Uvlearnings | Buzz Chronicles

In hindsight this is how a gruesome business would look like ::

Pricing power

Sticky and mandatory consumption

30-35% ROCE once optimal capacity utilisation is reached and asset has depreciated

170x stock returns excluding dividends over 25 years

D: I’ve been averaging up

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

S1 : Majority NBE/NCE R&D projects fail. CDMO partner to that innovator "makes money in all failed" cases.

S2 : CDMO "may make larger money" in those lucky, successful (thin minority) cases, if the same #CDMO is retained as the manufacturing partner.

Extract from 2018 tweet 👇

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

There are many such from @oraunak @soicfinance @jeevanpatwa and https://t.co/208eQbYKEF #22 by @tusharbohra

My advice would be - invest time in researching how and why synthetic biology and #biotechnology be disrupting many petro derived chemicals, textiles and other materials.

Binoy Shah
@shahbinoys21

@SarvpriyaGupta @unseenvalue Here you

My 15 small and mid sized pharma for 15Y

\u26a0\ufe0f~5 can go bust (0)

No trading. No questions. Your money. Your conviction. Your due diligence!

Albert David
DCAL
FDC
Indoco
JB Pharma
Jubilant Life
Laurus
Natco
Neuland
RPG Life
SeQuent
SMS Pharma
Solara
Strides
Syngene

| Pharma \U0001f489\U0001f48a
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) December 20, 2019

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

You offer me 80% cost arbitrage (discount relative to Japan/EU/US) along with low confidence / assurance on Critical Success Factors and I won't give you a single NCE/NBE to discover, develop or manufacture. Capex/opex arbitrage is too low in the disruptive-science-pecking-order! https://t.co/O2l8dK4BUv

@unseenvalue Given high capex/opex cost structures of US/Japan/EU, how will they be able to compete with Indian API companies? https://t.co/OYhC2PUZpL
— Hiren (@hiren_investing) August 11, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Not all chemicals companies are expensive today. I’d screen those where current EV/Sales is in 3-5x range and more importantly where the capex is set to unfold that should improve ROE, ROCE and EV/Sales. It’s more about the individual business cycle leading to earnings growth …

Punit
@punitbansal14

API + CDMO + Fermentation = Future

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

FCF = Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash after adjusting for working capital - total Capex)

MCap is based on last Friday's closing.

Q :: What stocks?
A :: “Bhaiya Ji Smile ... Kamaal karte ho Pandey jee ...” 😅

Disc: invested in the 3 businesses at single digit MCap/10Y FCF 😉

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Many stock specific questions on my DM or otherwise remain unanswered. Have shared my thesis, process/framework over many months and would encourage you all to find your own process that suits your very own genome. Learn to do that hard leg-work. Put that effort. Survive. Thrive.

[Free CDMO Masterclass #18] https://t.co/208eQbYKEF

[Free Art of Investing] https://t.co/bHvUqnpiTE

[Paid IIC Dec 2020 on SeQuent] https://t.co/3iDO438Et9

[Charity fund raise on Unseen Trends in Biotechnology] https://t.co/eNi1x1qwhH

[Q&A on APIs] https://t.co/EQGz007a9S
— Conviction | Patience (@unseenvalue) July 25, 2021

ARUN KP
@AKP111789

Another gem from @AdityaKhemka5 sir

Opportunity in Health care Sector Cont.. Interview with Aditya Khemka FM... https://t.co/vOHvrYCUQ4 via @YouTube

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Domestic pharma's Acute was disrupted in FY21 due to Covid and most businesses are sitting on a low FY21 base. They can grow handsomely not only this fiscal, but also medium to long term. If a debt-free businesses can do 20-25% ROCE despite Covid, what can be the FY23e EV/Sales?

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Context ::

https://t.co/jKwBEs81CB

Listen from around 2:21:00

#CDMO

$Tar \u26a1$

Tar ⚡
@itsTarH

Of all the CDMO plays, I like Bio-Tech CDMOs 🧬 the best.

1️⃣ High barriers to entry
2️⃣ Long gestation periods
3️⃣ Demand that never seems to end
4️⃣ Hockey Stick Growth as molecules move from Phase 1 to Phase 3
5️⃣ Sticky Business and

StockEdge
@mystockedge

Competence is something that sets investors apart!

Join @vivbajaj and Sajal Kapoor and learn the importance and LEARN HOW: https://t.co/NguCUN2WWl

#investing #investments #stockmarketindia #stockmarketeducation #nifty

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@harindersnanda @FortuneIndia https://t.co/64WUswITen

Listen to this one (timestamp 2:35)
#KRAS mutation

$Tar \u26a1$

Tar ⚡
@itsTarH

If you want to learn about pharma CDMO industry market, this is a gem of a resource.

Available whenever you get your podcasts.

Wherever*

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Proof of pudding is in eating

https://t.co/WhcL2pcTaJ

#Biocon @RemindMe_OfThis on 1 May 2022

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Bolo Jaikara Bicara 🇮🇳🇺🇸

#Bicara presented clinical data from the lead immunotherapy program, BCA101, at ASCO 2021 - June 2021

Title: First-in-human phase I study of the bifunctional EGFR/TGF\u03b2 fusion protein BCA101 in patients with EGFR-driven advanced solid cancers

Unseen Bicara Pipeline\U0001f9ec https://t.co/bMhtUEnw0C pic.twitter.com/cz6V5BLeuc
— Punit (@punitbansal14) June 17, 2021

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala asked great questions on CDMO. Made me Jubilant on Zooming😉

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Most stocks are fit for short term trading. Not every business will compound wealth over the long term. Some commonly used proxies for long term compounding 'potential' (in alphabetic order) ::

Cash flow per share
Earnings per share
Scientists per share
Tweets per share

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