EXCERCISE, showing how Discount Rates impact Valuation, using $NFLX as an example.

Why?

“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices"

--- Warren Buffett

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The Futures curve is pricing in 8 Interest rate increases, or +210bp that the ANALYTS at Investment Banks have NOT yet adjusted for in Models

Investment Banks typically use the 10yr Bond, + Equity risk Premium + Beta Adjustment to arrive at a Discount Rate😉

Cont ..

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Scenario 1 - Use todays scenario Consensus (Factset) with a 7% Discount Rate, gets +10% upside in Share price for $NFLX to $416 (36.3x P/E)

Yet ...

(3/4)
Scenario 2 - Same Consensus forecast but add 210bp to the Discount Rate. Surprise Surprise😉 Now there is -31% to todays Share price, with a price of $263 (22.9x P/E)

What do you choose 🧐❓
This is why there is always a focus on the 10 Yr Bond, as Equities are priced to Bonds & the cashflow they can generate

Now you can see how sensitive valuations can be to changes in Interest Rates. The Bond Market is pricing in rises, YET Analysts at Investments Banks have not

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Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.

Please add your own.

2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you


3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.

“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”

“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”

4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:

“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”

“What’s end-game here?”

“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”

5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:

“What would the best version of yourself do”?