their recent polling,

PVV: 14% - 23 seats (currently 20 seats)
FVD: 2.5% - 4 seats (currently 2 seats)

A government needs 76 seats to govern.

Give or take, these parties appeal to about 20% of the electorate.

/2

FVD wants a so-called "intelligent Nexit" because - arguably - they think the UK's departure was not-so-intelligent.

"Intelligent" Nexit. Lots of nodding

But FVD doesn't want to leave the EU, they want an end to the EU.

/3

They want a "different cooperation model among sovereign states" based around free trade, conveniently assuming that the EU will automatically cease to exist once the Dutch vote 'Leave'.

And EFTA should be the basis for the new model.

/4

It's full-on 'magical thinking'.

If you want to join EFTA, sure, make the case.

But be truthful about what it means.

The FVD decides to disregard the EEA agreement, which governs trade between the EFTA-4 and the EU27, and the EU rules and regs that EFTA countries follow.

/5
BREXIT

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Mo Rajabifard
Mo Rajabifard
@morajabi
👨‍💻 Last resume I sent to a startup one year ago, sharing with you to get ideas:

- Forget what you don't have, make your strength bold
- Pick one work experience and explain what you did in detail w/ bullet points
- Write it towards the role you apply
- Give social proof

/thread


"But I got no work experience..."

Make a open source lib, make a small side project for yourself, do freelance work, ask friends to work with them, no friends? Find friends on Github, and Twitter.

Bonus points:

- Show you care about the company: I used the company's brand font and gradient for in the resume for my name and "Thank You" note.
- Don't list 15 things and libraries you worked with, pick the most related ones to the role you're applying.
-🙅‍♂️"copy cover letter"

"I got no firends, no work"

One practical way is to reach out to conferences and offer to make their website for free. But make sure to do it good. You'll get:

- a project for portfolio
- new friends
- work experience
- learnt new stuff
- new thing for Twitter bio

If you don't even have the skills yet, why not try your chance for @LambdaSchool? No? @freeCodeCamp. Still not? Pick something from here and learn https://t.co/7NPS1zbLTi
You'll feel very overwhelmed, no escape, just acknowledge it and keep pushing.
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Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
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ARULMIGU SRI PARTHASARATHY SWAMY KSHETRAM, CHENNAI (TN)

Divya Desha where Perumal appears with moustache of a Sarathi (charioteer) to conduct Arjun’s Rath in Kurukshetra war.
Here, Venkatkrishna-Parthasarthy is present with his entire family.


He is flanked by Sri Rukmini, Sri Balarama, Satyaki, son Pradyumn and grandson Anirudha.
It is said that on the request of Raja Sumathirajan, Sri Perumal appeared and stayed here as Arjun’s charioteer (Partha-sarathi).


He is without chakra as he had promised not to wield weapons in Mahabharata war.
The face has scars caused by Bhishma’s arrows on Arjun. Prabhu took the arrows on himself to protect Arjun.


The Naivedyam offered here does not have spices. Ghee is used in it to cure Prabhu’s wounds. Sarkarai Pongal is famous here.

It is said that Rishi Bhrigu found Devi Lakshmi (as Vedvalli) in Alli flower in the mandir pushkarini. Later, Sri Ranganatha came here to marry her.
ALL
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🇺🇸 Jules 🇺🇸...
@mayweliveasONE
2021 Predictions‼️

Made by James Howard Kunstler

👇🏻👀

Kunstler is said to be one of the best thinkers and authors of our modern era. He’s well known as an expert in energy economics, among other topics.

He is NOT a fan of Trump which makes his predictions even more interesting.

1) The election is re-adjudicated, fraud subtracted from the tally, and President Trump is declared the winner.

2) The mail-in vote for the Georgia Senate seat runoff is disqualified as systematic fraud is revealed. Stacy Abrams is indicted for organizing the fraud.

3) A number of political celebrities, DC swamp rats, K-Street hustlers, media figures, and tech company executives are arrested and charged with serious crimes around election fraud.

4) The CIA is purged and reduced to a strictly analytical role for advising the executive.
FOR LATER READ
Jig's Patel
Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988
Thread on
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"

(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)

-Trade timing after 9:45

-Check Banknifty change in OI data at 9:45, and identify the highest OI built up in call side and put side

-We will sell both strikes with combined premium as SL on both legs.
(2/n)

28th June 2021

BN open-35440
At 9:45 trading at 35350
Highest OI in call side at 35500 CE and 35000 at put side
Strike selection 35500 CE- 35000 PE
(3/n)


29th June 2021

BN open-35323

At 9:45 trading at 35112

Highest OI in call side at 35300 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35300 CE (232) - 35000 PE (150) Combined premium 382 , Both legs SL 382
(4/n)


30th June 2021

BN open-35030

At 9:45 trading at 35002

Highest OI in call side at 35000 CE and 35000 at put side

Strike selection 35000 CE(176)- 35000 PE(213) Combined premium 389 , Both legs SL 389
(5/n)
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTION SELLING , ALL
Eric Holthaus
Eric Holthaus
@EricHolthaus
JUST IN: The U.S. National Climate Assessment is now public.

This is the report that the Trump Administration doesn’t want you to see. Years in the making, released on the day after Thanksgiving. #ClimateFriday

Here are some of the main

This report is mandated by Congress and focused on the impacts of climate change in the U.S.

Basically: This is what our best scientists think will happen to us as a result of the actions our government is (not) taking to address the most important problem in human history.
/2

300 experts in 13 federal agencies volunteered their time to make sure you have this information.

Please share it widely.
/3

The top finding:

“Climate change is projected to significantly affect human health, the economy, and the environment in the United

To expand on that finding:

“In the absence of more significant global mitigation efforts, climate change is projected to impose substantial damages on the U.S. economy, human health, and the environment. ...”
/5
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